Trump's coronavirus pronouncements have had little impact on Canadian response as few have been realized, say analysts, 'most of what he threatens goes away, it doesn't happen'

As U.S. President Donald Trump makes headline-grabbing suggestions that could have wide-reaching effects on Canada's response to curb COVID-19, analysts say the presidential pronouncements have little consequence to the Canadian federal government as few have come to pass. As the two countries try to deal with the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, there have been rumblings that Mr. Trump would be moving to quicken the reopening of the U.S. economy, restrict the flow of much-needed medical equipment to Canada, and deploy troops along the Canada-U.S. border. But so far, none of the suggestions have seen the light of day. “Most of what threatens goes away, it doesn't happen,” said Roy Norton, a former Canadian consul general in Detroit and Chicago, noting the renegotiation of NAFTA and tariffs on steel and aluminum exports being exceptions. “Generally, he makes pronouncements and they get quietly walked back because they ... make no sense for America, to say nothing for Canada.” “A lot of these pronouncements, frankly, are less meaningful than initially assumed,” said Mr. Norton, diplomat-in-residence at the Balsillie School of International Affairs and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. “We probably vest each of them with more consequence than we should.” Former diplomat Roy Norton says that U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestions have been 'less meaningful than initially assumed.' The Hill Times file photograph Mr. Trump insisted last week that measures to restrict movement across the Canada-U.S. border, except for essential travel, could be loosened. He told reporters that the Canada-U.S. border would be “one of the early borders to be released” from the measure, noting Canada's success at curbing the virus, which led to some speculation that border restrictions could be lessened soon. But later in the week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) announced an agreement was reached to extend the border measures for another month. The restrictions were set to expire on April 21. Mr. Trudeau told reporters on April 16 that it would be “many weeks” before the measures are lifted. Dalhousie University political science professor Brian Bow, who specializes in Canada-U.S. relations, said there is a tendency for Canadians to feel that potential disagreement between Canada and the U.S. over impactful policies will lead to negative consequences for Canada. “I don't think that's the case in this situation. I think it's not so much we have to be worried about the Americans retaliating against us or punishing us in some way,” he said. “It's really much more about, 'How do we prevent the way the Trump administration is handling this from making our situation, which is already extremely difficult, much, much worse.' ” Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at Washington, D.C.’s Wilson Center, said the fast-approaching U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3 is influencing Mr. Trump's desire to see the U.S. economy reopen, noting that the success of the American economy prior to the pandemic is one of his stronger selling points for re-election. “It was not to me surprising that as soon as he thought he could, he would start banging the drum ... to get the economy going again,” Prof. Sands said. “Justin Trudeau is the opposite,” he added. “He's already had his election, first of all, and, second of all, the Canadian economy stinks.” Prof. Sands noted that while Mr. Trump needs a strong economy for his re-election campaign, Mr. Trudeau can deflect blame for the performance of Canada's economy on to the coronavirus pandemic. He added that the U.S. government's push to restart its economy won't have a large impact on Canada's economic approach, despite the integrated nature of the two countries. If Canada does face pressure to reopen its economy from the U.S., it is “much more likely” to come from the private sector to ensure supply chains, Prof. Sands said. Prof. Bow said the pressure that Canada will face to reopen the economy will come through its social links and not economic integration with the United States. “There will be a ton of extra pressure on the Canadian government because of what's happening in the States,” he said, adding that given the interconnectivity of American and Canadian media and social media, “the direction of the debate there, will have an impact on the debates here.” Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland has been stickhandling Canada's relationship at the same time as leading Canada's coronavirus cabinet committee. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade “The public messaging challenge for managing the pandemic is just going to be that much more difficult for the Canadian health authorities because of the way the Trump administration has approached it,” said Prof. Bow. Mr. Norton said that Mr. Trump's suggestion that the Canada-U.S. border would be one of the first to resume normalcy is “encouraging” due to the importance of cross-border movement to Canada, however he added, the U.S. cannot unilaterally decide what will happen with the border. “I don't invest a lot of consequence in what the president said, but, on balance, it's better that he said that than signalling the extreme opposite, which is, 'We're not going to contemplate opening the border with Canada forever as long ... as there's a single soul on Earth with COVID-19, we're not going to let any Canadians into the United States,' that would be worse,” he said. Less strain on bilateral relationship as Canada and U.S. look domestically While in the midst of the NAFTA renegotiations now-Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale, Ont.) highlighted the need to deal with contentious disagreements behind close doors, high-level Canadian politics, including Ms. Freeland, have publicly rebuked some American proposals, such as militarizing the Canada-U.S. border. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, pictured in this file photograph, said last week that the restrictions on cross-border travel won't be lifted for 'many weeks.' The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Mr. Norton said Canadians expect their political leaders to react when Canada is targeted. “Canadians, for domestic consumption, insist on what seem to us to be outrageous initiatives by the U.S. contested, combated, taken issue with,” Mr. Norton said. “We don't allow our politicians to just ignore outrageous things that on their face seem targeted in some cases at Canada.” “They have to walk a fine line to not be too provocative with the people that we need help from in the White House and elsewhere in the administration and sometimes in Congress, who have helped to successfully walk back these things,” he said. Prof. Sands said, as opposed to during the NAFTA renegotiations, now with the Canadian and U.S. federal governments managing the effects of the coronavirus pandemic domestically, there is less worry about bilateral tension. “The bite politically or bilaterally is much, much smaller,” he said. “I don't see Trump necessarily having to respond to every Canadian disagreement.” After Mr. Trump announced that the U.S. was cutting funding for the World Health Organization, International Development Minister Karina Gould (Burlington, Ont.) told The Globe and Mail last week that the Canadian government was "disappointed" in the decision. While Mr. Trump's pronouncements have led to Canadian reaction and outreach to U.S. counterparts, experts on the Canada-U.S. relationship told The Hill Times that it hasn't had a substantial impact on the federal government's effort to curb COVID-19. “ has become pretty practised at dealing with the Trump administration and its volatility,” Mr. Norton said. Mr. Norton added that while Ms. Freeland or PMO chief of staff Katie Telford may have to pick up the phone to stickhandle through an issue with the White House, Canada is always in a reactive mode with the U.S., to a certain extent. Prof. Bow said while the pronouncements do take up some government resources, it is a manageable difficulty. “It has used up resources that they would have rather used for other things, but I don't think it has severely compromised the Canadian response,” he said. nmoss@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

Trump’s coronavirus pronouncements have had little impact on Canadian response as few have been realized, say analysts, ‘most of what he threatens goes away, it doesn’t happen’

'Generally, [Donald Trump] makes pronouncements and they get quietly walked back because they ... make no sense for America, to say nothing for Canada,' says former diplomat Roy Norton.

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