Pentagon risks getting 'fatter not stronger' with spending increases sought in new budget

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon budget request for 2019 puts the military on a course of spending unmatched since the Reagan-era buildup, boosting the number of troops, warplanes and bombs, according to documents and analysts.

But, defense analysts say, the $716 billion spending plan risks flooding too much money into a Defense Department that may not spend it wisely.

"The risk is that when the budget is flowing freely, policy makers are usually reluctant to make hard choices," said Todd Harrison, director of defense budget analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a non-partisan think tank.

"While this is not a record increase, it comes on top of a budget that was already higher than the peak of the Reagan buildup when adjusted for inflation," Harrison said.

The spending blueprint released Monday by the Pentagon emphasizes the new national defense strategy that accounts for the rising threat from China and Russia. Under the two-year spending deal reached Friday and signed by President Trump, the Pentagon would receive $716 billion in fiscal year 2019, an increase of 7%.

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Included in that $716 billion request is $597 billion for day-to-day military operations and weapons buying, $89 billion for the wars in Afghanistan and against the Islamic State and another $30 billion more to be spent by other government departments, such as the Energy Department, for the nuclear arsenal.

Trump said Monday that he wanted to reform the way the Pentagon buys weapons, joking that he wanted "twice as many planes for half the price."

He also said Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, a retired Marine general, was surprised by the size of the military budget.

'One of the other things I think so important to mention is that, in the budget, we took care of the military like it's never been taken care of before," Trump said, In fact, General Mattis called me; he goes, "Wow, I can't believe I got everything we wanted.' I said, "That's right, but we want no excuses.'" 

The priorities for new spending include adding 25,900 soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines to the force of 1.3 million, increasing production of F-35 and F-18 warplanes and buying more bombs and missiles.

"What we were able to do, our budgeteers, were getting constant guidance as the national security strategy and the national defense strategy were put together," Mattis told reporters traveling with him in Europe. "So we're already starting the longer term. In other words, this all feeds into the longer-term view.  It's already couched inside the defense strategy."

The budget request is generally sound in addressing the military's needs, said Michael O'Hanlon, a defense analyst at the Brookings Institution. But it has flaws, he said, including equating the threats posed by Russia and China. China has more resources than Russia, and has been better behaved as well.

It also spends more than the country can likely afford, he said.

"Overall, our country’s fiscal situation is a mess," O'Hanlon said. "Thus, the defense budget increase, while not the main culprit, is a bit more than I’d want.  It also reduces or removes much of the pressure for reform and for prioritization of key goals."

The Pentagon has nearly 20% more capacity in its bases than it needs, spends increasing amounts on pay and benefits for troops and has old, expensive weapons system that need to be retired.

"The Department of Defense is still in desperate need of reform in many areas," Harrison said. "If the Department of Defense does not continue to reform and make smart cuts even when the budget is growing, it will just get fatter not stronger."

The increase may be short lived because of the mounting national debt, said Loren Thompson, a defense industry consultant and an analyst at the Lexington Institute. 

"This budget gives the military pretty much everything it wanted — readiness for today, new weapons for tomorrow," Thompson said. "Even if it gets revised to match Congress' recent two-year budget deal, happy days are here again for America's military — at least for now."

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The price tag for new military hardware includes $10.7 billion for 77 new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter warplanes, an increase from the 70 fighters in 2018. The Pentagon also plans to spend $2 billion for 24 F-18 Super Hornet jets, up from 14 in 2018. 

The war against Islamic State militants in the Middle East and Africa, and insurgents in Afghanistan has mostly fought by U.S. forces from the air. Weapons stockpiles have been drawn down in recent years due in large part to the fight against ISIS, according to budget documents. The 2019 budget plugs part of that gap by spending $1.1 billion on 43,000 satellite-guided bombs, about 9,000 more than in 2018.

"The Department of Defense has expended more munitions than planned over the last few years, primarily to defeat Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), leading to higher demand to replenish munition inventories," according to budget documents.