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You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Touring the Terrelle Pryor Bandwagon
The former quarterback was the talk of Week 3 after posting 200 combined yards and a touchdown on the Dolphins as a receiver, passer, and runner. With Corey Coleman out for a while with a hand injury and Josh Gordon stepping away from football to check into a rehab facility, fantasy owners are taking a much harder look at the Pryor Bandwagon.
The heightened scrutiny of Pryor's rest of the season value makes sense. He plays for the Browns and its carousel of quarterbacks. He's a failed quarterback prospect. And if the brain cloud that has hung over the organization since Art Modell took the coward's way out is still firmly in place.
Enter Matt Harmon, who does three things as well as anyone: care for a dog, patio gardening, and examining the route efficiency of wide receivers. If you don't know about Reception Perception, I congratulate you for escaping solitary confinement.
Harmon notes that Pryor's success rate versus coverage "stand(s) out as an optimistic point in his young career as an NFL wide receiver:"
Pryor’s 91.7 percent success rate on slant routes was notable. A quick look at his highlights showed him turning around Byron Maxwell on quick slants before sprinting into the open field. At his size with truly scary speed, Pryor looks like some sort of mutant gazelle running through an environment where onlookers don’t really know what they’re seeing. Unfortunately for the opposing teams, these onlookers happen to be their defenders in this scenario.
His 100 percent success rate on curls and comebacks was encouraging as well. Receivers have to integrate multiple layers of technique to release from the line, sell the vertical route and then break free from tight coverage at the break point to earn separation on these patterns. Pryor demonstrates his developmental progress on these two scores.
Pryor could stand to improve as a vertical threat. Despite his scary size/speed combination, he’s not yet converting deep reps with regularity. His 42.9 percent success rate on nine routes is below the league average. Pryor is capable of Mossing defenders, think back to his Week 1 big play against the Eagles, and at 6’4 he can win a jump ball. However, his poor 25 percent contested catch conversion rate from this game shows it is not a yet a strength of his game. Taking more physical punishment and engaging in physical clashes might subtly be the biggest adjustment point in the move from quarterback to tight end. Rounding out that point in his game will be the key to Pryor taking the next step.
Harmon concludes that if all Pryor ever becomes is what he's shown right now, "then his transition [is] still a smashing success."
Sigmund Bloom, who has a first class seat on the Pryor Bandwagon noted in his Sleepers feature that Pryor, who has 31 targets after 3 weeks, "[W]ill be a target hog. He's not just a sleeper, he's nearly a must play against a defense that has allowed an opposing wide receiver to go for over 100 yards in each of the first three games."
According to Jeff Haseley's Beyond The Stats, Pryor can do even better. He and Tavon Austin have the most receptions with a sub-50 percent reception percentage.
A lot of this analysis implies that Pryor's fantasy value hasn't caught up with his production. DFS is a great place to gauge a player's current market value and Devin Knotts underscores the public's thoughts on the Browns receiver in this week's DFS Roundtable.
...when I look at a player who is a must play, I look at someone who is too cheap for the production, and that player is Terrelle Pryor this week. Most sites have him priced outside the top 20 wide receivers this week. For those that may not have watched, Pryor is turning into a player through whom the Browns are going to force their offense. As a wide receiver last week, Pryor had 14 targets for 144 yards. He also took 14 snaps at quarterback, a role that Hue Jackson said could increase this week as the Browns take on Washington. The Browns are expected to be down in this game, which means they are going to have to throw the ball a lot, and Pryor is the number one player in this offense.
As you can see, some trusted Footballguys staff are on the bandwagon for not only this week, but the rest of the season. One dissenting voice is Aaron Rudnicki. He lists Pryor's matchup with Josh Norman as a bad one this weekend in his feature Exposed.
Pryor can get a boost with his usage at QB for the depleted Browns, but his upside at WR this week figures to be limited by a matchup with Josh Norman. [No.1] WRs facing Washington have actually done really well in all 3 games this year, but much of their success came against Bashaud Breeland. He’s dealing with a high ankle sprain, so chances are Norman will get to shadow Pryor.
If you're going to be down on Pryor this week, Norman is the primary argument.
