Wall Street Bets on a Trump Dollar Rally Ignore 40 Years of Data
- Academic research shows greenback weakens under Republicans
- Findings challenge banks’ view that tariffs will boost dollar
Wall Street bets that a second Donald Trump presidency will set off a rally in the dollar run in the face of history, according to a working paper that analyzed almost 40 years of data.
Pasquale Della Corte of London’s Imperial College Business School and Hsuan Fu at Quebec’s Universite Laval found there is a statistically significant relationship between exchange-rate returns and US presidential cycles.