This group brings together the best thinkers on energy and climate. Join us for smart, insightful posts and conversations about where the energy industry is and where it is going.

Post

What will Brazil's power strategy be?

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Consultant energy affairs, Self employed

Rafael Herzberg - is an independent energy consultant, self-employed (since 2018) based in São Paulo, Brazil * Focus on C level, VPs and upper managers associated to energy related info,...

  • Member since 2003
  • 2,605 items added with 1,506,651 views
  • Sep 20, 2021
  • 904 views

What will Brazil's power strategy be?

Two scenarios (and their variants) are worth considering.

1) Brazil maintaining its economic growth in the pattern of the last decades and thus remaining in the platoon of poor countries (GDP per ca-pita) and

2) Reaching the level of the developed ones.

If it is to maintain the current status, our energy policy is OK. Otherwise it will be important to figure out a strategy for making the transition. This is because our per ca-pita electricity consumption is in the order of 2 500 kWh/year. Developed countries consume between three and five times this amount.

To start, how will the country make investments of 1 Trillion Dollars to install the necessary generation, transmission and distribution capacity?

What type of matrix will be made possible by complying with the global requirements for reducing emissions to which Brazil has committed?

We urgently need a strategy. Or will we prefer to remain poor?

Discussions
Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Sep 20, 2021

To start, how will the country make investments of 1 Trillion Dollars to install the necessary generation, transmission and distribution capacity?

When funds become available, is there a typical allocation process Brazil follows to determine the right regions to receive investment, what projects are the best use of funds, etc.? 

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Rafael Herzberg on Sep 21, 2021

Our tradition in Brazil is focusing on the projected consumption growth which has been very modest. Typically 1,5 times de GDP growth. So if GDP grows 1% a year, power consumption grows 1,5%. 

But if the country is interested in achieving a better standard of living this rationale should be improved, considering higher GDP growth and the associated poower consumption growth.

It seems to me, however, that the ongoing system (which is so for centuries) doesn't care about the pooor people. So there is no drive to change. Most of our population of 200 million is poor. Our GDP per capta is about 1/3 to 1/4 of the developed nations....but who cares?

And now focusing on your question. The political reality tells that the projects that are defined depend primarily on the interestes of the "owners" of the Ministry of Mines and Energy and their friends. An emblematic example. There is this huge stated owned company (Eletrobras) that is supposed to be privatized "soon". Accordingly it is associated to future power projects involving several gas driven power plants where there is no supply in the Amazon area. So gas will have to be shipped using the rivers - it is way more expensive than going for hydro, wind and solar. But of course the local polititians have already "crafted" their solutions which will benefit their groups. It doensn't make any technical/financial sense. It is not by chance that the Brazilian power price (in USD/MWh) is the most expensive amonfg the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Thank Rafael for the Post!
Energy Central contributors share their experience and insights for the benefit of other Members (like you). Please show them your appreciation by leaving a comment, 'liking' this post, or following this Member.
More posts from this member

Get Published - Build a Following

The Energy Central Power Industry Network® is based on one core idea - power industry professionals helping each other and advancing the industry by sharing and learning from each other.

If you have an experience or insight to share or have learned something from a conference or seminar, your peers and colleagues on Energy Central want to hear about it. It's also easy to share a link to an article you've liked or an industry resource that you think would be helpful.

                 Learn more about posting on Energy Central »