Idea in Brief

The Objective

A manager’s core function is to exercise judgment—to form views and interpret ambiguous evidence in a way that will lead to a good decision.

The Challenge

We have no clear framework for learning good judgment or recognizing it in others. To evaluate a leader’s judgment, we often rely on his or her track record, which can be misleading.

The Solution

This article identifies six components that contribute to good judgment: learning, trust, experience, detachment, options, and delivery. By working on each, leaders can improve their ability to make sense of an ambiguous situation.

A decision must be made. The facts have been assembled, and the arguments for and against the options spelled out, but no clear evidence supports any particular one. Now people around the table turn to the CEO. What they’re looking for is good judgment—an interpretation of the evidence that points to the right choice.

A version of this article appeared in the January–February 2020 issue of Harvard Business Review.