Welcome to Week 13 of the 2021 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid and oddball panel of fantasy pundits discusses roster management for the fantasy playoffs, potential December Darlings, the state of the Browns, and staff nominations for this week's Replacements feature.
Postseason Roster Management
Matt Waldman: With the fantasy playoffs on the horizon, share a piece of advice to our readers about managing a playoff team.
For instance, Do you add specific types of players that you didn't carry on your roster during the season? Do you try out outbid playoff teams for waiver pickups you won't use but you can prevent them from using? Do you dump players that may have helped you earn your win-loss record but keeping them is little more than wishful thinking or fear of looking foolish if they rebound?
Give us one piece of advice that has resonated with you as a fantasy GM.
Troy King: For the playoffs, I usually fill my bench with backup running backs and multiple defenses. In season usually, I have a balance of running backs and receivers, but the receivers are easier to replace off waivers. I don’t think much about depth pieces for the playoffs and more so focus on which players are going to help me win.
Ryan Weisse: Pay attention to the schedule! There is no more critical time of year to be playing the matchups. It might be time to start rostering multiple quarterbacks, tight ends, or team defenses, something you should never do in the regular season. If you've been riding Carson Wentz as your streamer QB, after his juicy matchup with Houston in Week 13, he has a bye week and then New England and Arizona. Both of those teams give up bottom-5 points to fantasy quarterbacks and that makes three consecutive weeks you can't trust Wentz. If you have a fringe wide receiver that will never crack your flex spot, drop them and grab a backup quarterback.
Andy Hicks: Never tire of improving your roster. If players got you to the playoffs, that’s great. Can they help you win during the playoffs? If the answer is no, find players who will. Look at key matchups in all weeks of the playoffs, both yours and your competitors. This is the time of year where unexpected running backs can be productive. While they may lack talent, with the right opportunity and the right opponent you could have an unexpected fantasy star.
Jason Wood: Answering this question requires an understanding of the league parameters and roster size. But in a general sense, as you approach the playoffs the goal is to bolster what got you there.
Injuries, short-term IR, bye weeks combine to make it difficult to hold onto handcuffs for starting running backs, but as the bye weeks expire, it's paramount you acquire backups to your top ball-carriers, if possible. As to worrying about looking foolish, that kind of mindset doesn't compute.
Fantasy football is a game played with friends or friendly acquaintances, with a goal to win. That requires bold, confident decisions that very well could backfire. There's only one champion in each league, does it really matter if you finish 3rd or 12th?
Dave Kluge: This time of year, so much of the strategy is contingent on your team’s record. If you’re losing and desperate, now is the time to take those big swings before the trade deadline in hopes of turning your season around. But since you’re a Footballguys subscriber, we’ll assume that you’re doing well.
Once a playoff spot is locked up, there are two essential moves to make: Hoard as many handcuffs running backs as your league will allow and plan for your D/ST matchups. Most people are privy to the first piece of advice by now, so let’s focus on setting defenses.
Rather than getting into a weekly bidding war for the best possible defense, go ahead roster two this time of year with symbiotic schedules. Luckily for you, we have a tool for that! Our Strength of Schedule tool will show you when your defense has a tough matchup so you can preemptively plan for it.
Let’s say you have the Cardinals, who have been great so far this year. In Week 16 and 17, they have tough matchups (Colts and Cowboys). The Chiefs happen to have great matchups in those weeks against the Steelers and Bengals, so stash them now. Getting ahead of difficult matchups saves you the stress of worrying about allocating your FAAB as the season comes to an end.
Adam Harstad: From a dynasty standpoint: Congratulations on making the playoffs! You're probably going to lose.
Are you a fringe playoff team? You're probably going to lose. Are you the hands-down best team in the league with a 1st-round bye already locked in? You're also probably going to lose. Even if you only need two games to take home the title, you'd need a 71% chance to win each of them before it became more likely than not you'd win the championship.
