UFC 301 Odds: Erceg vs. Pantoja Odds and Prediction

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Last Updated: April 16, 2024
ufc 301 pantoja

UFC 300 is in the books, which makes it the perfect time to start betting UFC 301 odds. The next UFC PPV is scheduled for Saturday, May 4th, at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. An exciting Flyweight title bout will headline it as Alexandre Pantoja looks to defend his bet against Steve Erceg.

You can bet on the UFC online and take advantage of the best odds for every bout on the UFC 301 fight card. Continue reading to see the latest odds and my free betting predictions for UFC 301.

UFC 301 Odds

After a PPV with three title fights, UFC 301 will have just one belt on the line. Plenty of well-known fighters and younger talent will compete in Brazil.

Check out the table below for the current UFC 301 odds, courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook.

Favorite Underdog UFC 301 Prediction
Vitor Petrino (-375) Anthony Smith (+290) Vitor Petrino (-375)
Caio Borralho (-325) Paul Craig (+260) Caio Borralho (-325)
Jonathan Martinez (-115) Jose Aldo (-105) Jose Aldo (-105)
Alexandre Pantoja (-260) Steve Erceg (+210) Alexandre Pantoja (-260)

Michel Pereira was also scheduled to compete against Makhmud Muradov. However, Muradov withdrew from the fight due to an infection. Pereira, a native of Brazil, is still scheduled to compete, but he will be facing a new opponent.

Pantoja (-260) is favored to retain his Flyweight Championship in the main event. UFC Legend Jose Aldo is a slight underdog at -105 in the co-main event against Jonathan Martinez. Paul Craig (+260) and Anthony Smith (+290) are both UFC veterans, but they are both underdogs in their respective flights.

UFC 301 Prelim and Early Prelim Predictions

Nine exciting prelim and early prelim fights will take place before the main card kicks off. Here are the latest UFC 301 betting odds and my predictions for these exciting bouts.

Favorite Underdog UFC 301 Prelim Prediction
Ismael Bonfim (-400) Vinc Pichel (+300) Ismael Bonfim (-400)
Mauricio Ruffy (-130) Jamie Mullarkey (+110) Jamie Mullarkey (+110)
Iasmin Lucindo (-300) Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+240) Iasmin Lucindo (-300)
Jean Silva (-120) William Gomis (+100) Jean Silva (-120)
Myktybek Orolbai (-230) Elves Brener (+190) Myktybek Orolbai (-230)
Joanderson Brito (-150) Jack Shore (+125) Jack Shore (+125)
Dione Barbosa (-175) Ernesta Kareckaite (+145) Dione Barbosa (-175)
Alessandro Costa (-145) Kevin Borjas (+120) Kevin Borjas (+120)
Drakkar Klose (-165) Joaquim Silva (+135) Drakkar Klose (-165)

Who Will Michel Pereira Face at UFC 301?

As I mentioned above, Brazilian UFC fighter Michel Pereira is scheduled to compete on the UFC 301 main card. His original opponent, Makhmud Muradov, withdrew for medical reasons. Pereira will instead face Ihor Potieria (21-5), which is 2-3 so far in the UFC.

Potieria has struggled at Middleweight since joining the promotion. Pereira, on the other hand, has racked up seven straight wins since reigning in his flashy fighting style. I expect Pereira’s winning streak to continue, especially with the crowd behind him.

Vitor Petrino (-375) vs. Anthony Smith (+290)

Speaking of struggling lately in the UFC, Anthony Smith (37-19) is just 1-3 in his last four UFC fights. The one-time Light Heavyweight title challenger has fallen off significantly in the last few years. Unfortunately for Smith, he will not have an easy night at the office against the undefeated Vitor Petrino (11-0).


Petrino is nearly a decade younger than Smith, and despite being two inches shorter, he will have an inch-and-a-half reach advantage. That reach advantage should be all Petrino needs to utilize his striking power to secure the win. Petrino has seven KO wins in his career, including four in the first round.

Smith is no slouch on his feet, securing 19 KO wins in his career. However, he has also been knocked out 10 times in MMA. Two of his last three losses have been by knockout, including his most recent loss to Khalil Rountree in December.

I hope Smith looks better than he has in recent appearances. However, I am picking Petrino to get the win and extend his streak to 12-0 in his career.

Prediction: Vitor Petrino (-375)

Caio Borralho (-325) vs. Paul Craig (+260)

Up next is the Middleweight fight between Caio Borralho (-325) and Paul Craig (+260). Borralho (15-1) has won 14 straight fights and is 5-0 in the UFC so far. Craig has not been as successful lately, losing three of his last four fights in the UFC.

