BETA
This is a BETA experience. You may opt-out by clicking here

More From Forbes

Edit Story

How to Predict the Future Success of Possible Marketing Channels

This article is more than 7 years old.

p>We all wish we could see into the future – for our careers, our personal lives, and even our bank accounts. But if you could predict the future, how would it change your business’s marketing strategy?

The truth is, there really is no way to tell how successful our marketing efforts will be – no matter how many fortune cookies we open or Magic 8 Balls we shake. And because of this, so many of us play it safe with our strategies. We keep doing things the way we’ve always done them because that’s what we know.

When a new marketing channel pops up – which happens constantly these days – we’re hesitant to invest. We’re afraid of wasting our time, energy and money on a platform that we don’t know for sure will last. It’s understandable. Just look at what happened to MySpace or Friendster.

The marketing landscape is ever-changing, ever-evolving, and there are new channels, methods and tactics emerging all the time.

“What we think is the natural order of behavior today will be altered due to changes in technology, economics, social status, the environment and new products and services being created, combined and transformed on a weekly basis,” says Geoffrey Colon, senior product marketing manager for Microsoft for Bing Ads.

Some channels will fail, some will last; but you’ll never know what will work for your business if you don’t try. Of course, that doesn’t mean you need to try every channel you come across. What’s right for one business may not be right for yours. So how do you know which channels you should try out and which ones you should pass by?

To find out, it helps to take a look at the past, present, and future of marketing.

Looking Back at the Past

Remember the dawn of the internet? Digital was a term used by few, video was only on TV and the social revolution hadn’t even started yet. Now think back to the marketing channels you were using. How did they differ from what you’re doing today? Which of those channels are you still using?

“Even with so many new tools like Facebook, Twitter and beyond, few businesses are actually doing anything markedly different than they used to,” says Jay Baer of Convince and Convert. “Facebook is a fancy photo scrapbook and Twitter is often just a tiny press release machine. It’s the same shouting with a different megaphone.”

While it may be tempting to go out on a limb and try the shiny new marketing channel everyone is talking about, you may not need to. You may already be accomplishing everything you need to with the channels you’ve been using for years.

Take email, for instance. Email has been around almost as long as the internet itself. Unlike many other channels, it has stood the test of time and gained even more traction as a useful marketing tool. In fact, U.S. businesses send an average of 1.47 million emails each month.

Email probably isn’t the only blast from the past that’s still kicking. To find out what else has worked best for your business over the years, you must turn to data.

Perform an audit of the channels you’ve used over the years. Don’t just look at the channels that worked – look at your flops, too. How did people respond to these channels? Dig deep and find out why things worked or didn’t work.

Observing the Present

Just as past data will tell you a lot about the success of marketing channels, so too will current data. Look at the channels you are currently using. Which are performing the best, and which ones need improvement? Perhaps there are channels that you should consider dropping, or gaps that need to be filled.

The best way to know what’s currently working, and what will work, is to look to your audience. Understanding your audience’s needs is key to positioning your brand in the right way. Where is your audience spending their time? That is where your brand needs to be.

Practice social listening to gather data on your audience’s habits, preferences and desires. What types of people is your brand attracting? Look at demographic and socioeconomic information to create personas that you can market to.

Audience data will shape your entire marketing strategy, including deciding what channels to use. If your audience is using Facebook constantly but rarely uses Twitter, then there’s no reason for your business to be on Twitter.

Besides your audience, the other data you should be gathering is on trends. While some trends come and go, others have a strong influence on your audience. To find new trends, look at trend reports or consider doing your own original research. Look at what the big players like Facebook and Twitter are doing, too. If they’re implementing something new, you can bet others will follow.

Predicting the Future

Once you’ve gathered all the data you can on the past and the present, it’s time to look to the future. Nate Silver, statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, says, "We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information – and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise."

It’s not enough to gather the right data; you also need to know how to use it. Don’t make lots of changes to your marketing strategy right away. Too much at once will be a detriment, not a benefit.

Start by testing out one channel at a time. Work on making that one channel as effective as possible. One effective channel is worth way more than 10 ineffective ones. Once that one channel is working well, then you can try out another.

The key is to not take on more than you can handle and avoid overwhelming your audience. Also, be prepared to adapt. What’s working one day could change the next. A new marketing channel could arise that’s perfect for your business. Make sure you have room in your strategy for unexpected changes.

When in doubt, the best thing you can do for your business and for your audience is to stick to the basics. Focus on creating a clear, unique message that resonates with your target audience. As long as each of your marketing channels is focused on this goal, it won’t matter whether you can predict the future or not.

What marketing channels have you found the most success with? Let me know in the comments below:

Follow me on TwitterCheck out my website