Prices for round-trip flights from U.S. cities to Europe have hit 30-year lows in recent weeks thanks to a mix of factors, including cheap European hotels, a strong dollar and terrorism fears — and Denver is in a unique position, for better and worse, according to travel experts.
“1985 was the year people said, ‘My God, it could never be like this again,’ ” said Joe Brancatelli, editor of the nonprofit business-traveler site joesentme.com. “But this is like 1985 again.”
A list of European destinations via fare-search site momondo.com (compiled by freemilestraveler.com) reveals a number of round-trip flights from Denver to European cities for around, or well under, $500, including:
- A week in Paris, leaving from Denver in May, for $432 round-trip
- Denver to London, leaving April 7, for $526
- Denver to Barcelona trip for $396
- Denver to Naples in May for $507
- Denver-to Brussels in May for $406
- Denver to Edinburgh in May for $447
- Denver to Helsinki in the spring for $458
- Denver to Munich in the spring for $508
- Denver to Amsterdam in May for $561
- Denver to Madrid in April for $385
“The dollar is going berserk. It’s only $1.25 against the pound and it’s getting near to parity against the euro,” said Brancatelli, who also cited the fact that travel service Airbnb has taken away business from hotels, forcing them to lower prices. “And in places where Americans want to go, like France, Belgium and some parts of Turkey, there are terrorism fears, so business is down for them.”
It may not last, however, especially in Colorado. The Denver metro area contains plenty of potential customers within a short drive of Denver International Airport. But it has an extremely low “catchment rate,” meaning there are few potential customers outside the concentrated geographical population centers along the Front Range.
That makes the Front Range vulnerable to a rise in airfares once flights begin filling up elsewhere, given that we have a relatively small amount of international airlines compared to airports in Chicago, Houston, Atlanta or major coastal cities.
“Denver could lose it first,” Brancatelli said. “If United feels they’re filling up the planes elsewhere, they’re not going to give you a bargain because they feel they own you.”
Another warning sign is that Europeans are not looking to come to the U.S., since what is good for us with currency has suddenly made America a high-cost destination for them.
“When you’ve got an imbalance in travel, all it takes to burst that bubble is another terror attack, and then the airlines will cut those routes,” Brancatelli added.
The fares are holding out for now, however, due to the relatively low cost of oil and an uptick in business travel, which helps fill the front of the plane and spurs airlines to offer more international flights in general — which in turn must be filled to capacity for the sake of efficiency.
The bottom line?
“If you’re looking to travel next summer, buy now,” Brancatelli said.
