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Few playoff contenders are flawless in fantasy football. And those that are see their studs rested at the worst time. With that in mind, let's examine fringe starters at each position that I think have a good chance of helping teams during the playoffs.
For additional views on these players and others from a panel of writers, check out this week's Footballguys Roundtable.
Quarterbacks
The best advice I can give you about fantasy quarterbacks (and really any position for that matter) at the end of the year is to divorce quality from production. Long-term fantasy options maintain a specific level of quality that earns them a starting role. Short-term fantasy options can make horrific decisions, lose games, and eventually get benched, but if they're given the ball enough times, the production will still be there.
If you need a backup in case Brady, Carr, Prescott, Wilson, Stafford, or Ryan get rested during the final two weeks—or your matchups with your current options are truly ugly, these guys below are worth adding to your roster.
Matt Barkley: The former USC quarterback should be viewed as a top-tier garbage time backup for the rest of the year. Forget the facts that he was over-hyped as a collegian, didn't stick in Philadelphia or Arizona, and that his arm isn't Matthew Stafford's. Focus on points, not players.
Barkley's 300-yard 3-touchdown performance against the Titans is a great sign because he earned this production with three backups in his receiving corps and the Bears offense collectively dropped 8 passes. Why is this a great sign, Matt? Doesn't it mean they'll drop more passes?
It's a great sign because dropped passes are symptomatic of players overthinking things on the field or haven't fully established a rapport. If the context for these dropped passes were a group of receivers fighting for more playing team every week, it would be a bad sign and at best, lead to less playing time.
But that's not the context! The Bears are trotting out whatever is available on their offense due to injuries and suspension. Mistakes be damned, just keep throwing and hope for the best.
The best may still be ahead. Barkley faces San Francisco, Detroit, Green Bay, and Washington down the stretch. Let's examine why Barkley is a fantasy option from this scheduling angle:
- Since Week 6, San Francisco has allowed at least two passing touchdowns every week with the exception of Carson Palmer's Week 10 output—and Palmer threw the ball 49 times for 376 yards in that outing. To be fair, the quarterbacks the 49ers have faced include names like Brady, Brees, Tannehill, and Winston, but even Drew Stanton and Tyrod Taylor threw a pair of TDs apiece.
- Detroit has given up 300-yard games to Brian Hoyer, Andrew Luck, Case Keenum, and Kirk Cousins. Hoyer and Keenum aren't part of a Murderer's Row. The only two quarterbacks that struggled were Brock Osweiler and Blake Bortles—and Bortles threw two touchdowns.
- Green Bay's secondary and linebacking corps are hurting as much as the Bears receiving corps. The packers have given up at least 280 yards and 3 touchdowns in 3 of the past 5 games and the unit gave up at least 3 passing scores in 5 of its 12 games this year.
- Washington, like Green Bay, has the offense to force a game script of garbage-time passing for its opponents. Washington's defense has a pass rush, but its secondary is a paper champion. Six quarterbacks have thrown for at least 280 yards on this defense.
Although the NFL has a lot of differences from the college game, Barkley has played with a lot of NFL quality players and the strength of his game is reading the field.
Trevor Siemian: I've been pairing Siemian with Carson Palmer in one league where I'm strong at every position but quarterback and the results have been positive, although it would have been a lot more fun to have started Siemian last week and beat 11-0 (now 12-1) Matt Harmon by a lot more points than I did in this league. But I digress with trash talk...
What has impressed me most with Siemian is his poise. There was a stretch in the first half where Justin Houston had a vice grip on the Broncos offense, but it didn't rattle Siemian. Watch him eventually get the best of Houston on this play.
I like Siemian's confidence to throw to the open man and not just Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. He's a quick-thinker who gets rid of the ball fast. He also sees the field well. He displayed a great reaction to a blitz with no safety covering deep and found Bennie Fowler with excellent anticipation and placement for a 76-yard score to give Denver the lead late in this game.
None of this is new with Siemian. The jury is out on his long-term starter potential for a few reasons—chief among them is his arm. Watch his deep throws. Even those that hit the mark tend to lag a little behind the receiver and it forces the player to slow down.