Some league management platforms will track something called your "All-Play Win%", which is what your record would be if you played every team every week. If you can, go ahead and check that for your playoff team. Is it above 70%? If so, congratulations! But would it still be above 70% once you removed all of the non-playoff teams from the field? Probably not. Probably not even close.
If your all-play win% against playoff teams is closer to 60%, there's about a 2 out of 3 chance that someone other than you is going to be hoisting that trophy. And that's if you're a top seed; without a first-round bye, the chances are more like 4 out of 5 that you end the year on a loss.
This realization might be a bummer, but it's important to know when making moves. Do you cut or trade future assets to acquire short-term help? Buying Cordarrelle Patterson from an eliminated team might boost your championship odds from 32% to 35%. Three percent is a credible, significant boost, but how much of your team's future are you willing to sell for it. A late 2nd? A late 1st?
The Chargers' defense has a juicy matchup against the Texans in Week 16. The 49ers draw them in Week 17. If you have the depth, adding those defenses with an eye toward the future can increase your chances of winning it all. But is it worth it to cut an intriguing prospect to make room?
At this time of the year, it's so easy to get so hyperfocused on the next five weeks that you lose sight of the next five years. If you're in the playoffs then by all means make whatever low-cost moves you can to push your title odds as high as they'll go. Just be aware that you're probably throwing resources at a losing cause and make sure you'll be able to live with the cost if you come up short. (Which you probably will.)
Waldman: Thanks for a different but important angle on this question, Adam.
Chris Allen: I try to think of the playoffs as a new season. The mindset allows me to view players from a "what can they do" view versus a "what have they done" view. Bench spots come at a premium during the playoffs, as we can use them for multiple reasons to help us win. I’ll use them to hold handcuffs/streaming options or block opponents depending on the makeup of my starting roster.
Regardless, your roster should reflect a plan. And not just a plan for the first week but the entire stretch run. Review the matchups for your primary starters, determine if you can adjust to any last-minute injuries, and identify viable options on the waiver wire should an emergency happen. We can’t control how the players perform on the field, but we can put our rosters in the best situation with some forethought.
December Darlings
Waldman: Pick three players from the list that you believe has the best chance of performing in the second or third spot in a typical starting lineup in PPR fantasy leagues (1-2 QBs, 2-3 RBs, 3-4 WRs, 1-2 TEs) for the month of December.
- Odell Beckham, Jr.
- DeSean Jackson
- Dontrell Hilliard
- Rob Gronkowski
- Antonio Brown
- Matt Breida
- Trevor Siemian
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Devonta Freeman
- D'Onta Foreman
- Kendrick Bourne
- Elijah Moore
- Darnell Mooney
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- Jack Doyle
- Gerald Everett
Tell us about the merits of your chosen trio.
Wood: Gronkowski is the easiest choice among the player pool. He was the No. 2 ranked tight end -- behind Travis Kelce -- in Weeks 1 through 3, before getting hurt. And in the two weeks since his return, he's been the top-ranked tight end. Said another way, he's the No. 1 fantasy tight end in the five weeks he's been healthy. As long as he stays off the injury report, he's a mortal lock to be a difference-maker at a position with few reliable plays this year.
It's important to remember how thin the line is between success and failure in most careers, but particularly as a professional athlete. Had Drew Bledsoe not gotten hurt in New England, we may have only known Tom Brady as a forgettable backup who lasted a few seasons before moving into pushing nutritional supplements.
Tagovailoa was likely a draft pick or two of compensation away from being relegated to backup duties behind Deshaun Watson, according to many reports. But we now know that trade never happened and Tagovailoa has played with immense confidence in recent weeks.
He faces the Giants, Jets, and Saints in Weeks 13-16 (there's also a bye week), who are all favorable fantasy matchups. You probably aren't relying on Tagovailoa if you're a playoff contender, but having him on your roster as an emergency QB2 would be worthwhile, and in QB2 leagues, he could end up being a league winner.
