UK Edition
Tomorrow, at 12pm Washington D.C. time (5pm GMT), Donald Trump will take the presidential oath of office. He will then deliver his inaugural address. Here are five things Britons should watch for as they consider the impact of his presidency on the UK:
1) Does Trump mention a US-UK trade deal?
Because UK-US bilateral trade is defined by higher-value goods and services which don’t undercut low-paid US workers, Trump puts the UK in the ‘good trade’ category. Mexico and China are in Trump’s ‘bad trade’ category. Still, Trump has three specific reasons for a trade deal with the UK. First, he wants an early diplomatic agreement to sell to the American people under his campaign narrative: ''See, I told you, I’m a great dealmaker'' etc. Second, Trump wants to present a pragmatic counterpoint to his anti-globalisation agenda. Third, Trump wants something with which to draw contrast with President Obama. And with Obama famously promising that Brexit would send Britain to the ''back of the queue'' on trade, Trump has an opportunity here. If Trump mentions a UK trade deal – or new ‘good’ trade deals in general – expect an early administration push for such a deal.
2) Does Trump mention Russia? If so, what does he say?
Donald Trump’s affinity for Vladimir Putin is hugely unpopular in the US Government. Moreover, Republicans and Democrats in Congress believe that Trump is grossly naïve on Russia. The Senate has already announced an investigation into Russian intelligence operations against the US election. But if Trump does mention Russia in a positive way, it will indicate he is serious about buddying-up with Putin. Trump may hedge such a statement with a commitment to NATO, but the risks are clear. As I’ve explained before, Putin will attempt to manipulate Trump. And it’s feasible to imagine a situation in which, for example, Trump reduces America's military footprint in Europe (including, perhaps, in the UK) in return for a Putin pledge of support against Isil. Such action would immediately degrade NATO's effectiveness as a deterrent.
3) Does Trump make aggressive pledges on illegal immigration?
Trump’s campaign narrative was fixed on two central planks. First, that the U.S. economy is losing too many jobs to foreign nations. Second, that the U.S. immigration system is broken. But if Trump makes an aggressive short-term commitment in his speech – such as pledging to remove millions of illegal immigrants from the US – it will have major repercussions. Expect protests, legislative-shutdown challenges from Democrats in Congress and state legislatures, and a general collapse of bipartisanship. And if that happens, Trump will be distracted away from other issues relevant to the UK
4) Does Trump outline action to strengthen the US economy?
Trump has big ambitions to reduce regulation, simplify the monstrous US corporate tax code, and promote capital investment. These ideas have strong support from Republicans and some Democrats in Congress. And if Trump offers, for example, a commitment to get tax reform done by the end of 2017, then expect an immediate, sustainable positive reaction in U.S. financial markets. That matters for Britons because US economic confidence will flow into greater global economic confidence. We might assume it’s a given that Trump will try to boost confidence from the starting bloc, but with this president you’re never going to know. For one, the new President may suggest a looming trade war with China. If so, the markets will respond negatively.
5) Does Trump insult Obama or Clinton?
Aside from a few snippy remarks, President Barack Obama has reached out to Donald Trump since the election. And for a time, Trump reciprocated in kind. Since then, however, Trump has taken a harsher tone against Mr. Obama. If Trump continues that tone tomorrow, the impact will reverberate into Washington politics. Why? Because Democrats and their donors remain very angry over Trump’s victory. If pushed, they will move to obstruct Trump’s cabinet appointments and other priorities. Indeed, some Democrats are already boycotting Trump’s inauguration. Why does this matter for Britons? Put simply, because animosity will restrict Trump’s better potential in every other area.
The opening days of any American Presidency always bear relevance to the world. As America’s closest ally, the UK will have a special interest in what Trump says and does. Tomorrow is your first look at President Trump. Pay close attention.
Tom Rogan is a foreign policy columnist for National Review, a domestic policy columnist for Opportunity Lives. Follow him on Twitter @TomRtweets
Five things for Brits to listen for in the inauguration of President Donald Trump