This isn't an issue on wide-open throws, but it's problematic against single coverage that's tight—the majority of scenarios quarterbacks should expect to throw the deep ball in the NFL.
Right now, none of that matters. Thomas and Sanders are an excellent tandem of wideouts and the Jaguars, Titans, and Patriots aren't difficult matchups:
- The Jaguars have allowed at least two touchdowns to quarterbacks with a strong and healthy tandem of receivers, including Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, and Brock Osweiler.
- The Titans are a sieve for a pass defense during the past seven weeks. Five quarterbacks have thrown for over 300 yards and at least 2 touchdowns, including Barkley, and Blake Bortles.
- New England has allowed 7 touchdowns to Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, and Ryan Fitzpatrick during the past 3 weeks and other than Wilson and, maybe, Carson Palmer in Week 1, the Patriots haven't faced a quarterback that is either playing well or has a receiving corps as strong as Denver's.
Denver ends this slate with a rematch in Arrowhead. Although the pass rush will remain strong, the secondary is susceptible to big plays and I wouldn't be surprised if Siemian has another week with multiple scores.
Jared Goff: I'm not sold on Goff as an every-week option but if you need a desperation matchup play during Weeks 14 and 16, he's worth consideration. Now that he's had several months to learn the verbiage of the play calls and integrate drops from center with route timing, he doesn't appear overwhelmed like he did this summer.
The deep accuracy, aggressive attitude, and willingness to hang in the pocket are all on display with Goff's game. It's a good start considering the lackluster Rams offensive line and a receiving corps filled with incomplete players.
This doesn't seem like much of a play, but his ability to slide left and reset fast to deliver the ball on time and accurately is an underrated thing for a rookie feeling pressure.
The pocket presence on this touchdown pass to Kendricks below is also strong. Consider that Goff clearly feels the pocket compressing from each end as he comes off his first read and instead of overreacting, he resets and fires to his second read early.
Why is it early? Look at Kendricks at the end of the video. When he finishes his first break, he's about to move to an open spot when he realizes the ball is in the air.
New England will probably throw some things at Goff that will confuse him although I thought the same would happen in his debut against Miami and it didn't. Goff sniffed out some difficult disguised blitzes pre-snap that I've seen other teams successfully throw at the likes of Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, and even more established veterans.
If Goff has a similar outing against the Patriots that he did with the Dolphins and Saints, I'll feel far more confident about going to Goff in a desperation situation against Atlanta and San Francisco.
Running back
There aren't many worth mentioning. Wendell Smallwood gets what the line gives him and he's a good receiver, but he's splitting time with Darren Sproles and I believe Sproles remains the best playmaker on the team. If not for an illegal block by Dorial Green-Beckham on a screen pass, Sproles would have had a much better outing on Monday night. Add Ryan Mathews into the equation sometime during the next three weeks and the Eagles are a fantasy quagmire.
Unless you're in a league where the likes of Derrick Henry becomes available this late in the year, you have no shot at him. I like the slant of the Broncos, Chiefs, and Jaguars Weeks 14-16 and he has played well whenever he gets extended time.
Charcandrick West might be the best "surprise" to consider of the bunch. Andy Reid is dead set on using a committee rotation despite the fact that Spencer Ware has done nothing to hurt his standing as the best back on the team.
West isn't as sound of a blocker as Ware, but his speed presents an element in space that makes him a compelling contributor for the Chiefs staff. With Atlanta, Oakland, Tennessee, and Denver on the schedule, I'd pick up West if you have Ware or if you so desperate that you need a body in your RB2 or RB3 slot and can't flex a receiver or tight end of note.
What about Adrian Peterson, you ask? Sprinting at full speed is different than cutting and taking contact. That's one thing I've learned from listening to Jene Bramel for all these years.
Peterson is ahead of schedule and he may be ready to go by the second or third week of December, but unless you have no one to use who is at least guaranteed points or you have a luxury spot to wait-and-see (good luck deciding on whether to start him over an established RB1-RB2 if he does see the field), then the trio of Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Green Bay is promising even if Peterson's offensive line and likely timeshare with McKinnon and Asiata aren't.
