UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
The UFC will be live and free on ESPN this weekend for the first time, and that’s really exciting for those who follow the sport. It’s also a stacked card with many big names and a lot of fun fights, and plenty of money to be won on DraftKings.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Cynthia Calvillo, 9.2k
There are not many super safe options on this slate, but Cynthia Calvillo is a fighter I’m willing to target in cash games at 9.2k.
She’s the second heaviest favorite on the slate at -335 and has a relatively high floor given her potential to wrestle. Calvillo has landed 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes in her UFC career and her opponent Cortney Casey only defends takedowns at a rate of 24 percent.
I do think Calvillo will struggle to advance position against the brown belt Casey and may make for a decent tournament fade, but in cash games it’s hard to argue with her safety and I expect her to be one of the more popular targets on the slate.
2. Andre Fili, 7.4k
Another fighter I expect to be popular, Andre Fili is one of the better value plays on the slate at 7.4k, given his current betting line of +125.
Value is an important piece of the puzzle to winning cash games in the long term and dropping down to Fili saves plenty of money to allow you to spend up elsewhere. He too makes for a decent tournament fade given his popularity but it’s hard to argue against his floor in this spot.
Fili has landed 3.72 significant strikes per minute and should have an advantage if he can keep the fight standing against his opponent Myles Jury, who only lands 2.61 sig. strikes per minute.
Fili is also notoriously durable and the fight as a whole is -265 to go the distance. Even in a loss, that should give Fili enough time to score points and pay off the 7.4k price tag.
Tournament Plays
1. Cain Velasquez, 9k
The Main Event between Cain Velasquez and Francis Ngannou is -650 to end inside the distance, and regardless of which side you prefer, I think this is the best fight on the slate to target in tournaments and I will have exposure to both sides
But my preferred play is Velasquez at 9k, even though he’s overpriced compared to his betting line of -155, he’s a near-lock to hit the optimal lineup as long as he can get a win.
Velasquez has landed an insane rate of 6.38 sig. strikes per minute along with 5.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and his opponent Ngannou cannot keep up with that pace for more than a round.
If Velasquez loses, it’s likely via a first-round KO which is why Ngannou makes for a strong target as well. But as long as he can survive the first few minutes, I expect him to break Ngannou with pressure and wrestling and find a finish before the final bell.
2. Kron Gracie, 9.3k
I don’t have the utmost confidence in Kron Gracie making his UFC debut, he’s only 4-0 professionally and not the most polished professional fighter.
But he’s a world-class submission grappler and as long as he can land a takedown or even pull guard, he will have a chance to find a submission. He’ll be taking on Alex Caceres who has been submitted six times in his career and isn’t the most powerful striker.
Gracie also has the best ITD line on the slate at -188 and has real potential to earn advances if he can ever find top position. There’s certainly risk here, but I like targeting upside and there’s no doubting Gracie has DraftKings upside on this slate.
Fade of the Week
1. Jimmie Rivera, 8.3k
There’s a handful of different options I could have used for this category but I’ll choose a mid-range play in Jimmie Rivera at 8.3k.
I like Rivera, I think he has a very reasonable chance to win and he might put up 70-75 points, but that’s not enough at 8.3k and I worry about his upside in this matchup. Rivera does land 4.44 sig. strikes per minute, but his opponent Aljamain Sterling does a great job at limiting damage, only absorbing 1.43 sig. strikes per minute.
Rivera is also not likely to wrestle heavily in this matchup given Sterling’s ability on the mat, so we’re essentially relying on a finish.
It’s not the craziest outcome in the world, but Sterling has only been knocked out once in 19 pro fights, while Rivera only holds four TKOs in 24 fights. Rivera also has an ITD line of +444 which is not strong at all, and for 8.3k, I’d rather take a pass on him this weekend.