Why President Trump might be a boon for autonomous vehicles

By A.W. | WASHINGTON, DC

DONALD TRUMP’S election has generated much uncertainty about the future of travel to America, but one group of travellers might have reason to celebrate: those who hope to ride in driverless cars.

The Obama administration hasn’t exactly cracked down on this emerging technology. The 15-point guidelines released in September by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which cover everything from data protection to allowing a sober person to take control of the vehicle in the event of a malfunction, are voluntary for now, although the agency does plan to formalise them soon. But under Mr Trump, regulation of autonomous vehicles could be far more laissez-faire—or even actively supportive.

The first clues come from his early appointments. Most notable is Elaine Chao, the former secretary of labour under George W Bush (and wife of Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell) whom Mr Trump has tapped to become secretary of transportation. Ms Chao is no fan of regulations. While she was labour secretary, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, which is responsible for cracking down on employers who endanger their workers, did not implement any big safety regulations. Her department was criticised by watchdogs in and out of government for lax enforcement of wage and mine-safety laws.

When Ms Chao’s nomination was announced, Mike Jellen, president and chief operating officer of Velodyne Lidar, told the Los Angeles Times, “We expect the new administration to be pro-innovation, pro-American innovation and pro-American employment.” What does Velodyne Lidar do? It makes sensors for driverless cars and trucks. Mr Jellen “believes enacting regulations to control advancing technology would impede innovation,” the paper reports.

Ms Chao’s appointment drew quick praise from two other companies that hope to profit hugely from the move to driverless vehicles: Uber and Lyft. The ride-hailing services have a variety of reasons to support looser regulation—they have fought local governments across the country who want to impose stricter licencing conditions—but among them is their vision of a future where car ownership is rare and people get around using a fleet of autonomous shared vehicles. John Zimmer, Lyft’s boss, recently predicted that the majority of the firm’s vehicles would be self-driving within five years, and that by 2025 car ownership in American cities will “all but end”. A Lyft spokesman greeted the news of Ms Chao’s appointment by saying the company has “the utmost respect for her”; an Uber spokesman congratulated her and praised her “extensive” knowledge.

Speaking of Uber, it is not just the recruitment of Ms Chao that has driverless-car advocates giddy. It is also two appointments to a Trump advisory team on policy. One is Travis Kalanick, Uber’s chief executive, the other is Elon Musk, the boss of Tesla, an electric-car maker. Mr Musk pledged this autumn to make a driverless car by the end of 2017 that can transport itself from Los Angeles to New York without human assistance. Getting such a thing on the roads, of course, would require a form of human assistance—namely, from government regulators. Particularly as just this month California, the proposed starting point for Mr Musk’s trek, ordered Uber to shut down an experiment in autonomous motoring in San Francisco.

Transportation modernists, urbanists and environmentalists dream of a not-too-distant future in which most vehicles are shared, autonomous and electric. Gone, they hope, will be the days of burning fuel while searching for parking or sitting in traffic induced by human error. Silicon Valley types and the green-brigade were hardly fans of Mr Trump during the election. But it is not inconceivable that he could help bring their dream to fruition. Particularly if his proposed investment in infrastructure—which he has suggested could reach $1 trillion—aids in the development of the required technology.

Then again, if Uber has its say, flying cars could come next. Perhaps Mr Kalanick can persuade President Trump to skip the fussy road improvements and invest in helipads instead.