Column Del Mar might not be the track for Arrogate

Arrogate, the world’s top-rated thoroughbred, is safely entered in the crown jewel of the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club meet, the $1 million Pacific Classic on Saturday.

Now, whether he runs, I submit, is still to be determined.

I’ve had this feeling all along that Arrogate may not run in the 11/4-mile race.

Sure, trainer Bob Baffert is saying all the right things, but the fourth-place finish in last month’s San Diego Handicap would scare anyone with a $17 million horse and give him pause for thought.

No one, not even Baffert, can explain the defeat to Accelerate.

Was it the Dubai bounce? How about the Del Mar surface? Or maybe the 4-year-old is just plain tuckered out.

These are the facts: Arrogate got a late start on his 3-year-old campaign. He ran his eyeballs out in setting a track record to win the Travers Stakes at Saratoga Springs, N.Y. — his fourth race in 12 weeks. He then beat the 5-year-old California Chrome in one of the best stretch duels you’ll ever see to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita. Then it was on to an easy victory in the inaugural Pegasus Invitational at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. That was followed by his last-to-first dash in the $10 million Dubai World Cup. That’s a lot of traveling and some tough races.

He came to Del Mar as a 1-20 favorite in the San Diego Handicap and laid an egg. Was he tired, or was it the deeper track?

Baffert hasn’t started as many horses this meet as he has in the past. It could be that, as he gets older, he is cutting back on quantity for quality, but it might be the main track surface here this summer. A photo on Twitter last Wednesday showed Baffert checking out the main track in the stretch.

Some horses like it. Others hate it. Race times seem to be approaching those of the synthetic era, and everyone hated that.

As one owner told me last week, “This isn’t California racing.” He meant that California racing is all about speed. Speed has been muted in this meet because Del Mar suffered a rash of fatal injuries last year, and it was a public relations nightmare.

So far this meet, there has been one fatality on the dirt main track (and one on the grass). There also have been slower-than-slow times, but at least it has been consistently slow, morning and afternoon.

Some trainers like the track, and others hate it. There have been multiple soft-tissue injuries to horses who have been sent to the farm and whom you won’t see again at the meet. A few owners won’t let their horses run.

Which brings us back to Baffert and Arrogate. If the Breeders’ Cup were being run anywhere in the country other than Del Mar this year, there is no way Baffert would run his star Saturday. He admitted as much Tuesday to Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form.

“If the Breeders’ Cup wasn’t here, maybe I’d have been reluctant to run him back (in the Pacific Classic),” Baffert said. “But we’ve got to find out.”

Baffert has to find out if the 4-year-old is the Arrogate of old or just doesn’t like Del Mar.

I watched Arrogate’s workout Monday morning on TVG. I’ll be the first to admit I’m not a workout expert, but what I saw was a horse not entirely happy with his surroundings. He entered the stretch gawking into the stands. Twice, jockey Martin Garcia pulled at the reins to get him to look ahead. Arrogate finally did, but it just makes you wonder.

Does Arrogate need blinkers to keep his mind on business? Maybe.

Baffert was really pleased with his workout a week ago and again on Monday.

“He’s pretty happy,” the trainer told Privman. “He looks good. I’m all in with Arrogate.”

Del Mar is all in, too, not just Saturday but on the first Saturday in November.

I hope Arrogate returns to his old self. I hope he puts on a show Saturday and again in November. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t enter the starting gate.

Thumbs up, thumbs down

Thumbs up to owners Jon Lindo of Carlsbad and Oceanside’s Jeff Bloom for winning the Grade III Rancho Bernardo Handicap on Sunday with Skye Diamonds, who almost certainly earned her way into the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. I’m sure their purse winnings will go toward buying Breeders’ Cup tickets now.

Thumbs up to the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club for showing a video tribute to the late Leonard Lavin of Glen Hill Farm last Friday. It’s still a double thumbs down for not doing it a week earlier when the man died.

Thumbs up to apprentice jockey Evin Roman, who traveled to Seattle on Sunday and won the Grade III Longacres Mile. It was the first graded stakes win for Del Mar’s leading rider. Another thumbs up to Southern California-based trainer Vann Belvoir, who sent Roman up to ride Gold Rush Dancer. Belvoir becomes the first person to win the race as a jockey and a trainer.

Thumbs down to the recent tote delays at Del Mar. Last Wednesday, there were at least two races affected, including one in which betting was suspended for at least a minute as the horses were approaching the gate. Also, during the running of the eighth race, the odds on the winner showed 5-1 on the matrix board in front of the stands and 6-1 on the board at the left end of the stands. Let’s hope this isn’t a problem come Breeders’ Cup week.

jeff.nahill@sduniontribune.com