Aside from an upgrade, an empty middle seat has been the holy grail for economy passengers. Coveted so much, it has been monetized as airlines from Aer Lingus to Vietnam Airlines guaranteed an empty middle seat for a fee. There’s even software airlines can license to improve blocked seat sales.
Now airlines are promising all passengers an empty middle seat as flights increase while travellers are mindful of social distancing.
But it won’t last long. Alaska Airlines
Not selling every middle seat challenges the density economics that travel and tourism rely on.
Filling only two out of three seats gives a load factor of 67%, below the 75% break-even load factor IATA estimates for airlines. But there is little cost in the short-term from blocking middle seats since most flights are far from full.
There are few expectations this will continue in the medium-term, which would otherwise prompt higher fares from the loss of seat inventory.
Some airlines are even more dependent on high volumes: the U.S. domestic market has an average 86% load factor while Ryanair reached a 97% load factor last summer.
For now, the measure helps airlines navigate expectations as recovering countries wean people off social distancing.
EasyJet expects to resume flying with empty middle seats. Likewise for another European budget carrier, Wizz Air.
“We would basically be blocking a third of the airplanes,” Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi told Reuters. “A 180-seater would become a 120-seater.” Outside of Europe, Air New Zealand and Delta Air Lines
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary scoffed the notion, calling it “mad” and “nonsense” in a separate interview with Reuters.
O’Leary pointed out the contradiction of regulators wanting to block middle seats yet not taking commensurate actions at airports. Unsaid was that even if there is a gap between passengers, that space is still well less than the six feet or so advised for social distancing.
For an industry that relies heavily on regulations and precedent, there is little guidance for how to portray air travel as safe and healthy in a post-COVID world.
Measures introduced after the September 11 terrorist attacks were practical and had the added benefit of visibility: extra security screening, reinforced cockpit doors.
Global airlines were already promoting cleanliness back in February when the pandemic was centered on mainland China. As other countries became affected, airlines increased their messaging to counter public perceptions air travel is inherently risky due to enclosed aircraft cabins.
Airlines from China were early to note how cabin air circulation is vertical from ceiling to floor, and not horizontal from one passenger to the next. HEPA air filters are almost always on planes.
Chinese aviation regulator CAAC advised at the height of the pandemic that airlines seat only one passenger per three seats.
As the virus has been brought under control domestically, the CAAC has focused on imported cases as nationals return home. The CAAC is capping international load factors at 75%. That allows for an empty middle seat in every three out of four rows.
Travellers should expect passengers to be back in middle seats soon.
