MLB teams
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer 7y

Players with something to prove

MLB

The offseason is over as players report to camp. Position battles, players on new teams and those returning from injuries, and prospects fighting for a spot create endless storylines before the regular season starts. Here is one player for each team to pay close attention to in the coming weeks.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Shelby Miller

It was a lost season for Miller, who, at only 26, has already been traded for Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden, Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson. It's the last of those names that figures to dog Miller this year if he doesn't have a bounce-back, as Swanson is a preseason front-runner for National League Rookie of the Year. Miller struggled so badly in his first season in Arizona that he wound up making eight starts for Triple-A Reno. Before the demotion, he had a 7.14 ERA over 69⅓ innings. After his return to the Diamondbacks, it was 3.98 over 31⅔ frames. Arizona badly needs the post-demotion version of Miller to show up from the outset in 2017.

Atlanta Braves: Dansby Swanson

Last season, Swanson jumped from Double-A to the majors and hit .302/.361/.442 in 38 games with the Braves. He retains his rookie status entering 2017 and faces lofty expectations in his first full season. Swanson has shown an occasional propensity for strikeouts, so as the scouting on him becomes more attuned and pitchers start to adjust, it will be interesting to see whether Swanson can stay perched on that rocket ship to stardom. As good as his partial-season numbers were for Atlanta, he did struggle against soft stuff, posting a .478 OPS, per Inside Edge tracking.

Baltimore Orioles: Dylan Bundy

After years of injury woes, Bundy finally resurfaced in Baltimore for the first time since making two appearances back in 2012. Bundy made the big league roster largely because he was out of options. If the Orioles didn't keep him on the big league club, they might have lost him on waivers. But Bundy earned his keep, putting up a 3.08 ERA in 38 relief innings before entering the Baltimore rotation after the All-Star break. As a starter, Bundy was up and down, going 8-5 with a 4.52 ERA and striking out more than a batter per nine innings. Orioles skipper Buck Showalter was careful with Bundy, never letting him hit triple digits in pitch count. Still, Bundy seemed to tire down the stretch. Now that he has made it through a season healthy, the Orioles are hoping he can progress in a larger role going forward.

Boston Red Sox: Pablo Sandoval

Sure, the Red Sox have Keith Law's top overall prospect, Andrew Benintendi, but the Panda is in the best shape of his life. The Red Sox need the slimmed-down Sandoval to pick up some of the considerable offensive slack created by the retirement of David Ortiz. No, Sandoval isn't about to replicate Papi's league-leading 1.021 OPS. But after playing in just three games in 2016, if Sandoval can put up something close to his career .790 OPS, it would be an upgrade from Boston's American League-worst .686 OPS from the third-base position. Every marginal upgrade helps.

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber

For all the well-earned attention Schwarber received after returning to the Cubs for the World Series, we still haven't seen him play the field. That will be an area of interest early in the spring, as Chicago figures out a new outfield mix that no longer includes Dexter Fowler or Jorge Soler. On top of that, as much as Schwarber looks like a hitting savant, his career average against lefties is .143. The Cubs are deep enough to platoon, but Schwarber is such a good hitter that it seems like he should be able to figure out the southpaws. Chicago manager Joe Maddon thinks so, too. After all, he allowed Schwarber to face Andrew Miller four times during the World Series. Finally, during the spring we're likely to get our first extended look at Schwarber as a leadoff hitter, one who is unorthodox in appearance but ideal in on-base percentage.

Chicago White Sox: Tim Anderson

There is aggression, then there is flailing. Through his professional career, Anderson has managed to strike a precarious balance between the two. His .375 BABIP as a rookie would seem absurdly high if not for the fact that he has put up results like that all through his rise in the White Sox's system. His .999 OPS on balls in play was Chicago's best among players with at least 100 plate appearances. However, he struck out 117 times against just 13 walks. This, too, was a continuation of his minor league days. Anderson is never going to be Ben Zobrist at the dish, but you have to worry if -- or when -- a lack of refinement in his approach will undermine his budding power and exciting potential on the basepaths.