My Advice: One of the points Bloom broached Thursday night during The Audible Live! is that people are far too cautious about Pryor because they see him as a "failed NFL quarterback." His excellent counterpoint is that Pryor was a ridiculous athlete who has made impressive strides in a year and a half. We shouldn't knock him if we didn't knock Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, or Tony Gonzalez for being "failed college basketball power forwards."
From the sole perspective of athletic talent, the players Pryor reminds me of the most are Julio Jones and DeMaryius Thomas. It's no coincidence that Pryor has assiduously studied Jones' game since agreeing to the transition from quarterback. And let's get real here: neither Jones nor Thomas entered the NFL as remotely finished products at the receiver position.
Jones and Thomas were limited route runners in college offenses that leaned hard on their superior athletic ability. Both players did most of their technical refinement at the position in the NFL. There's no reason that Pryor, who was also regarded as a superior athlete in high school and college, can't do the same. As Harmon pointed out, he already has.
There is one housekeeping note I will make with Harmon's analysis about Byron Maxwell.
The broadcast crew from the Browns-Dolphins game made an excellent point about Pryor's success against Maxwell that adds more context to Harmon's point: The Dolphins' new corner came from a Seattle defense where he played tight man coverage (press). Miami has asked Maxwell to play off-man and he has struggled mightily with this adjustment and he was demoted for the Week 4 game in Cincinnati. When Maxwell earned a press opportunity against Pryor, he completely shut down the receiver.
Even so, count me as a believer in Pryor's abilities—I drafted him in one league and I've had him in a couple of dynasty formats since last year. I'm starting him this week against Washington and Josh Norman. Although Washington used Norman to shadow Odell Beckham last week, Andy Benoit's column last week at MMQB did a good job explaining why Norman isn't likely to do this every week.
The current discussion based on coaches statements to the media is that Washington doesn't intend to shadow Pryor . It tells me that if Washington makes the change, it will happen during the game and only after Pryor has done enough damage that anything with Norman on him will be icing on the fantasy cake.
2. Carolina on my mind
Let's stick with the DFS content as a way of validating the word on the street concerning a player or team's value. Steve Buzzard's Building Bankroll feature discusses the value of Cam Newton.
I have heard some initial conversations of people saying that Newton’s price is too expensive [$9,300] and you should be fading him but I think that’s a mistake. Newton has a prime matchup against the Atlanta Falcons who are allowing the 29th most passing yards as well as a league leading 10 passing touchdowns. I don’t expect Newton to have much trouble moving the ball through the air and on the ground. If Atlanta can keep it close, which I expect, Newton should be one of the safer plays this week.
This lack of confidence stems a lot from the Vikings game. Cornerback Captain Munnerlyn told the media that the team didn't think Devin Funchess was that good and it helped them focus on the rest of the Panthers offense was a damning shot at a young prospect who hasn't seen the field much, to begin with.
Aaron Rudnicki also lists this weekend's game with the Falcons as a bad matchup for Kelvin Benjamin in Exposed.
Benjamin was held without a catch on just 1 target last week as the Panthers offensive line had trouble slowing down the Vikings pass rush. The Falcons defense won’t have nearly as much success up front, but Benjamin should still have his hands full with Desmond Trufant for much of the game. Trufant may not be a true shutdown corner, but he’s certainly capable of taking a WR out of the game for long stretches.
David Dodds disagrees. He projects Benjamin as the No.12 fantasy WR this weekend against Atlanta. I think this stems from what we learned from the Upgrade/Downgrade Reports on Benjamin's Player Page, including the news of offensive coordinator Mike Shula taking responsibility for Benjamin's catch-less Sunday versus Minnesota:
NEWS YOU NEED TO KNOW
From the upgrade/downgrade report (Mon Sep 26): Benjamin should bounce back against the trio of NFC South opponents coming up for the Panthers, but the ability of the Vikings to blot him out of the game completely is still troubling for a receiver that looked like an elite WR1 for fantasy heading into Week 3. We won't bench Benjamin, but this opens the door to rockier 2016 than we expected.
General News (Tue Sep 27): should be more involved going forward after not catching a pass in Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings. He was only targeted once. "We've got to find a way to get him the ball more. That starts with me," offensive coordinator Mike Shula said. "But we've got to make sure we're doing it in a way that we're not just trying to force him the ball."
