Investor Education
Video: How the Economic Machine Works, According to Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio has reached the part of his life where he is giving back.
Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates out of his apartment in 1975, and now the long-running hedge fund is recognized as the world’s largest by assets under management (AUM) with $122.2 billion, and as the fifth most important private company in the United States by Fortune magazine.
However, since 2011, the billionaire has passed the baton for the role of CEO at Bridgewater – and he’s also been focused on passing on his knowledge as well.
The Knowledge Baton
Most recently, Ray Dalio has been praised for releasing his book entitled Principles: Life and Work, where he outlines the principles that have guided his impressive success with Bridgewater.
Just as timeless, however, is this 30 minute animated video that he and Bridgewater released a few years ago, which gives their unique template for how the global economy works. It’s possible that you may have seen this before – but if not, it can be a useful tool to understand how the pieces fit together.
Dalio starts at the micro level, showing how individual transactions are part of the overall economic machine.
Then, using human nature and history as a guide, Dalio reduces the complex global economy down to just three major forces that must be understood.
Three Major Forces
Dalio says this model has guided Bridgewater for over 30 years, and that there are three major forces that shape the economy:
1. Productivity Growth
Productivity growth, which is measured as a percentage of GDP, grows over time as knowledge, technology, and innovations help to raise our productivity and living standards.
2. Short-Term Debt Cycle
Usually lasting 5-8 years, the short-term debt cycle is a repeating pattern that occurs as credit expands and contracts.
3. Long-Term Debt Cycle
Usually lasting 75-100 years, the long-term debt cycle usually ends in a period of extreme deleveraging, where global debt is unsustainable and asset prices fall.
Based on Dalio’s model and his concerns about the abuse of money printing by central banks, it’s clear why he routinely holds gold for about 5-10% of his personal portfolio, as well.
Rules of Thumb
The video ends with Dalio giving three rules of thumb – takeaways that make sense for individuals, companies, and policymakers.
Rule #1. Don’t have debt rise faster than income
Your debt burdens will eventually crush you.
Rule #2. Don’t have income rise faster than productivity
You’ll eventually become uncompetitive.
Rule #3. Do all that you can to raise productivity
In the long run, that’s what matters the most.
With an estimated net worth of $17 billion, it seems Dalio’s rules could be worth keeping in mind.
Investor Education
Visualized: A Step-by-Step Guide to Tax-Loss Harvesting
In Canada, tax-loss harvesting allows investors to turn losses into tax savings. This graphic breaks down how it works in four simple steps.
A Step-by-Step Guide to Tax-Loss Harvesting
Market ups and downs can be unnerving, but the good news is that tax-loss harvesting allows investors in Canada to capture tax savings when their portfolio drops in value.
While it sounds complicated, a tax-loss harvesting strategy is actually fairly straightforward. An investor can use capital losses to offset capital gains found elsewhere in their portfolio, leading to a lower tax bill. While there are important conditions to keep in mind, investors can use this strategy to enhance portfolio returns over time by reinvesting these tax savings.
This graphic from Fidelity Investments shows how tax-loss harvesting works and why it may improve tax efficiency in an investor’s portfolio.
Breaking It Down
Consider a person who invested $50,000 in a mutual fund held in a non-registered account that has dropped by $10,000 in value. To help minimize losses, they took the following steps in a tax-loss harvesting strategy.
For the sake of this example, taxes are based on the maximum federal rate and the average maximum provincial tax rate.
- Sold investment with a $10,000 loss
- Invested $40,000 into a different mutual fund
- Used the $10,000 capital loss to offset capital gains realized elsewhere in the non-registered portfolio
- Achieved up to $2,550 in tax savings
The investor realized as much as $2,550 in tax savings by utilizing a $10,000 loss against a $10,000 capital gain. Without tax-loss harvesting, this $10,000 capital gain would be taxed at a 50% capital gains inclusion rate ($10,000 X 50% = $5,000). This $5,000 in applicable gains is then taxed at a 51% combined federal and provincial tax rate ($5,000 X 51% = $2,550 in taxes owed).
In contrast, by using tax-loss harvesting, the investor would have achieved up to $2,550 in tax savings.
What’s more, you can reinvest your tax savings over each year—which may help boost portfolio returns over time if the new investment increases in value.
Tax-Loss Harvesting Tips
With a tax-loss harvesting strategy, here are some key tips and considerations to keep in mind:
- Investment Timeline: A capital loss can be used to offset capital gains not only in the current year, but in the three years prior and/or any year indefinitely in the future.
- New Investment Type: After selling an investment that’s dropped in value, it’s important to buy a different investment to avoid triggering the ‘superficial loss rule’. Investors can aim to choose an investment with similar long-term returns.
- Plan for Year-End: In order to achieve a capital loss, plan to sell an investment at least two to three days before the year’s final trading day so the investment settles before year-end.
Together, these tips can help investors strategically execute a tax-loss harvesting strategy.
Tax Made Easier
During volatile markets, investors can seize the opportunity to turn losses into tax savings using tax-loss harvesting as a key tool to help generate higher after-tax returns.
Explore Fidelity’s tax calculator to discover tax-saving opportunities.
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