Cincinnati Reds: Robert Stephenson

Stephenson inherits this spot from Homer Bailey, who had some bone spurs removed from his long-suffering elbow and will miss most, if not all, of spring training. A longtime prospect, Stephenson finally made his big league debut last season. It did not go well, as Stephenson put up a 6.08 ERA and allowed nine homers in 37 innings. The stuff is there, but Stephenson will face a tough spring battle for a rotation spot that will include fellow prospects Cody Reed, Amir Garrett, Luis Castillo and possibly even veteran Bronson Arroyo, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2014 but recently signed a minor league deal for a spring look-see.

Cleveland Indians: Michael Brantley

After going down with a sore forearm, Danny Salazar made the Indians' World Series roster. Carlos Carrasco didn't make it back for the playoffs, but his injury (fractured bone in his right hand) isn't the sort that you worry about lingering. That leaves Brantley as the remaining question mark among the returnees from Cleveland's crowded 2016 disabled list. Brantley was limited to just 11 games after having surgery on his right shoulder. Entering the 2016 season, Brantley was coming off a stretch in which his two-year OPS of .876 ranked ninth in the AL -- one spot ahead of Josh Donaldson. There has been a lot of buzz about Cleveland's addition of Edwin Encarnacion, but if Brantley is healthy and in pre-injury form, look out. However, it's not a slam dunk that Brantley will be ready to start the season.

Colorado Rockies: Ian Desmond

The Rockies' acquisition of Desmond was a much-discussed move over the offseason. He's a proven commodity in most respects, except one: his ability to play first base. Colorado's recent signing of its incumbent first baseman, Mark Reynolds, could free Desmond up to move around the diamond, especially against lefties. However, all signs are that Desmond is still going to open the season at first. Desmond has logged 7,938 defensive innings during his seven-year career, and not one of them has come at first base. You figure a guy who has played 913 games at shortstop and another 130 in center field could make the transition with ease. We'll find out this spring.

Detroit Tigers: Jordan Zimmermann

For two months last season, it appeared Zimmermann was on his way to a banner season. Through his first 10 starts, Zimmermann was 8-2 with a 2.58 ERA. Yet, not all was well. Zimmermann's strikeout rate was just 5.8 per nine innings, well off his career total of 7.4. He tried to work through a groin injury, then strained his neck and battled a sore right lat. He was in and out of the rotation and went 1-5 with an 8.77 ERA over his final nine outings. There are 92 million reasons why the Tigers really need to see a healthy, more productive Zimmermann going forward.

Houston Astros: Yulieski Gurriel

After a long, decorated career in Cuba, Gurriel was a buzzy in-season signing by the Astros. He signed a five-year, $47.5 million deal on July 15. Five weeks later, he was in the big leagues, making his debut at age 32. The scouting report on Gurriel was that of a power-hitting corner infielder. During the season before he signed with Houston, Gurriel put up a slash line of .500/.589/.874 over 49 games in Cuba. However, the Astros didn't see much of that late in the season. Gurriel hit .262 but had just three homers in 36 games with an isolated power of .123. (the big league average was .162.) The Astros are hopeful that a fresh start and a full spring will restore life to Gurriel's power bat.

Kansas City Royals: Kyle Zimmer

Repeated injuries have limited Zimmer to 232 innings over five pro seasons, and he has yet to make his big league debut. His latest malady was thoracic outlet syndrome, the same condition that felled the Mets' Matt Harvey last season. Zimmer was back throwing over the winter and is expected to be ready for spring training. For all his inability to stay on the mound, when he has been on it, the results have been worthy of his former status as one of the game's better pitching prospects. His composite minor league ERA is 3.22 and he has struck out 11.1 batters per nine innings. Zimmer turns 26 in September, so if he looks good in Arizona, how long can the Royals afford to play it safe before trying to find out what they have? And if he makes the big league club, what is his role? How long does he have to remain healthy before we stop holding our breaths?

