From the colour of the year to consumer behaviour, predicting trends is big business. David Nicholls delves into the world of forecasting the tastes of tomorrow
Could Islamic State's use of the colour black on its flag have an impact on how we decide to decorate our homes? What about the media attention surrounding subjects such as genderless bathrooms? These are the kinds of questions that Lisa White, head of interiors and lifestyle at the trend forecasting agency WGSN, might discuss with her team of global editors when they meet twice a year. 'We talk about what's out there and what's interesting, and turn them into trends,' she says. WGSN's predictions can look up to 10 years into the future.
The professional trend forecaster is a far cry from the storybook old crone who makes crystal-ball predictions. In the same way that a meteorologist produces a weather forecast based on data from the atmosphere, a trend forecaster aims to extract tomorrow's tastes from the collected evidence of what is happening now. In both cases, it seems, it is a matter of something being in the air. Where the magic happens - perhaps the thing that most perplexes those who question the legitimacy of forecasting - is in the process of translating this information into specific trend predictions. 'I trust my instinct about where everyone will be in two years,' Lisa says. Many others trust her instincts, too: WGSN has 60,000 active users and clients in industries as broad as fashion and design to automobiles and telecoms.
'I look to these reports more for the macro trends and what's happening in terms of social behaviour,' explains Philippa Prinsloo, head of design for Home at John Lewis. 'You take some presentations more seriously than others - the ones that are backed up by economic facts and statistics.' She recalls hearing about 'Generation Rent', a term coined in 2011 by Halifax to describe young Britons with little prospect of owning their own home. 'The trend forecasters at the time said that what would be needed was a mix of functional furniture a renter might add, say, to a suite, and pieces such as scented candles or photo frames that would help them personalise a space and be happy at home,' Philippa says. 'And this is happening right now.'
Sometimes all that's needed is a simple cause-and-effect approach. Take, for example, the changing fortunes of Rubelli, the 127-year-old Italian textiles company known for its luxurious furnishing fabrics. Its CEO, Nicolò Favaretto Rubelli, explains that, in 2009, 'minimalism was still reigning and we were quite troubled about the future. We might have been regarded as a tired little company. It was a turning point and we had to react'. Rubelli enlisted the services of leading Dutch trend forecaster Li Edelkoort, who surprised the company by advising it to do nothing different. It was in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. 'She said we were entering a time when people were going to need comfort and a cocooning environment in their homes,' Nicolò recalls. 'The world would go towards the softer surfaces and colours. This would be our moment.'
It has been a winning strategy for Rubelli: after several years of sales being in the doldrums, they began to increase year on year. 'Li painted a picture of the future that reassured us,' says Nicolò. 'We learnt from her input how to be ourselves with a lot of energy and passion. It was a precious contribution and I'm very grateful for this.'
When it comes to more detailed forecasts for colours, shapes and materials, however, there is the possibility of the self-fulfilling prophesy. If retailers, terrified of missing out, are told often enough that 'natural materials are going to be all the rage next year', surely they are more likely to source products or create displays based on this idea? And if designers round the world are looking at the same reports, might it not be a case of 'trendsetting' rather than 'trend forecasting'? Although Philippa's experience is that these forecasts 'can be a bit hit and miss', she acknowledges they are influential. 'Everyone is seeing the same things, the same reference, so there is an element of wanting to be at the party,' she says. 'But at the same time, you want to be wearing a different dress. You need to have your own point of view.'
The forecasting many of us will be most familiar with relates to colours, with annual announcements of a 'colour of the year'. In December 2015, Pantone proclaimed Rose Quartz (light pink) and Serenity (light blue) as its colours of 2016, and there has been no shortage of either over the past year (House & Garden's November 2016 cover is a prime example). What is more interesting, however, is that 18 months before Pantone's announcement, WGSN had predicted this colour combination would have its moment in 2016. Lisa explains that it was chosen in part to reflect contemporary discussion about the blurring of gender boundaries. Gender identity had become a mainstream issue; a Time magazine cover story spoke of the 'Transgender tipping point'. 'Pink is not just for girls and blue is not just for boys, but these colours are for everyone, to blur boundaries,' WGSN reported. There is more evidence of this trend bedding in: at the Milan Furniture Fair in April 2016, designer Patricia Urquiola presented the '570 Gender' chair for Cassina, which is described as 'freely crossing traditional male/ female barriers' in its use of colour and form.
The fashion and interiors worlds were quick to pick up on forecasting as a tool to boost their market relevance. But today many food and drink and travel businesses are also eager to get a glimpse of the future. Martin Raymond, co-founder of the trend forecasting agency The Future Laboratory, counts the drinks conglomerate Diageo, Airbnb and Design Hotels as clients. He is an engaging, charismatic and eloquent speaker and, when we meet in his Spital- fields office, I can see why businesses pay for his company's insight. In the space of an hour, I learn about the death of the succulent - 'Everyone is looking at cut flowers now, dahlias in particular' - and that 'bitters are the next big thing' in cocktails. On the trend for shared-plate dining in restaurants, he says, 'No one does that any more.' I worry when I read the next day that an established restaurant in Mayfair has just added 'shared dining' to its 'experience'.
One behavioural shift among consumers that Martin and Lisa both mention is the evolving role of the home as a social place. 'People's homes are being seen as safe havens,' Lisa explains. 'Where we don't have to keep an eye on our bag or be afraid of a terrorist attack. This inspires people to invite others - the people they trust - into their homes.'
Martin expects to see more playfulness in the design of spaces. 'People are enjoying having parties again,' he says. 'You go out for dinner so you don't have the mess at home and then everybody comes back to yours afterwards. I think it's a reaction to how we are bored with the notion of the home being a temple.' Both mention an increased desire for textiles, upholstered furniture, comfort and warm colours. 'Look at Ebay and you'll see all these wood benches for sale,' Martin says. 'Why? Because people want cushions instead.'
'Trend' is a semantically charged word. While some might aspire to be associated with a trend, others would consider it an insult. There is an apocryphal story that Ralph Lauren once used trend forecasters to see what other fashion houses would be doing and thus avoid it. Indeed, House & Garden has shied away from the idea of promoting trends because of their fleeting and fickle connotations. That said, it would be disingenuous to suggest the design fairs and exhibitions its contributors visit and the designers with whom the magazine engages do not influence its pages in the same way they influence the trend forecasters. 'But buying into trends can be dangerous,' warns Philippa. 'Home isn't high fashion. There are things that should be flamboyant or extraordinary, which might not be the fashion of the moment, but you buy them because you love them and keep them for a long time. That's got to be more important'
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