Moore has at six or more targets in eight games so far and has become a playmaker after some growing pains in the first month and a half. His biggest issue is the uneven -- to put it mildly -- quarterbacking of Zach Wilson, but Moore should be able to circumvent that risk because he's so dangerous after the catch. Although Moore faces a difficult matchup in Week 13 against the Eagles, he gets plus matchups in Weeks 14-16 (Saints, Dolphins, and Jaguars).
Allen: Assuming health, Gronkowski’s the best of the group to be a fantasy star. Brady’s thrown an interception in four straight games and has been in the Top 12 once in the last month. After their bye, Gronkowski only played 59% of the snaps but was second in targets. He just led the team in targets and air yards last week. With Brady’s efficiency on the upswing, Gronkowski is a top option for the playoffs.
Mooney may be quarterback-proof like his teammate Allen Robinson once was. He leads the team in target (27.6%) and air yard (37.0%) share. Plus, he’s just two behind the lead in red-zone targets. Mooney’s targets have gone up with his production in two games with Andy Dalton, but he’s also been without Robinson. Mooney has two favorable matchups against Minnesota and Seattle, which should put him firmly in the WR3 conversation with WR2 upside.
It’s hard to source what’s wrong with Seattle’s offense, but Everett has been the biggest beneficiary of the chaos. Since Russell Wilson’s return, Everett has led the team in targets (20) and is tied for second in red-zone targets (2). No other tight-end has even come close to Everett’s on-field utilization, and the team faces the Rams, Bears, and Lions during the playoffs. Los Angeles and Detroit are in the league's bottom half in adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight-ends, and Chicago has given up 16.4 PPR points per game to tight ends over their last three games. The concerns about Wilson are valid, but Everett’s opportunity has been stable through the storm.
King: When Gronkowski is on the field, Brady throws him the ball. Since coming back from injury in Week 11 he has averaged 9 targets. Also, in the six games played this season he has seen seven red-zone targets. He is one of the very few consistent players on the tight-end landscape.
I think most people have forgotten how great Brown was prior to getting injured. When ranking by points-per-game average, Brown is fifth among all fantasy receivers. Brown has a 20% target share in one of the leagues’ best offenses. He should be returning from injury in Week 14 and will be a key part of the team's playoff run.
Sorry Allen Robinson, but Mooney has clearly stolen the WR1 job. Mooney has been a target hog, seeing a solid 28% target share. Since Week 8, Mooney has been the WR10 in points per game. Regardless of whether it’s Dalton or Fields starting, Mooney is going to see the ball early and often.
Kluge: I’ll echo Troy's sentiments here in regards to Brown. He was operating as Tom Brady’s preferred target early in the season. He picked up right where he left off last year as a touchdown machine. He can easily step in as a fantasy WR1 down the stretch as Brady eyeballs his sixth career MVP award.
Beckham had a tough go in his first week with the Rams as he was getting acclimated to a new offense and struggled to get on the same page with Matthew Stafford. However, he seemed to find some comfort over the bye week and looked like his old self against the Packers. He was able to blow the top off the defense for a big score, something we haven’t seen from Beckham in quite some time. Robert Woods was putting up solid numbers prior to an ACL tear, and Beckham can step right into that role and pay off dividends for those that held him all season.
Mooney was expected to have a big Year 2 breakout, but he’s exceeding everyone’s expectations. He has firmly supplanted himself as the Bears’ WR1. Through just 11 weeks, he has already passed his rookie season yardage total. He’s hit the 120-yard mark three times already this season, including the last two weeks. This offense is throwing more with Andy Dalton under center, which bodes well for Mooney’s continued emergence.
