Ethiopia lurches towards civil war

FOR SEVERAL days the warning lights had been flashing red. Early in the morning of October 29th a general in Ethiopia’s federal army had flown to the northern region of Tigray to take up his new position as deputy commander of forces in the region. He was refused entry. In Mekelle, the regional capital, rumours swirled of troop movements across the state border in the Amhara region, as well as in Eritrea, a country to its north. Throughout Tigray young men had been armed and trained. On November 2nd its president said the region was preparing for war.

War may have begun. On November 4th Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, ordered his forces to hit back in response to what he claimed was an “attack” by Tigray’s ruling party on a base housing federal troops. “The red line has been crossed,” he said. Early reports suggest there had been a heavy exchange of artillery fire around Mekelle and on the border with Amhara. The internet and phone networks in Tigray were cut off. Abiy has declared a state of emergency in the region. In a television address he said the fighting had resulted in casualties, though he did not say how many. As The Economist went to press it was unclear whether the conflict would be limited to a brief skirmish or might blow up into a full-scale war.