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Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

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Abstract

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951–2012 and the recent (1981–2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen’s slope estimator. December–February (DJF) season records high temperature while June–August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, through the second author. Special appreciation goes to Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) for the continuous support in training and research. The authors are indebted to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) for the provision of data used in the study.

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  1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/International Joint Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, 210044, China

    Victor Ongoma, Haishan Chen & Chujie Gao

  2. Department of Meteorology, South Eastern Kenya University, P.O. Box 170-90200, Kitui, Kenya

    Victor Ongoma

  3. Kenya Meteorological Department, P.O. Box 30259-00100, Nairobi, Kenya

    Phillip Obaigwa Sagero

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Ongoma, V., Chen, H., Gao, C. et al. Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets. Theor Appl Climatol 133, 1175–1190 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2246-y

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