Your best option might be none of the above. My advice? Monitor backups with promising schedules in case the starter gets hurt. Here's a brief list of players to consider:
- Jalen Richard: If Latavius Murray gets hurt, Richard is the most trustworthy back behind Murray on the depth chart. He's a good pass catcher and has big-play ability once he reaches the open field. The Chiefs, Chargers, and Colts are decent matchups during Weeks 14-16. If you're really desperate, Jamize Olawale has the big-play ability as a receiver and red zone viability.
- Andre Ellington: The Cardinals Week 14-16 schedule of Miami, New Orleans, and Seattle isn't great, but he's a fine receiver and it makes him a good dual-threat who will likely earn decent production if David Johnson gets hurt. Don't sell Kerwynn Williams short if Ellington gets hurt, too.
- Buffalo's backfield: If LeSean McCoy goes down, Mike Gillislee and Reggie Bush will have flex value. The fact that Jonathan Williams got some play last week is also noteworthy. Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Miami all have weaknesses against the run.
- Ka'Deem Carey: It's possible that Jeremy Langford leapfrogs Carey of Jordan Howard gets hurt, but I'm not buying it. I think John Fox believes in Carey more than Langford. A solid receiver who runs hard between the tackles, Carey could earn the majority of carries against the Detroit, Washington, and Green Bay. He won't offer high-end production, but it could be steady.
- Bilal Powell: He's a proven commodity with versatility to his game. He's not a dynamic runner who will author huge games unless he earns a lot of garbage-time looks or there's a matchup that the Jets find a way to exploit in a big way in the red zone. Still, he could earn enough volume with a potential Forte injury that he'll be a fine play against the 49ers, Dolphins, and Patriots.
- Peyton Barber: You probably didn't notice, but Barber continues earning productive carries with Doug Martin's return to the lineup. This workload includes carries between the 20s, in the red zone, and in the passing game. If Martin has a relapse, two matchups with New Orleans and a tilt in Dallas could make Barber a worthwhile option.
Wide Receivers
Ted Ginn Jr: I think the Panthers finally got the memo that Ginn is more important to its passing game than any player on the roster. Yes, I meant what I just wrote and no, I can't believe I wrote it, either.
Ginn's speed with Cam Newton's arm legitimately scares defenses. He's the Reggie Jackson of the NFL right now (sorry for my dated baseball references, it was the last time I actually cared about the game).
The Seahawks and Chargers will be tougher draws in Week 13-14, but Josh Norman doesn't fair well with speed guys and Atlanta's Desmond Trufant is done for the year. I have no problem inserting Ginn if I were in a tough spot with a receiver position in my lineup.
Desean Jackson: You're probably not landing him anywhere, but it always surprises me who is available in leagues. Jackson looks a lot healthier than he did in Weeks 5-9. I also love what Washington is doing with its scheme to work two-man games with Jackson and Vernon Davis. Philadelphia, Carolina, and Chicago have difficulties covering speedy guys with sudden quickness. Jackson will turn corners around and around betwene Weeks 14-16. And don't be surprised if he has a strong game against the Cardinals regardless of Patrick Peterson's status.
Marquess Wilson: This stretch-run is the 24-year-old's tryout for a new team. He's a good fade-route option with burst after the catch on crossing routes. Think of him as a poor man's Tyrell Williams down the stretch. He'll be used him similar ways with perhaps more fade routes. Look at the section on Matt Barkley and you'll know why his schedule is favorable, too.
Tight Ends
Lance Kendricks: You can see the budding rapport he's developed with Jared Goff earlier in this article. The schedule includes New England, Atlanta, Seattle, and San Francisco. The Falcons and 49ers don't cover well with its current linebacking corps so I expect Kendricks to earn plum opportunities in these games.
Seattle's weakness is routes that cross the width of the field and require its linebackers, corners, and safeties to pass off each player to the other zone. It's a built-in weakness with the defense that's normally covered up by the strength of its pass rush.
