Abstract
This study attempts to analyze the short- and long-run impacts of the probable change in rainfall and temperature simultaneously on food availability and access to food issues, as the two dimensions of food security, in Malaysia. It uses an integrated method comprising of a stochastic method and a computable general equilibrium model using the latest (2010) input–output table published in 2015. The stochastic method, which relates to the Monte Carlo simulation, provides the probable changes in rainfall and temperature patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data of rainfall and temperature and crop productivity. It was found that, simultaneous variation of rainfall and temperature, in both the short- and long-run, contracts the economic performance of Malaysia. Findings also show the negative impact of rainfall–temperature variability, in both time periods, on food availability and access to food due to a reduction in the supply of agricultural products, a commodity inflation pressure and a reduction in household income. Moreover, results suggest that the climate variability shocks lead to a reduction in the consumption and welfare of all household groups, particularly in rural areas.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (World Food Summit 1996). This definition encompasses four dimensions of food security namely, Food availability, Food access, Utilization of food and Stability of food supplies.
Choosing the parametric model was based on primary assessments of results, testing alternative samples (linear, log–log, and log-linear) and other functional forms.
The Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and other statistical tests (C-S, K-S and A-D) are criterions for model selection among a finite set of models, and the model with the lowest AIC, BIC and others is preferred. For each of these statistics, the smaller the value, the better the fit (Palisade Corporation 2010).
Which include rice, bread and other cereals, meat, fish and seafood, milk, cheese and eggs, oils and fats, fruits and vegetables.
References
Ahluwalia, M. S., & Lysy, F. J. (1979). Welfare effects of demand management policies: Impact multipliers under alternative model structures. Journal of Policy Modeling, 1(3), 317–342.
Alam, M. M., Mohd, E. T., Siwar, C., & Talib, B. (2011). Rainfall variation and changing pattern of agricultural cycle. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 7(1), 82–89.
Alam, M. M., Morshed, G., Siwar, C., & Murad, V. M. (2012). Initiatives and challenges of agricultural crop sector in east coast economic region (ECER) development projects in Malaysia. American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural & Environmental Science, 12(7), 922–931.
Alam, M. M., Siwar, C., Jaafar, A. H., Talib, B., & Osman Salleh, K. (2013). Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to climatic changes in Malaysia: Review on paddy sector. Current World Environment, 8(1), 01–12.
Alam, M. M., Siwar, C., Talib, B., & Ekhwan, M. T. (2014). Impacts of climatic changes on paddy production in Malaysia: Micro study on IADA at North West Selangor. Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 6(5), 251–258.
Arndt, C., Robinson, S., & Willenbockel, D. (2011). Ethiopia’s growth prospects in a changing climate: A stochastic general equilibrium approach. Global Environmental Change, 21(2), 701–710.
Branca, G., Lipper, L., McCarthy, N., & Christina Jolejole, M. (2013). Food security, climate change, and sustainable land management: A review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 33, 635–650.
Brown, M. E., & Funk, C. C. (2008). Food security under climate change. Science, 319, 580–581.
Cong, R. G., & Brady, M. (2012). The interdependence between rainfall and temperature: Copula analyses. The Scientific World Journal, 2012, 1–11.
Eboh, E., Oduh, M., & Ujah, O. (2012). Drivers and sustainability of agricultural growth in Nigeria. African Institute for Applied Economics (AIAE), Research Paper 8. https://www.africaportal.org/dspace/articles/drivers-and-sustainability-agricultural-growth-nigeria-0.
Economic Planning Unit, EPU. (2016). The Malaysian economy in figures 2016. Putrjaya, Malaysia. http://epu.gov.my/en/malaysian-economy-figures.
FAO. (1996). World food summit: Rome declaration on World Food Security. Rome: FAO. Available at http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/w3613e/w3613e00.HTM.
Felix, B., & Romuald, K.S. (2014). Climatic variability and food security in developing countries. Centre d ‘ Etudes Et de Recherches Sur Le Developpement International. Etudes et Documents n° 05.
Generoso, R. (2015). How do rainfall variability, food security and remittances interact? The case of rural Mali. Ecological Economics, 114, 188–198.
Gregory, P. J., Ingram, J. S. I., & Brklacich, M. (2005). Climate change and food security. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 360(1463), 2139–2148.
Harris, R. L., & Robinson, S. (2001). Economy-wide effects of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change. TDM Discussion Papers, 83. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC.
Hatfield, J. L., & Prueger, J. H. (2015). Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development. Weather and Climate Extremes, 10, 4–10.
Hayse, J. W. (2000). Using Monte Carlo analysis in ecological risk assessments. Lemont: Argonne National Laboratory.
http://dspace.africaportal.org/jspui/bitstream/123456789/33363/1/Researchpaper8.pdf?1.