Once again, Sigmund Bloom had a sound point on The Audible Live! that because Carolina's offense was strong against the Broncos and 49ers, we shouldn't be as concerned about a poor week against a Vikings defense that might be the best unit in football.
My Advice: I watched the Vikings-Panthers game and Minnesota slowed Cam Newton's decision-making process with a lot of Double A-Gap pressure looks (linebackers crowding the two gaps between the center and his guards). This particular pressure look and the variations that Minnesota employed is one of the most difficult for quarterbacks to handle well.
Not all defenses do it because it requires great drop-and-cover skills from the linebacking unit, middle linebackers who can get to the quarterback (there's a reason why most middle linebackers aren't outside linebackers in a 3-4), and it requires savvy support from safeties and corners. The Vikings defense have all of that.
While Newton is a terrific young quarterback, he's still developing as a field general in the area of pre-snap/post-snap skill. The best quarterbacks are generally those who have played 8-10 years.
Philip Rivers beat the Vikings A-gap pressure in the preseason with a late change to a running play into the teeth of the pressure that resulted in a Melvin Gordon touchdown. As great of a diagnosis as it was, Rivers got tackle just as he made the exchange with Gordon and it was an outcome that could have gone horribly awry even with the right adjustment.
Andrew Garda summarizes the impact of Newton lacking time to read the field and find his first option very well in the DFS Roundtable:
Garda: Football Outsiders DVOA has the Atlanta defense as the worst in the NFL, ranked 31st against the pass and 29th against the run. As that's the case, it's hard not to like Kelvin Benjamin for a bounce-back week. As rad as the Vikings defense is—and rest assured, it is fantastic—the Falcons is that bad. As much trouble as Benjamin had getting open and Cam Newton had getting time to find him last week, things should be the opposite this week as the two should have all day to hook up.
My point: don't worry about Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin, or Greg Olsen and if Tedd Ginn is still hanging out on the corner of your waiver wire, tell him to hop on the bed of your Carolina fantasy bandwagon—we know he has the speed to catch up if you roll a week without him. I agree with Bloom that this is a strong offense that got derailed by a strong defense and we won't see it happen again until at least Week 8 against Arizona and I'm just listing them as a possible obstacle, not one that's likely.
Truth be told, I'm surprising my father-in-law with a Falcons game this fall when he travels down to visit from Baltimore. When Alicia asked me if the Panthers game was a good option, I told her absolutely not. Seeing Carolina's talent could be fun, but watching a good game takes precedence.
You already know from my Top 10 feature that this Atlanta linebacking corps is speedy but inexperienced and not good at tackling. Start Newton, Benjamin, and Olsen with confidence. Alicia's dad and I will be heading to the Chiefs game instead.
3. Dez-less Cowboys
Dez Bryant is missing this weekend's game due to a hairline fracture in his knee. And I'm saying this definitively despite Jason Garrett saying that Byrant has a chance to play this week.
It's because I trust Jene Bramel far more than Garrett when Bramel goes the hole strong on an injury. It's exactly what he did in his Wednesday Injury Expectations feature:
The other shoe dropped on Dez Bryant on Wednesday, and it was a heavy one. It took a few hours for the media to confirm specifics but Bryant has a tibial plateau fracture in his knee. Jason Garrett said Bryant could be either day-to-day or week-to-week and adamantly said Bryant has a chance to play this week.
The first part of those comments is nonsense. It's akin to John Fox still calling Alshon Jeffery day-to-day last preseason after he'd already missed more than two weeks of practice. The second part of Garrett's comments is tough to believe, too. I cannot think of a player who recovered from a tibial plateau fracture -- which is an injury it's difficult and arguably very risk to allow to weight bear, much less play football -- in less than six weeks. We have seen players return from bone bruises around the knee in less than two weeks. But that's not what's been reported or described by the team.
The Cowboys have a Week 7 bye. If what's currently been reported is accurate, I think it's very unlikely we see Bryant before the bye week.
The immediate thought has been "bump up Cole Beasley and Jason Witten and expect the Cowboys to lean harder on Ezekiel Elliott."
