IF THE 20th century belonged to the rich countries of North America and Europe, some economists argue, then the 21st will be the era of the emerging world. Economic growth across emerging markets has been scorching since 2000. Some of the largest countries, like India and China, managed growth rates above 10% per year. Continued growth at such rates would lead to “convergence” with the rich world. That would mean higher living standards in developing countries and a shift in the balance of economic and political power. Yet those prospects seem to be diminishing. Growth rates are dropping across emerging markets, from the largest—including countries like Brazil and Russia that are now in recession—to the smallest. As a result, the rate of convergence has dropped to almost zero. What was driving convergence, and why has it stopped?
