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Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985–2014

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Abstract

In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985–2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.

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Notes

  1. A tied group is a set of sample data having the same value.

  2. The likelihood test was used for testing the null-hypothesis H: ξ = 0 against the two-sided alternative (ξ ≠ 0). The estimated shape parameters were found to be very close to 0 for 10 stations as the null hypothesis was not rejected at the significance level of 0.05.

  3. The current maximum are given in Table 1.

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Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank Belgacem Raggad for the review of the English text.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management—Nabeul, University of Carthage, Carthage, Tunisia

    Bechir Raggad

  2. BESTMOD Laboratory, Higher Institute of Management—Tunis, University of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia

    Bechir Raggad

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Raggad, B. Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985–2014. Theor Appl Climatol 132, 1217–1235 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2155-0

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