Karaky, R. (2002). Climate variability and agricultural policy in Morocco. Ph.D. Thesis. Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette.
Milan, A., & Ruano, S. (2014). Rainfall variability, food insecurity and migration in Cabricán. Guatemala. Climate and Development, 6(1), 61–68.
Palisade Corporation. (2010). Guide to using @Risk. Ithaca: Palisade Corporation.
Rademacher-Schulz, C., Afifi, T., Warner, K., Rosenfeld, T., Milan, A., Etzold, B., & Sakdapolrak, P. (2012). Rainfall variability, food security and human mobility. In An approach for generating empirical evidence. Intersections, 10. United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn.
Rahim, S. A. (2014). VIA of climate change on malaysian agriculture systems: Current understanding and plans. Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. http://www.ukm.my/seaclidcordex/presentation_rice_project.html.
Sassi, M., & Cardaci, A. (2012). Impact of climate change on wheat market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model and CGE Model. Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics, First Congress, June 4–5, 2012, Trento, Italy.
Sassi, M., & Cardaci, A. (2013). Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model. Food Policy, 43, 321–331.
Schlenkera, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2009). Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. PNAS, 106(37), 15594–15598.
Schmidhuber, J., & Tubiello, F. N. (2007). Global food security under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(50), 19703–19708.
Seung, C., & Ianelli, J. (2016). Regional economic impacts of climate change: A computable general equilibrium analysis for an Alaska fishery. Natural Resource Modelling, 29(2), 289–333.
Smit, B., & Skinner, M. W. (2002). Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: A typology. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 7, 85–114.
Solaymani, S. (2015). Impacts of energy subsidy reform on poverty and income inequality in Malaysia. Quality & Quantity. doi:10.1007/s11135-015-0284-z.
Solaymani, S. (2017a). Agriculture and poverty responses to high agricultural commodity prices. Agricultural Research. doi:10.1007/s40003-017-0253-y.
Solaymani, S. (2017b). Carbon and energy taxes in a small and open country. Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 3(1), 51–62. doi:10.22034/gjesm.2017.03.01.006.
Solaymani, S., Kardooni, R., Kari, F., & Yusoff, S. B. (2015). Economic and environmental impacts of energy subsidy reform and oil price shock on the Malaysian transport sector. Travel Behaviour and Society, 2(2), 65–77.
Solaymani, S., & Kari, F. (2014). Impacts of energy subsidy reform on the Malaysian economy and transportation sector. Energy Policy, 70, 115–125.
Solaymani, S., Kari, F., & Zakaria, R. H. (2014). Evaluating the role of subsidy reform in addressing poverty levels in malaysia: A CGE poverty framework. Journal of Development Studies, 50(4), 556–569.
Solaymani, S., & Shokrinia, M. (2016). Economic and environmental effects of trade liberalization in Malaysia. Journal of Social and Economic Development. doi:10.1007/s40847-016-0023-x.
Stamoulis, K., & Zezza, A. (2003). A conceptual framework for national agricultural, rural development, and food security strategies and policies. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Working paper, Agricultural and Development Economics Division.
Teklu, T., von Braun, J., & Zaki, E. (1991). Drought and famine relationship in Sudan: Policy implications. Research Report, 88. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC.
Vaghefi, N., Mad Nasir, S., Makmom, A., & Bagheri, M. (2011). The economic impacts of climate change on the rice production in Malaysia. International Journal of Agricultural Research, 6(1), 67–74.
Wen, P. P., & Sidik, M. J. (2011). Impacts of rainfall, temperature and recent El Niños on Fisheries and agricultural products in the west Coast of Sabah (2000–2010) (p. 28). Borneo Science: Borneo Marine Research Institute.
Zainal, Z., Shamsudin, M. N., Abidin Mohamed, Z., & Adam, S. U. (2012). Economic impact of climate change on the Malaysian Palm Oil production. Trends in Applied Sciences Research, 7(10), 872–880.
Zainal, Z., Shamsudin, M. N., Abidin Mohamed, Z., Usman, Adam S., & Kaffashi, S. (2014). Assessing the impacts of climate change on paddy production in Malaysia. Research Journal of Environmental Sciences, 8(6), 331–341.
Zhai, F., & Zhuang, J. (2009). Agricultural impact of climate change: A general equilibrium analysis with special reference to Southeast Asia. Asian Development Bank Institute.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This paper investigates the impacts of rainfall and temperature variation on food security and agriculture sector in Malaysia. The novelty of this paper is simultaneous analysis of both rainfall and temperature on the agriculture sector and food security in Malaysia. Another is that it can show the readers the short- and the long-run impacts of this shock on food security in Malaysian community which did not attention in the previous literature.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Solaymani, S. Impacts of climate change on food security and agriculture sector in Malaysia. Environ Dev Sustain 20, 1575–1596 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-017-9954-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-017-9954-4