Weisse: It's taken some time, but Bourne is emerging as the true Alpha-WR for the Patriots. Jakobi Meyers will forever lead this team in targets, but Bourne has the best chance to score. Going all the way back to Week 3, Bourne has scored 10-plus fantasy points in six games. In that same 10-game span, he has also scored five touchdowns. The Patriots have a Week 14 bye, but Bourne is still worth a roster spot with a nice schedule for the fantasy playoffs.
I totally get wanting to avoid every New York Jet with their turmoil at quarterback, but Moore should be just fine. Even in the Jets' Week 12 win, where none of their pass-catchers did anything, Moore still led the team in targets after scoring four touchdowns in the last three games. The schedule opens up pretty nicely in Weeks 15-17 if Zach Wilson can pull himself together.
As Troy stated, it does not matter who the starting quarterback for Chicago is; Mooney is the WR1. Mooney has back-to-back 100-yard games heading into December, and the Bears have a nice schedule for wide receivers. Plus, Chicago is awful and playing much better teams, so they should have to throw plenty.
Hicks: Gronkowski is the most obvious player on this list. Despite missing six games, he still ranks as the 13the best tight end this season. He averages eight targets a game and is a popular red zone target for Tom Brady. His body may not be what it was, but he will be a star in December, health willing.
Mooney is pretty much the last man standing in Chicago. Allen Robinson appears to be taking the Kenny Golladay approach to injury management heading into free agency and the other players are career journeymen such as Marquise Goodwin, Damiere Byrd, and Jakeem Grant. Mooney has back-to-back 120-yard receiving games and is poised to exceed 1000 receiving yards in a season for the first time.
Beckham rounds out the list. Finally, he will have a quarterback that wants to throw him the ball. As was demonstrated against the Packers he is a big-play threat at any stage with a defensive mistake and as he gets more familiar with the playbook the options increase for his usage. Matthew Stafford would have to be silly not to look for him at all times, something that was inexcusable in Cleveland
Waldman: Love all the calls here, including Everett, Tua, and Brown as dissenting opinions from the consensus of Gronkowski, Mooney, and Beckham.
State of the Browns-Fantasy IMpact
Waldman: Baker Mayfield is walking wounded and after Odell Beckham's father created a hit-clip of videos showing Mayfield's flaws with decision-making and accuracy Kareem Hunt's dad noted that Mayfield is afraid to attempt certain throws to open receivers. I recommended this week that you should drop every Browns player by a fantasy tier based on whatever their current ranking is for the year. Should we be downgrading all Browns' fantasy options in non-IDP formats? Is there an exception?
Wood: You've laid out the key issue -- Baker Mayfield's health -- but Jack Conklin suffered a season-ending injury this week, too. Conklin was a top-10 run-blocking tackle this year and his absence poses a massive threat to the Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt engine, regardless of the quarterback situation.
The Browns need to be smart and move on from Mayfield in the offseason. NFL history is littered with franchises committing huge financial resources to quarterbacks who are good enough to worry about whiffing on their replacement but aren't good enough to ever win a title.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are too talented, and Kevin Stefanski is too disciplined as a play-caller to completely discount their values over the final six weeks of the season, but as Matt notes, we have to recalibrate their weekly baselines.
Weisse: As far as downgrading the Browns: did we have anyone highly rated outside of Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt? Mayfield has been unplayable all season long, and the only significant fantasy assets outside of running back are Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper. Hooper has been hit-or-miss at an already dismal fantasy position, and Landry should still be treated as a WR3.
It all comes down to Chubb and Hunt. Obviously, things did not go well in Week 12. The pair only combined for 15 carries and six targets in the passing game. Chubb had more volume than that by himself in Week 11. However, this was just one bad game and Mayfield has been bad pretty much all season. So, this shouldn't change much for the running backs, and I am not downgrading them.
Chubb is a week removed from 22 carries and a threat to score every time he touches the ball. He is still a back-end RB1. Hunt needs more passing game work, and if the Browns want to take pressure off their quarterback, maybe they can draw up some easier passes to one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league. Their bye week could not have fallen at a better time, and everyone should come out of this with the same fantasy value they've had all season.
