Elsevier

Atmospheric Environment

Volume 163, August 2017, Pages 9-21
Atmospheric Environment

Review article
Black carbon emissions in Russia: A critical review

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.05.026Get rights and content

Highlights

  • The paper reviews studies on Russia's black carbon emissions.

  • The study also adds organic carbon and uncertainty estimates.

  • Russia's black carbon emissions are estimated at 688 Gg.

  • Russian policies on flaring and on-road transport appear to have significantly reduced black carbon emissions recently.

  • Using the new inventory, the study estimates Arctic forcing.

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive review of estimated black carbon (BC) emissions in Russia from a range of studies. Russia has an important role regarding BC emissions given the extent of its territory above the Arctic Circle, where BC emissions have a particularly pronounced effect on the climate. We assess underlying methodologies and data sources for each major emissions source based on their level of detail, accuracy and extent to which they represent current conditions. We then present reference values for each major emissions source. In the case of flaring, the study presents new estimates drawing on data on Russia's associated petroleum gas and the most recent satellite data on flaring. We also present estimates of organic carbon (OC) for each source, either based on the reference studies or from our own calculations. In addition, the study provides uncertainty estimates for each source. Total BC emissions are estimated at 688 Gg in 2014, with an uncertainty range 401 Gg-1453 Gg, while OC emissions are 9224 Gg with uncertainty ranging between 5596 Gg and 14,736 Gg. Wildfires dominated and contributed about 83% of the total BC emissions: however, the effect on radiative forcing is mitigated in part by OC emissions. We also present an adjusted estimate of Arctic forcing from Russia's BC and OC emissions. In recent years, Russia has pursued policies to reduce flaring and limit particulate emissions from on-road transport, both of which appear to significantly contribute to the lower emissions and forcing values found in this study.

Introduction

Globally, BC is the second or third most important climate forcer (Bond et al., 2013, Collins et al., 2013, Stohl et al., 2015), though there remains significant uncertainty over BC emissions and their climate impact. Few countries have published national inventories of BC, and the scientific understanding of BC emission factors lags behind that of other major climate forcers, in part because the relative importance of BC as a climate forcer has only recently been understood.

BC has a net positive forcing effect on climate change through several mechanisms. These include directly absorbing solar radiation, reducing the albedo of snow and increasing snow melt (when BC deposits on snow), and changing the solar reflectance of clouds through a variety of interactions with atmospheric moisture and clouds (Bond et al., 2013, Collins et al., 2013, Stohl et al., 2015). Bond et al. (2013) estimate global emissions of BC to be 7500 Gg in 2000, with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29,000 Gg.

BC is an aerosol comprised of fine particulate matter that is produced from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels or organic matter. Different fuels and types of combustion can produce very different amounts of BC. For example, natural gas combustion produces very little BC, while diesel combustion can produce significant amounts. BC is co-emitted with organic carbon (OC), though the ratio changes depending on the type of fuel and efficiency of combustion. Unlike BC, OC has a net cooling effect as a climate forcer; thus, it is important where possible to consider both aerosols (Bond et al., 2013, Sand et al., 2016, Stohl et al., 2015).

Russia plays an important role regarding BC emissions and associated climate forcing, given its location and size. Russia covers the majority of the global land surface in the Arctic, and location of emissions is important because BC is very short-lived compared to CO2. This is because BC has a pronounced impact on climate change near the Arctic, linked to BC's role in reducing snow albedo and its cloud interactions (Quinn et al., 2011). The closer emission sources are to the Arctic, the more likely there are to have stronger climate forcing impacts than if emitted at lower latitudes. Russia covers the majority of the global land surface in the Arctic, and hence emissions in Russia are critical for our understanding of BC as a climate forcer.

In addition, studies also indicate that PM2.5 (of which BC is a major component) also causes significant health impacts (Fann et al., 2012, GBD, 2016, Janssen et al., 2012). It can enter the lungs and pass through human skin, causing respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular problems, and cancer. As a result, many countries have adopted policies to reduce the emissions of particulate matter, such as emission standards, and these policies typically also reduce BC emissions. The Russian Government has also adopted policies such as vehicle emission standards.

This study aims to present a comprehensive review of Russia's BC emissions, comparing methodologies and data behind existing estimates of these emissions. The studies to date have used methodologies with varying degrees of detail and accuracy, and the estimates that they produce vary significantly. For example, BC emissions in the transportation sector range from 7.7 Gg to 45.3 Gg (MNRE, 2015a) per year (Huang et al., 2015), while those on BC emissions from forest fires range from 81.9 Gg (Smirnov et al., 2015) to 519 Gg (Hao et al., 2016) per year. By directly comparing the existing studies referenced in this article and highlighting the estimates derived from the most detailed and/or current methodologies, this study aims to improve our understanding of Russia's BC emissions. In addition, this study adds an assessment of uncertainty to the existing literature, which is important given the wide range of estimates and the underlying uncertainty of emission factors and activity data. Uncertainty describes situations in which we have a limited understanding of emission factors or activity data; variability describes changes in activity or emission factor over time or based on different conditions. In the emissions inventory community, the term uncertainty is used to summarize both. We have attempted to reduce uncertainty by identifying the studies with the most detailed data and methodologies. For example, where some studies have assumed that Russian vehicles do not use control technologies, we relied on research that separated vehicles into emission classes, and hence showing this increased variability in activity data allowed for more precise application of emission factors, reducing uncertainty. This study also provides estimates of OC emissions from each source, which was not the case in all the studies reviewed. OC emissions are important for estimating net climate forcing.

Improved data on Russia's BC emissions are important for several reasons. Global climate models rely on such data, so data enhancements can provide a clearer picture of potential future climate change. Likewise, more accurate emissions data can help in developing priorities and plans to mitigate BC emissions.

Section snippets

Methodology

This review of BC emission estimates for Russia compares several estimates for emissions, emission factors, and underlying activity data for the major sources of BC emissions in Russia. We present a range of estimates published in peer-reviewed journals, reports, and presentations. Some emissions sources, such as transportation, have multiple estimates in the literature, each with a different level of detail, while others, such as flaring, have relatively few sources, reflecting limited

Emissions of black carbon and organic carbon in Russia

Below we present the comparative results for each sector along with a brief description of the emissions sources by sector. Thus, we cover flaring, transportation, wildfires and agricultural burning, the residential and domestic sectors, power generation and heating, and industry. Their order is based on the approximate net forcing from combined BC and OC emissions from each source. It is important to note that wildfires are by far the largest source of BC emissions, but they co-produce

Radiative forcing in the Arctic

BC is well known to have a strong radiative forcing effect. However, because the combustion processes that emit BC also emit OC (and sulfate aerosols), which has a radiative cooling effect, the full forcing effect of the combustion process is more difficult to determine. As the relative emission amounts determine the degree of radiative warming or cooling, it is important to consider the BC/OC emission ratio when looking at climate effects.

Sand et al. differentiate between the radiative forcing

Conclusions

This paper presents consolidated estimates of BC and OC emissions in Russia, using detailed analysis of the methodologies and data from multiple studies. We highlight the study or studies for each sector that appears to have the most detailed, robust methodologies and data, which we share as reference estimates. Many studies of Russia's emissions present only estimates of BC, not OC as well, and they also, in many cases, lack uncertainty estimates. We have added both OC estimates and

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful for research support provided by the US Department of State. The US Environmental Protection Agency provided support to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory under the inter-agency agreement DW-089924383. Battelle Memorial Institute operates the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-76RL01831. The US Forest Service project on forest fires was supported by the US Department of State, US Forest Service Research and

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