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Impacts of climate change on food security and agriculture sector in Malaysia

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Abstract

This study attempts to analyze the short- and long-run impacts of the probable change in rainfall and temperature simultaneously on food availability and access to food issues, as the two dimensions of food security, in Malaysia. It uses an integrated method comprising of a stochastic method and a computable general equilibrium model using the latest (2010) input–output table published in 2015. The stochastic method, which relates to the Monte Carlo simulation, provides the probable changes in rainfall and temperature patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data of rainfall and temperature and crop productivity. It was found that, simultaneous variation of rainfall and temperature, in both the short- and long-run, contracts the economic performance of Malaysia. Findings also show the negative impact of rainfall–temperature variability, in both time periods, on food availability and access to food due to a reduction in the supply of agricultural products, a commodity inflation pressure and a reduction in household income. Moreover, results suggest that the climate variability shocks lead to a reduction in the consumption and welfare of all household groups, particularly in rural areas.

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Fig. 1

Source: Author’s calculation based on Department of Statistics databases

Fig. 2
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Fig. 4

Source: Author’s calculation based on Department of Statistics databases

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Notes

  1. “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (World Food Summit 1996). This definition encompasses four dimensions of food security namely, Food availability, Food access, Utilization of food and Stability of food supplies.

  2. Choosing the parametric model was based on primary assessments of results, testing alternative samples (linear, log–log, and log-linear) and other functional forms.

  3. The Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and other statistical tests (C-S, K-S and A-D) are criterions for model selection among a finite set of models, and the model with the lowest AIC, BIC and others is preferred. For each of these statistics, the smaller the value, the better the fit (Palisade Corporation 2010).

  4. Which include rice, bread and other cereals, meat, fish and seafood, milk, cheese and eggs, oils and fats, fruits and vegetables.

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Correspondence to Saeed Solaymani.

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This paper investigates the impacts of rainfall and temperature variation on food security and agriculture sector in Malaysia. The novelty of this paper is simultaneous analysis of both rainfall and temperature on the agriculture sector and food security in Malaysia. Another is that it can show the readers the short- and the long-run impacts of this shock on food security in Malaysian community which did not attention in the previous literature.

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Solaymani, S. Impacts of climate change on food security and agriculture sector in Malaysia. Environ Dev Sustain 20, 1575–1596 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-017-9954-4

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