Allen: We should downgrade all of Cleveland’s skill position players moving forward. Their pass-catchers are unreliable each week since Mayfield is injured, Cleveland is 24th in pass rate over expectation, and none of them have separated as a clear option. Landry’s 111-yard outburst last week was his first game over 100 yards all season, and he’s sandwiched between David Njoku and Austin Hooper in red-zone targets since Week 8.
As Jason mentioned, the loss of Jack Conklin for the season will likely limit the more effective part of their offense. They go up against the Ravens, Raiders, and Packers coming out of their bye, and all three have a potent pass rush. I’d try and find other options for every Browns’ player unless you’ve already dropped them.
King: Nick Chubb is an exception. Despite battling through injuries, he is currently the RB12 in points per game. He has the athleticism to take it to the house almost every time he touches the ball. Even though he had a down game last week, he should still be viewed as a low-end RB1 every week.
Kluge: Chubb is too good a player to bet against. He’s in a frustrating timeshare with Kareem Hunt, but Kevin Stefanski commits to the run like no other head coach in the league. Despite Cleveland’s offensive woes, Chubb should continue to produce low-end RB1/high-end RB2 numbers. If you drafted him in the first round, that production might be tough to stomach. But he’ll still be a reliable fantasy asset regardless of his team’s situation. As for the rest of the team, I agree that dropping everyone down a tier is the correct move.
Hicks: As others have mentioned, Chubb can carry this side on his back and all offensive success for the Browns flows through him. Get him going and the Browns offense looks good. It is clear that Baker Mayfield is not only walking wounded, his decision-making this season has been problematic leading to the departure of Beckham. Jarvis Landry and the tight ends still can have success, but it will be matchup dependent and the ability of Mayfield to utilize a matchup mismatch. Better options should be available.
Waldman: As great as Chubb is, the Ravens played nine in the box last week and stifled the ground game. Unless Mayfield is Popeye and Andrew Berry is growing cartoon spinach at his window next to the prospect tape (which will likely merit "random drug testing" from the league office), I find it hard to believe Cleveland will have a remedy to counteract Baltimore's approach after the bye.
If there is a back who can generate big plays in crowded boxes, Chubb is on the shortest list of NFL backs you'd want. Still, I see him as a low-end RB2 until we see how Cleveland can force opponents to respect an injured Mayfield.
The Replacements
Waldman: I write a piece called the Replacements that focuses on players who are usually well below the radar for most waiver wire formats but could provide you at least a modicum of production with a puncher's chance of starter output short-term if they make good on their opportunity. Recent alumni who've hit include the likes of Matt Breida, Dontrell Hilliard, Josh Reynolds, Russell Gage, Khalil Herbert, and DeSean Jackson.
Nominate 1-2 players you believe could emerge as a flex-play this weekend. Stipulations: the player must not have delivered fantasy value for more than 1-2 games this year and they should be players who've been considered backups until recent weeks (the past 2-3, at most).
Allen: Zay Jones is second in wide receiver targets since becoming a starter in Week 9, and Darren Waller is week to week with a knee injury. Fantasy managers will turn to Foster Moreau, who’s played well in Waller’s previous absences, but Jones should see more opportunity, too. Jones earned a season-high seven targets last week and got a carry out of the backfield. Washington is 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and Derek Carr has targeted Jones at all levels of the field. He doesn’t offer the most upside as a flex play, but he’s a viable option.
King: DeAndre Carter has quietly emerged as the WR2 on the Washington Football Teams. Carter has scored three times out of the last four weeks. He has also received a target share of 15% or above the last four weeks. He is a sneaky flex play in a league in deeper leagues or leagues with multiple flexes.
Weisse: The Replacements is one of my favorite things to read every week.
Waldman: Thanks, Ryan, appreciate that.