Los Angeles Angels: Garrett Richards

Richards' 2016 season ended on May 1 because of a torn elbow ligament. The obligatory ending to that story -- Tommy John surgery -- never happened, which makes Richards one of the more intriguing players to monitor this spring. Rather than going under the knife, Richards opted for a stem-cell injection. The gamble appears to have paid off. Richards was throwing in an instructional league by fall and is slated for the Angels' 2017 rotation. L.A. manager Mike Scioscia told reporters that he plans to be careful with Richards this season, which seems like a prudent call. If he holds up and pitches well, Richards' story would be another data point in favor of this kind of treatment.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Scott Kazmir

The Dodgers have so much rotation depth that they aren't likely going to get too far into the season with a struggling starter, even one such as Kazmir, who is slated to earn more than $35 million the next two seasons. Kazmir struggled with back and neck injuries for most of the second half of the 2016 season, which cost him a shot at the Dodgers' postseason roster. Kazmir wasn't that great even before that, though, as he struggled with location on too many days. His rate of 3.4 walks per nine innings was his highest in a full season since 2010. However, Kazmir's strikeout rate (8.8) was strong and his velocity was as good as ever. We've seen Kazmir bounce back before. But given the Dodgers' options, he needs to come out sharp -- and healthy -- this spring.

Milwaukee Brewers: Keon Broxton

On the spreadsheets, the Brewers don't look good, at least for this season. It's players like Broxton who explain those dire forecasts but also offer hope for why they may be wrong. In what was otherwise a breakout season, Broxton's 36 percent K-rate would have led the majors had he qualified. But he got on base at a nice clip, hit nine homers in less than half a season, stole bases at will and played good defense in center until mashing his wrist on the brick wall at Wrigley Field. Is the wrist healed? Will all that flailing sink him? We'll begin to find out those answers in February as Broxton heads to spring training as the favorite to be Milwaukee's everyday center fielder in 2017.

Miami Marlins: Justin Bour

The Marlins have a lack of depth in their system, making it imperative that they get good health and production from their big league roster. It's not really a group that can withstand any glaring holes in its everyday lineup. The Marlins had two such holes last season: first base and shortstop. At short, Adeiny Hechavarria had a down year at the plate, but he's a defensive anchor. The culprits at first were primarily Bour and Chris Johnson. Johnson is gone and the Marlins look like they're scrambling to find a right-handed complement to pair with Bour, who owns a career .564 OPS against lefties. In fact, Bour has never hit a big league homer off a southpaw. Still ... Miami reportedly is willing to let Bour have a shot at a bigger role. We'll begin to find out soon if that's a wise idea. If Bour puts up a career season, it would lengthen a Marlins lineup that has a potentially dynamic heart of the order.

Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton

Just a couple of years ago, Buxton was the consensus top prospect in baseball, rated ahead of rising superstars such as Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Noah Syndergaard and Corey Seager. If you're ready to sell on the 23-year-old, you might want to wait a few months. When Buxton was optioned to Triple-A on Aug. 7, 2016, his career slash line was .199/.248/.319. He'd struck out 124 times in 356 plate appearances and walked 19 times. His speed in the outfield, his electricity on the basepaths, the pop in his bat were all exciting. Yet those percentages had a lot of Twins fans worried. Luckily, once Buxton was recalled for September, he went on a tear, hitting .287/.357/.653. While mashing nine homers during that span, he touched up such luminaries as Jose Quintana, Kelvin Herrera, Danny Salazar, Justin Verlander and Chris Sale. Still, he struck out in over a third of his September plate appearances and, let's face it, September numbers can be a mirage.

New York Mets: Whoever is in the trainer's room

Who is to blame for the Mets' injury epidemic? Who knows? Maybe it's an over-reliance on veterans, or certain physical types. Maybe it's a tendency to rush young players. Maybe the training procedures do in fact need to be reviewed, though there's no common theme to all the injuries that I can eyeball. Reading through the list of the Mets' disabled-list transactions is like reading a directory of what can go wrong with the human anatomy. Most likely, it's just simply bad luck. What is undeniable according to multiyear analysis: The Mets have lost more players to injury than most other teams.

Entering spring, the Mets face a simple reality: Their ceiling this season depends entirely on keeping guys on the field. That's quite obvious and quite true for every team, but no one more so than the Mets, who with good health are a title contender. New York has injury questions all over the place -- including four-fifths of the rotation -- as spring dawns, and to identify one player to watch seems impossible. Better to keep an eye on the training room -- and hope that it's empty.