Until Michael Bennett returns (and he may by the time the Rams play Seattle so note this point) the Seahawks aren't as dangerous with pressure. That additional time means more pressure on the secondary to communicate well. There will be breakdowns and if Goff can stand in the pocket like I've seen him do at Cal and thus far with the Rams, Kendricks is a big-play second read in this offense.
Jermaine Gresham: Carson Palmer and Gresham are old teammates spanning back to their days in Cincinnati. Gresham has earned 11 catches, 105 yards, and 2 scores since Week 10 and the schedule is a promising one for the tight end. Washington's defense has given up at least 50 yards to 6 tight ends in 12 weeks.
Gresham is not a big yards guy, but he'll help in the red zone. When Miami faced a quarterback willing to throw to the middle of the field, tight ends have thrived. Martellus Bennett, Gary Barnidge, C.J. Uzomah, Delanie Walker, Antonio Gates, and Vance McDonald all had solid days against the Dolphins defense.
And I don't have to explain the Saints or the the Seahawks (I just did).
My own personal playoff scenarios in context of these players
I play in eight leagues. Barring a disaster this week, I should be in the playoffs in five of them. I'm only in two re-draft leagues. I made the playoffs in both of them.
I'm the sixth seed in this crazy dynasty league that allows for a wide range of lineup scenarios (up to 5 RBs, 5 WRs or 5 TEs):
I'm considering Ginn and Sims—especially Ginn—as a big-play option considering some of the matchups I face this week with my running backs.
I'm 10-2 in the Footballguys OG Staff League and I believe I've sewn up the top seed. But I have some clear holes in a roster that will be facing some strong scorers in the playoffs.
A few weeks ago I added Abdullah and dropped Adrian Peterson. It appears John Bostic might have the edge to earn the IR return over Abdullah. I'm considering Peterson, Ellington, and Richard. Gresham and Sims are also in the mix.
Because this is a super-flex league, Barkley is earning real consideration.
I'm still battling for the division crown and the scoring title in this league:
As you can see, I've held onto Ellington. It might be worth my while to add Barkely or Goff in case I don't like my matchups for Smith if Wilson gets hurt.
| Player | YTD Pts | Bye | Year | Drafted | Trade? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smith, Alex KCC QB | 134.56 | 5 | FA | ||
| Wilson, Russell SEA QB | 167.60 | 5 | 2015 | 6.01 | |
| Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB | 151.90 | 13 | 6.12 | ||
| Dixon, Kenneth BAL RB (R) | 37.10 | 8 | 9.01 | ||
| Ellington, Andre ARI RB | 21.20 | 9 | 2014 | 15.03 | |
| Johnson, David ARI RB (Q) | 286.40 | 9 | 7.01 | ||
| Ware, Spencer KCC RB | 149.70 | 5 | 11.01 | ||
| Brown, Antonio PIT WR | 243.70 | 8 | 1.01 | ||
| Brown, John ARI WR (Q) | 77.90 | 9 | 4.12 | ||
| Carroo, Leonte MIA WR (R) | 11.90 | 8 | 16.12 | ||
| Enunwa, Quincy NYJ WR | 131.30 | 11 | FA | ||
| Jones, Marvin DET WR | 139.30 | 10 | 5.01 | ||
| Stills, Kenny MIA WR | 104.00 | 8 | FA | ||
| Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR | 165.80 | 11 | 2.12 | ||
| Davis, Vernon WAS TE | 88.00 | 9 | FA | ||
| Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE | 124.80 | 6 | 18.12 | ||
| Thomas, Julius JAC TE (Q) | 82.10 | 5 | 2014 | 12.05 | |
| Hopkins, Dustin WAS PK | 115.80 | 9 | FA | ||
| Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK | 103.40 | 10 | FA | ||
| Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def | 79.00 | 9 | 13.01 | ||
| 20 Total Players | |||||
| Injured Reserve | |||||
| Griffin III, Robert CLE QB (I) | 9.03 | 13 | 17.01 | ||
| Anderson, C.J. DEN RB (I) | 102.50 | 11 | 2015 | 14.05 | |
Good luck, everybody...
