A post pandemic world, some thoughts looking ahead #covid19

I have so many hopes and dreams forming already from this experience that I think would be a massive lost opportunity if we went back to the world as it was just a few weeks ago. It's probably too early to even start thinking of these, but I'm already wondering about life when we all start to emerge from lockdown. Here's a few initial thoughts:

• The High Street: From our new found love of Postmen/Postwomen, delivery drivers, Grocery Delivery, Fast Food and of course Amazon and everyone else now dropping straight to our door steps in our newly found 'contact free delivery'. Not just the drivers, but, all the folks in the entire logistics and supply chain! Will this further end the High Street as we know it? How do we recover from the already tough times. In the USA, have seen Macy's furlough almost all of their staff, that's 125,000 people. In the UK for example, approximately only 7% of weekly groceries were delivered pre Covid19. Some may never go back again given the convenience of it all (we have weekly shopping delivered for over 10 years now), however I think in many cases, folks will flock to local stores to support them and allow them thrive once again. The sense of community in local restaurants and service businesses has been astonishing.
• Cinemas: With studios now releasing movies straight to pay-at-home on the same day of release, what does this mean for Cinemas in a post pandemic world, already in a tough space. What does Hollywood or Bollywood look like in a post pandemic world? An update, thanks to Herb Chain, here from AMC with their recent down rating to CCC, which means - "Default imminent, with little prospect for recovery." While I think the movie experience will change for ever, I agree with many of the comments, that you cant beat this unique experience and night out! Update (29/04) - a really interesting perspective here from AMC now banning all Universal pictures worldwide given the comments on the success of direct to home streaming. See here. I worked out a broad cost of this for a family day out or even date night with Emma. Tickets, 2 x £15, Babysitter £30-£40, Food £?, Parking etc.. so £60-£100 vs the comfort of your own home. It's a really interesting one and you can see why streaming is winning or may have won! Now that said, many movies need the Big Screen. (Bond, Star Wars, Avengers!), but all of them?
• Business Travel: With the massive success of video over the last few weeks, will business travel ever recover to the levels we saw over the last decade. To me, there is never a better way than doing things in person, but perhaps this will reduce both from a) we know now it can be done, and b) it's better for the planet given carbon emissions and much more.
• Hospitals: Like everyone else in the UK, I'm in absolute awe of the NHS and all they have done, from front line staff to back office and everyone in between. How do we maintain this focus and energy post Covid19. Can we reduce waiting times or attract more talent, pay staff more. The speed at which NHS Nightingale has been converted from Conference centre to functioning hospital. I remember we all looked on in awe at the speed in which China created temporary hospitals. I will never celebrate closing a hospital facility, but I'm sure I will when they close these temporary hospitals across the UK, it will be a signal to many that we are through the worst and returning to normal. What lessons can we learn from this for funding the NHS going forward?
• Contact Centres. Seeing companies disband these all so rapidly all to remote working with laptop supplies almost as hot property as toilet toll, Citrix, VDI access, soft phones and much more. But in almost all cases, they have moved and moved quickly. It's generally very impressive and for many service organisation with no retail presence, this will have been one of the biggest logistical challenges. To put it into context, there are approx 6,000 contact centres in the UK and they represent 4% of the UK's working population. The operating model for all of these people in one place may now change forever. To be fair, virtual contact centres have been around for years with folks like Jet Blue having these in place since 1999, no physical buildings, all at home staff, leveraging gig workers in a unique way. How many of these could or will become Hospitals or distribution centres of the future.
• Lloyds of London. Beyond contact centres, and very Insurance specific, does Lloyds of London exist in its current form. A recent article from Reuters, from Quills to querty - talks about how this may just be the change we needed to drive electronic placement and much more. 'A true stress test for Electronic Placement'. If it works as planned, do we ever go back to the underwriting floor as we knew it in the most iconic Lloyds building?