New York Yankees: Greg Bird

Bird will take over at first base for the retired Mark Teixeira. After emerging as a late-season sensation in 2015 by hitting 11 homers in 46 games, Bird missed the entire 2016 season because of shoulder surgery. Bird was back playing by the time the last edition of the Arizona Fall League rolled around and will compete for playing time with Tyler Austin and recently signed veteran slugger Chris Carter. Like Gary Sanchez, Bird set a high bar for himself with his out-of-the-gate performance in the majors, and the Yankees will be anxious to see whether he continues the same course after a year-long detour. They could use the 2015 version of Bird after ranking 28th in first base WAR last season, per baseball-reference.com.

Oakland Athletics: Andrew Triggs

If the Athletics are going to surprise this season, it'll be on the strength of a young rotation full of promise -- but also uncertainty. The first four appear set: ace Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Kendall Graveman and hot prospect Jharel Cotton. The fifth spot now appears to be Triggs' to lose after Daniel Mengden went down with a broken foot. The side-arming Triggs is coming off an injury as well after a sore back that truncated his 2016 season. But just as interesting is that Triggs' minor league dossier contains just one start. However, he started six times for Oakland last season, going 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 23 strikeouts and just one walk over 26⅔ innings. Can he continue that kind of mastery in a larger role, and on a bigger stage, than he has ever encountered before?

Philadelphia Phillies: J.P. Crawford

Crawford is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and, after playing Triple-A ball last season, he's on the cusp of his big league debut. However, he didn't hit well after his promotion from Double-A and will need to show this spring that he has everything ironed out. His 2017 projections already outstrip those for incumbent shortstop Freddy Galvis, both with the glove and the bat. It seems only a matter of time before Crawford pushes Galvis into a utility role, and his spring performance might suggest whether that happens sooner rather than later.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Kevin Newman

Over the past four seasons, which encompasses the span of Jordy Mercer's reign at shortstop in Pittsburgh, the Pirates have finished 19th in wOBA at the position, eight points below the major league average. They ranked eighth with 12 runs saved by shortstops, per Inside Edge, and added 3.1 runs to the mix with Mercer's baserunning, according to fangraphs.com. It's a portrait of average. Average, of course, has value, and Mercer's competence has been far from a glaring weakness in Pittsburgh. In Newman, the Pirates have a shot at something better, especially at the plate. The focus will be on Newman's defense in the spring, because chances are if it doesn't impress Pirates manager Clint Hurdle, Mercer's reign of competence will continue for at least a few more months.

San Diego Padres: Hunter Renfroe

The toolsy Renfroe had established a pattern of putting up numbers that fell short of his apparent gifts. That changed in 2016, when he hit 30 homers with an .893 OPS for Triple-A El Paso. Then he went up to the majors and hit four homers with a .371 average in a late September call-up. Now the Padres' likely starter in right field, Renfroe must prove his aggressive approach can hold up over the long haul at the big league level.

San Francisco Giants: Jae-gyun Hwang

The Giants have a stable, veteran-laden roster and some big names coming to camp to compete as well in Jimmy Rollins and Michael Morse. The wild card in all of this is Hwang, who signed a minor league deal with the Giants just a couple of weeks ago. Hwang is a 29-year-old South Korean who hit .330 with 26 homers and 104 RBIs in the KBO last season. What does that mean? Well, it's a hitting league -- that average ranked just 15th in the KBO, and as far as I'm concerned, our ability to accurately translate stats from Korea is in its nascent stage. The entirety of what I know about Hwang stylistically comes from Jeff Sullivan's amazingly detailed scouting report at fangraphs.com. On a team as boringly competent as the Giants, the fact that Hwang is pretty much an unknown is as good a reason as any to watch.