Weisse: Now that that flattery is out of the way, I have so many names I want to drop here, but you've covered most of them already. I was going to write about Josh Reynolds and Brevin Jordan, and you hit on both of them in the article, so people should go read that now!
Instead, I am going to give you two deep names at running back. Current Viking Kene Nwangwu and former-Viking Ameer Abdullah. It is widely known that Christian McCaffrey's season is over and that Dalvin Cook is likely to miss some time. Every waiver wire article you read for the next week will focus on Alexander Mattison and Chuba Hubbard, and they are not wrong. However, the guys backing them up might be worth a look too.
You're forgiven for not knowing who Nwangwu is. He is a rookie that ended up a team with an established starter and backup. The Vikings took him in the 4th Round of last year's draft with an eye on special teams, and he has delivered. After an early-season stint on the IR, Nwangwu has two return touchdowns in the last four games. He's only carried the ball twice, but each was for more than seven yards. With a 4.29 forty time, he is fast, and the Vikings now have reason to use him.
Abdullah was actually released from Minnesota to make room for Nwangwu. It's the circle of life. While everyone else chases the previous fantasy value of Chuba Hubbard when Christian McCaffrey missed time, I'll draw your attention to the last month of the season. With McCaffrey back in the lineup since Week 9, Hubbard has touched the ball 15 times. In that same span, Abdullah has 23 touches and scored more fantasy points. Of course, everyone assumes that Hubbard will fall right back into the previous role with McCaffrey back on IR, but I don't need to tell you what they say about assuming.
Hicks: I think Ryan hit the key players wonderfully. Kene Nwangwu and Ameer Abdullah. Chuba Hubbard may have hit a rookie wall and while Abdullah is limited, his experience will keep the offense moving. As a fantasy option he needs better production at quarterback, but with McCaffrey deservedly acquiring an injury-prone reputation they need production in all facets of the running game. Abdullah just offers a higher floor. If Mike Davis can be productive here, there is no reason Abdullah can’t. The fear is the two backs in Carolina cannibalize each other's value, but at this stage of the season, the upside is worth the investment.
Nwangwu was drafted in the same area as Chuba Hubbard and fourth-round running backs, including Michael Carter, just need an opportunity. Alexander Mattison is easily the number one option in Minnesota, but Nwangwu is explosive and capable of big plays. Whether he has enough work at running back will be the issue. If he is ready, load up if you need big-play potential.
Wood: Jauan Jennings should be a starter in San Francisco this week and perhaps a few weeks beyond, as Deebo Samuel is set to miss a chunk of time. Jennings has only made a blip on the fantasy radar thus far, but he's scored twice on 13 targets. The 49ers face Seattle, Cincinnati, and Atlanta over the next three weeks, and Jennings could be a shot of adrenaline for WR-needy squads.
Kluge: Matt has already done such a great job on the Replacement articles that he leaves little for us to talk about. I’ll simply add to what Ryan said about Abdullah. The gut reaction to McCaffrey’s injury was that Hubbard would step in as the lead back, similarly to what he did in Weeks 4-8 when McCaffrey missed some time.
However, Abdullah was incredibly efficient in his opportunity, scoring just two touchdowns on 107 touches. Abdullah’s first game with offensive snaps was in Week 8. Since then, Hubbard has not out-snapped Abdullah once. While I’m not extremely intrigued by either player, savvy fantasy managers should look to target Abdullah on the waiver wire. This Carolina backfield is a muddled mess. Abdullah will cost a fraction of what Hubbard will on the waiver market and has an equally high ceiling.
Waldman: Great calls! In this week's Gut Check, I recommended Nwangwu and Abdullah as players to monitor long-term. I also love the Jennings call, Wood. He's a physical player with questionable speed, but capable of productive play when he's focused. I added Carter a couple of weeks ago as a bye-week desperation play, Chris. I think he might be the best option from a nice range of selections.