• Regulation. As we have adapted to new ways of working, I've seen some regulation relaxed to allow for this new normal and others being questioned or considered. Will this make us rethink what and how we regulate going forward? Everything from call recording, PCI compliance and much more, how do we ultimately protect customers whilst balancing flexibility and agility here.
• Kindness. One thing I notice all the time in the USA, when an active or prior serving military personnel post in a group, others usually follow up with 'Thank you for your service'. I used to find this odd, in that I'm not used to seeing it. I'm now seeing the same for our our front line staff focussed primarily on Drs, Nurses and other health professionals. This is truly humbling and I hope continues for ever more. Our acknowledgement of those that serve, be it Dr's, Nurses, Police, Fire and the rest of our front line. That added with an increased sense of community and random acts of kindness. What a wonderful world we do live in when you see the communities pull together. I talked about it yesterday here.
• Cash. It was really interesting to see that cash usage has dropped by 50% almost immediately. From fears of the virus being present on coins and notes, coupled with guidance from WHO, Retailers and more to use Contactless where possible to avoid the spread. I saw requests for help from window cleaners that had no bank accounts to get set up with a free basic account, as well as a contactless device to take payment. Will the use of cash ever be the same? I've personally not used it for quite a while, inspired by Mike Chambers - cashlessuk.org
• The Charity Sector. Seeing how so many volunteers have run forward during this crisis is brilliant from St Johns Ambulance, AgeUK, Marie Curie and and so many more, but listening to and reading stories about how the inflow of cash to charities has pretty much dried up from events is kind of scary. How many of us have undertaken a walk, run tough mudder, abseil or other crazy thing to help raise money or even donated to a someone else's cause. Coming into Spring, now is a key time for this. The London Marathon (now postponed) raised £66.4m for charity alone. It will still take place later in the year, but create cash flow challenges for many that need this to survive now. How do we help here? With the shortage of staff in supermarkets, its good to see how Morrisons are taking on staff here too as a great example of collaboration and support.
• Consensus: Across all industries we have talked about the 'future of work' or 'digital insurance', 'digital banks' and much more. We have spent years building business cases, consensus amongst (lots) of stakeholders and so much more. Covid19 turns up and we no longer needed permission. We just got on with it and adapted overnight in almost all cases. Like many, some of the work I was doing a few weeks back has been put on pause while energy and effort moved to their respective front lines, dealing with moving location and a reduction in workforce, and others given a good firm kick in the backside, the kick we have been seeking to get consensus over for while. We would have have been worried about the people impact and spent months and months preparing and piloting. I read about one investment bank that said the outbreak had accelerated their digital plans by 2-3 years!. Without choice, we just got on with it and have adapted. We need to restart the conversation about challenging what we always used to do. Skip the red tape today, or as my friend Kenny Leitch has said for ages, to get anything done, you need to be prepared to Run the Red Lights!

The future of work turned up overnight, and we just got on with it and adapted.

• Work Life Balance: I wrote about how work has become more human, more personal over the last few weeks while we are all on lockdown. Does this kickstart a much needed Reset on the work life balance as we know it (for the better)?
• We can do absolutely anything!: Build New Hospitals, Open Source Ventilators and build them in rapid time, from Dyson to Universities to F1 teams and larger consortiums, and all at an amazing pace. What used to take years, is now being done in days. This brings whole new challenges of course. We have some of the smartest people on the planet, and when they all focus on one thing, it's amazing to see the results. Theres a lesson here for sure!.

I've struggled to source who actually said it (Alinsky, Emmanuel, Churchill, etc), but the intent is crystal clear.

'Never let a good crisis go to waste'

There are many things I miss, there are even more that I look forward to getting back to especially seeing family, friends and colleagues, but if we simply return to the way things were only a few weeks ago, we will have missed a massive opportunity amongst all this tragedy and chaos. How do you view the post pandemic world? Imagine if we can keep up this pace of innovation and change?

Nigel Walsh | @nigelwalsh

Updated: 16th April with link to Cinema article in North America.