Seattle Mariners: Dan Vogelbach

After years of climbing up the Cubs' first-base ladder, all while knowing that waiting on the top step was Anthony Rizzo, Vogelbach was freed last season when Theo Epstein shipped him to the Mariners in the deal that sent Mike Montgomery to Chicago. A few weeks later, Vogelbach made his big league debut with a fielder's choice grounder against the Angels. He played sporadically over the past couple of weeks of the season as the Mariners chased a wild-card slot, going 1-for-12 with six strikeouts. He heads to camp with a prime chance to win the heavier part of a first-base platoon with veteran Danny Valencia. Given a new outfield setup more for defense than offense, the M's need some plus production from first base. If Vogelbach doesn't look up to the task, the win-now Mariners could turn his at-bats over to Valencia, whose results against righties have been up and down, but better the past couple of years.

St. Louis Cardinals: Lance Lynn

Lynn won 60 games with 726 strikeouts for the Cardinals from 2012 to 2015 before missing the entire 2016 season because of Tommy John surgery. Now he's back in the Cardinals' rotation in hopes of being a key reason why St. Louis can close the gap on the Cubs, who won the NL Central by 17½ games last year. It's a contract season to boot for Lynn, who had three sharp, short rehab outings in the minors in August. If the Cardinals do make a run at the Cubs or, more likely, a return to the postseason, it will likely be on the strength of a deep, effective rotation. For the group to ascend from a team strength into a reason for contention, however, it'll need a couple of breakout performances. A healthy Lynn would be a potential source of that.

Tampa Bay Rays: Brad Miller

Second base was a position of strength for the Rays a season ago despite their disappointing 68-94 finish. Now, after trading Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers, it'll be up to Miller to make sure Tampa Bay doesn't lose wins at the keystone. For a team with enough pitching to make a run at a wild card, it's an important consideration. The offensive projection between Miller and Forsythe is basically a wash. A more patient hitter, Forsythe is a better bet in terms of on-base percentage. Miller, on the other hand, has a marked edge in slugging percentage. His career isolated power mark is .177; Forsythe is at .140. On a team built around defense, that will be the true proving ground, and Miller has started just 18 games at second base during his career.

Texas Rangers: Jurickson Profar

Once rated as Baseball America's No. 1 overall prospect, Profar has yet to make an impact at the big league level. In fact, his professional record as a whole remains a story of potential over production. Of course, injuries have had a lot to do with that. On many teams, Profar would be looked at as a "next-step" guy who, if he reaches his potential, could put a contending club over the top. The simple truth is that the Rangers have enough good players that they don't necessarily have to wish-cast on a player with a .235/.311/.341 career slash line. That's not to say the arrival of Profar as a breakout star would be unwelcome. No team has turned away a star yet. As it stands, Profar's biggest short-term value for Texas might be as trade bait. The long-term value ... that's what a lot of Rangers fans hope begins to take shape this spring, making the trade option moot.

Toronto Blue Jays: Dalton Pompey

It wasn't supposed to happen that Pompey's spot in Toronto's outfield would be usurped by Kevin Pillar, but that's what happened. Pillar has turned into one of the most dynamic defenders in the game. After getting over 100 plate appearances in 2015, Pompey got into just eight big league games last year, seven as a pinch runner and one as a defensive replacement. He had as many steals (two) as plate appearances. Pompey can run and can defend, but he does not appear to have the power bat to carry a corner outfield spot. So trade bait, right? Not so fast. If teams are valuing outfield defense more, then perhaps the answer is not Pillar or Pompey but ... both. With aging Jose Bautista back to man right field, having two guys who blanket most of the outfield might be a good idea. And it's not like the scheduled left-field platoon of Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr. is inspiring any epic poems.

Washington Nationals: Shawn Kelley

The Nationals sniffed around the big-ticket closer market for most of the winter but came away empty-handed. Was this outcome a harbinger of doom or manna from baseball heaven? The payroll certainly is a lot more pliable without paying a reliever $16 million to throw 60 innings. Whether that really works out, though, will be completely dependent on Dusty Baker's ability to craft a workable bullpen out of the pieces on hand. Kelley, in terms of strikeout and walk rates, looks like the top candidate. Through his age-32 season, Kelley has 11 career saves. However, last season, his 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings ranked eighth among relievers. So we have to remember: All dominant closers weren't dominant closers, until they were.

^ Back to Top ^