Cole Beasley (at SF) - Dez Bryant looks highly unlikely to play this week, so Beasley becomes the de facto #1 receiver forDak Prescott in a matchup that should produce fantasy points. The 49ers gave up three wide receiver scores in Week 2, andDoug Baldwin had a 164-yard game last week even though Russell Wilson left the game injured. Beasley has at least eight catches and 65 yards in every game this year, he should get even more looks from Beasley with Bryant likely on the sidelines. The extra opportunity the fast-paced but inept San Francisco offense allows only helps Beasley’s case as a sleeper this week.
Jeff Haseley's Beyond The Stats: Dallas' Reception Margin (top receiver's lead over the next-best option) is Cole Beasley (20) +6 over Jason Witten.
Jeff Pasquino in the DFS Roundtable:
Pasquino: I will have a lot of exposure to Ezekiel Elliott this week as Dallas visits San Francisco. The 49ers looked terrible last week, and the Cowboys ran the Bears ragged on Sunday Night Football. If Christine Michael can run for 100 yards and two scores in three quarters, what will Elliott do? With Dez Bryant now hobbled with a hairline fracture, I see Elliott touching the ball at least 25 times, no question. Given how Chip Kelly’s 49ers do not care about time of possession and that they play so fast, the opposing teams get to run a lot more plays than usual. Carolina ran 84 plays in Week 2, and Seattle had the ball for almost 36 minutes, running 70 plays in a blowout (and they could have easily had more in a close game). Given Elliott’s price point, I love him as a pivot off of Bell, who is everyone’s favorite this week.
But from a passing perspective, Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant describe the 49ers game as a Neutral matchup:
Mark and Joe say: Neutral matchup. Dak Prescott did a good job setting up the running game with just enough passes (19/24 for 248 yards passing, one TD and zero interceptions thrown, with zero sacks taken - vs. 41/199/3 rushing) to keep the defense backed off the line of scrimmage. He shared in the scoring fest in the rushing phase of the game with 4/36/1 to his credit. Prescott found Cole Beasley the most (seven targets for 7/73/0 receiving), also routinely hitting Terrance Williams (four for 4/88/0) and Dez Bryant (six for 3/40/1). Jason Witten caught a couple of balls - two targets for 2/25/0 - and ultimately the Cowboys won 31-17.
The Dallas offense isn't built around the passing game, but when they take to the air Prescott has been effective...The 49ers' defense may be down a starting defensive back as cornerback/free safety Jimmie Ward is week-to-week with a quad strain suffered in the loss to the Seahawks last week.
So far this season the 49ers average 254.7 net passing yards allowed per game (14th in the NFL) with six passing scores given out vs. four interceptions and five sacks generated to date...Over the first three weeks of the season, San Francisco has averaged 21.5 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks (13th-most in the NFL); and 23.8 fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers (16th); with 12.3 fantasy points given up per game to tight ends (fourth-most). This is a so-so, middle-of-the-road secondary coming into Week Four. This looks like a neutral matchup for the young Dallas starter with much depending on Bryant's status.
My Advice: Cole Beasley was a mid-range fantasy PPR WR3 (No.30) before Dez Bryant's injury. Jason Witten is the No.15 TE in PPR formats heading into the weekend. I'm only giving Beasley and Witten a slight upgrade:
- Beasley is now a strong WR3 in PPR formats and a low-end standard format WR3.
- Witten is a low-end TE1 at best in PPR and mid-range TE2 in standard formats.
It may seem a counterintuitive thought because without Bryant the team will have to lean on the other two more. But without Bryant, they lack a credible threat capable of stretching the defense in any number of ways. Bryant was that sole receiver who could run every route into any zone of the defense and draw attention away from the complementary routes benefitting form his presence.
While Witten and Beasley often work within the same zone to create route pairs that give Dak Prescott easy looks, the threat of Bryant has been a huge reason why these looks happen with ease. Defenses aren't going to blitz the Cowboys when Bryant could burn them.
Without Bryant, I'm betting Dak Prescott is about to see a lot more pressure. While the Cowboys line is excellent, it's not going to contain every pressure package sent its way.
I also think opposing defenses will load the box to slow Ezekiel Elliott's production and dare Dallas to throw without Bryant in the mix. They'll also do it while blitzing Prescott.
The positive is that Beasley, Witten, Terrence Williams, and Brice Butler could earn big plays with blitz beaters but that's the ideal situation. Beasley has two receptions on passes that traveled more than 20 yards in his career. Witten is savvy but no longer quick. And if Williams was so dangerous, we'd be talking about him more.
