Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | Green Bay | -2.5 | 52.5 | 27.5 | ++ | ++ | |
New England | Buffalo | -6.5 | 47 | 26.75 | ++ | +++ | |
Kansas City | Indianapolis | -3 | 50 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Tampa Bay | Oakland | -1.5 | 49.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
Carolina | Arizona | -3 | 48 | 25.5 | + | + | |
Seattle | New Orleans | -2.5 | 48 | 25.25 | + | + | |
Green Bay | Atlanta | 2.5 | 52.5 | 25 | + | + | |
Cincinnati | Washington | -3 | 47 | 25 | + | + | |
NY Jets | Cleveland | -5.5 | 43 | 24.25 | + | ++ | |
Oakland | Tampa Bay | 1.5 | 49.5 | 24 | |||
Houston | Detroit | -3 | 45 | 24 | |||
Denver | San Diego | -4.5 | 43.5 | 24 | + | ||
Dallas | Philadelphia | -4.5 | 43.5 | 24 | + | ||
Tennessee | Jacksonville | -3.5 | 43.5 | 23.5 | |||
Indianapolis | Kansas City | 3 | 50 | 23.5 | |||
Minnesota | Chicago | -5.5 | 40.5 | 23 | +++ | ||
New Orleans | Seattle | 2.5 | 48 | 22.75 | |||
Arizona | Carolina | 3 | 48 | 22.5 | |||
Washington | Cincinnati | 3 | 47 | 22 | |||
Detroit | Houston | 3 | 45 | 21 | |||
Buffalo | New England | 6.5 | 47 | 20.25 | |||
Jacksonville | Tennessee | 3.5 | 43.5 | 20 | |||
San Diego | Denver | 4.5 | 43.5 | 19.5 | |||
Philadelphia | Dallas | 4.5 | 43.5 | 19.5 | |||
Cleveland | NY Jets | 5.5 | 43 | 18.75 | |||
Chicago | Minnesota | 5.5 | 40.5 | 17.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots)
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Vikings
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Tom Brady (Patriots), Alex Smith (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Spencer Ware (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Jacob Tamme (Falcons), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski/Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Jeremy Maclin/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Jets
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Cam Newton (Panthers), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Andy Dalton (Bengals)
- Running Back: Jacquizz Rodgers (Buccaneers), Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), Christine Michael (Seahawks), Ty Montgomery (Packers), Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard (Bengals), Matt Forte (Jets)
- Receivers: Mike Evans/Adam Humphries/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Kelvin Benjamin/Corey Brown/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Davante Adams (Packers), A.J. Green/Brandon LaFell/Tyler Eifert (Bengals)
- Defense: Broncos, Cowboys