To make matters worse, Craig has been finished in two of those three losses. Brendan Allen submitted him in November, and Johnny Walker knocked him out at UFC 283.

Borralho won two fights on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021 to earn his UFC contract. He debuted two years ago and has quickly climbed the UFC Middleweight hierarchy. Borralho is currently ranked 15th in the division and could climb higher with a win over the 13th-ranked Craig.

Sports betting sites list Borralho as the favorite, and I believe he will be victorious in his home country of Brazil. The bigger question is whether Borralho will be able to secure a finish. So far, Borralho has just one finish in the UFC, with his other four wins coming by unanimous decision.

Prediction: Caio Borralho (-325)

Jonathan Martinez (-115) vs. Jose Aldo (-105)

The co-main event for this PPV is a Bantamweight fight pitting Jonathan Martinez (-115) vs. Jose Aldo (-105). Aldo is a former UFC Featherweight champion but has spent the last few years competing at Bantamweight.


This will be Aldo’s first MMA fight since UFC 278 in August 2022. He has looked better in his recent appearances, winning three of his last four fights. However, Aldo is just 3-4 in his last seven fights.

Jonathan Martinez is the slight betting favorite for this co-main event. Martinez has won six straight fights, including two by leg kicks. He has 11 finishes in his professional career, including nine by knockout.

Aldo has also relied on his striking, securing 16 knockouts in his professional career. On paper, this bout is set up to be an exciting, fast-paced striking contest. In the end, though, I believe that Aldo will pull off the upset and end Martinez’s winning streak.

Prediction: Jose Aldo (-105)

Alexandre Pantoja (-260) vs. Steve Erceg (+210)

The UFC Featherweight title will be on the line in the UFC 301 main event. Alexandre Pantoja (-260) is a moderate favorite to retain his title against Steve Erceg (+210).

Pantoja (27-5) has won five straight fights, including two matchups with the Flyweight title on the line. He won the belt from Brandon Moreno at UFC 290. Then, Pantoja earned his first successful title defense against Brandon Royval at UFC 296 in December.


The champion has earned 18 finishes in his 27 career wins. Pantoja has eight KO wins and 10 submission victories as a pro.

Erceg (12-1) is not nearly as experienced as Pantoja. But the Australian has won 10 straight fights, including his first three bouts in the UFC. His most recent appearance was a second-round knockout win over Matt Schnell in March.

This is only Erceg’s fourth fight in the UFC, but he is already ranked 10th in the division. The young fighter should have a bright future in the company, but I am concerned about how quickly his first title shot is coming. I believe Erceg needs more experience before he can beat a guy like Pantoja, and I am picking the champion to retain at UFC 301.

Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja (-260)

What Is the Best Sportsbooks for UFC 301 Betting Odds?

The UFC 301 fight card is full of exciting matchups. You can wager on all of the fights for this MMA PPV at Bovada Sportsbook. This secure sports betting site has betting markets for every UFC PPV, including UFC 301.

Bovada makes it easy to fund your account, too, thanks to its exciting sports betting bonuses. The welcome bonus at this sportsbook is worth up to $750 in extra funds. You can wager on a variety of markets as well, including exciting UFC 301 props for every fight.

The user interface at Bovada is top-notch, so you can quickly find all the betting odds for this UFC PPV. You can also use betting tools, such as the parlay builder, to create your perfect betting ticket for UFC 301.

Who Are You Betting on at UFC 301?

The UFC is heading to Brazil for its next PPV event this May. Check out the list above to see the latest UFC 301 odds and my predictions for this MMA event. I break down every fight on the main card, too, and give insight into the fighters taking center stage in Rio de Janeiro.

My predictions can help you make the right picks for this upcoming PPV. Real money sportsbooks, such as Bovada, give you the chance to bet on every fight. Sign up for an account today to start wagering on all your favorite sports, including MMA.

Shaun Stack

Shaun Stack, a native of the state of Kansas, has been a lifelong fan of all sports. Shaun has a Bachelor of Science in Psychology from the University of Pittsburgh Bradford. He has been writing for GamblingSites.org for several years, covering a wide range of topics. ...

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Email the author at: shaunstack@gamblingsites.org
Shaun Stack

Shaun Stack, a native of the state of Kansas, has been a lifelong fan of all sports. Shaun ...

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