One of them might earn a catch and run or benefit from a blown coverage from a blitz once a week. Guessing who it will be is difficult. After last week's game, I had Elliott as a RB1 again. Now that Bryant is out, I'm dropping him back to a low-end RB2.
Let's hope I'm dead wrong and the rest of the crew is spot-on.
4. HE's BAAAAAAACk....
When Jene Bramel was drafting Steve Smith at every turn in re-draft leagues this summer, I should have paid attention. While I kept Smith in every dynasty format, I wasn't as optimistic. Smith only trails Baltimore's target leader Dennis Pitta by two looks. It should tell you that Smith has regained his status as a viable part of this offense.
And if that doesn't convince you, the fact that Smith is talking smack to young players again should tell you a lot about how he's feeling. Smith may have always been a talker but from what I can recall, he's only talked when he could back it up.
Bloom's Sleeper's:
Steve Smith (vs OAK) - Smith has his swag back, which is bad news for opponents. This year, Oakland’s corners have already given up five touchdowns to wide receivers, and that was with one game zero WR touchdown game against exotic smashmouth last week. Smith has been looking better by the week, and the Ravens running game is still stalling out, so Joe Flacco should throw a ton against Oakland, with a good share going to Smith.
Ari Ingel's The Docket:
- Steve Smith – He leads the team in targets and actually started to look like his old self last week, breaking off a couple of nice yards after the catch. He caught 8 of 11 targets last week and Raiders giving up a ton of yards to the position.
My Advice: I've been telling you about the Silver and Black Welcome Mat for at least two weeks. Smith is entering some of my starting lineups again. I also have optimism that Terrence West will have a good RB3 day for fantasy owners because of that weak right side of the Raiders' front.
5. Crowder Coronation?
Justin Howe's Short Yardage Outlooks is a good read. I wish he'd name it the Dark Zone, because that's what he's labeling the area inside the opposing team's 10-yard line and it's essentially the area he's exploring.
Jamison Crowder is a significant player in this week's piece:
Crowder isn’t just Washington’s most targeted receiver thus far. He’s also the clear leader in dark zone targets, with four – as many as Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson, and Pierre Garcon combined. Crowder really breaks the red zone mold, at 5’8” and 174 pounds but with quickness the team likes to exploit on short slants near the goal line. He’s yet to score from there, but nor has any other Washington receiver, so there’s some serious positive regression coming. Consider that three of Crowder’s four dark zone looks have come from inside the 4-yard line. Crowder looks almost certain to find the end zone soon.
It really is mind-boggling as to how Cousins has already thrown 12 dark zone balls and not one has scored. Again, some progression toward the mean has to be in store. If and when the floodgates open, Cousins will post strong yet cheap DFS lines that reward the contrarian picks. Given his Sunday matchup with a poor Browns defense, this could be his week.
James Brimacombe also discusses Crowder in his weekly feature The Other Stack:
Jamison Crowder has played an average of 46 snaps a game this season on offense and over three games he has been targeted by Kirk Cousins 25 times for a 16/175/2 stat line. That's an average of 5 catches and 58 yards with touchdowns in 2 of 3 games. Not bad for an under priced and under the radar type of player against a Cleveland Browns team that just gave up a 7/120/1 stat line to Jarvis Landry who plays a similar role as Crowder.
Sigmund Bloom and Ryan Hester have also noted Landry and Jordan Matthews (7-114-1) as players with similar roles who have damaged Cleveland this year.
My Advice: When I studied Crowder at Duke, I saw a player whose performances consistently seemed inches and milliseconds away from what we've come to love about Steve Smith but not quite there. I don't think he'll ever get there and it makes him a good contributor, but not a starter.
What Howe is noting about the current outcomes matches my view but what he's projecting based on history of data expects a different and positive result very soon. I have no doubt Crowder will make good on some of these slants as Howe expects and I'm buying the Crowder breakout as a solid WR3.
I'll buy into WR2 upside for Crowder this year because of Josh Doctson's injuries and Pierre Garcon slowing down. But I'm not coronating Crowder as the next mighty-mite fantasy starter with a WR2 baseline.