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These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
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Best Picture
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Lionsgate)
Moonlight (A24)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Fences (Paramount)
Silence (Paramount)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films) [pictured above]
Sully (Warner Bros.)MAJOR THREATS
Loving (Focus Features)
The Birth of a Nation (Fox Searchlight)
The Jungle Book (Disney)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
20th Century Women (A24)
Rules Don't Apply (Fox)
Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)POSSIBILITIES
Live By Night (Warner Bros.)
Allied (Paramount)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)
Eye in the Sky (Bleecker Street)
Snowden (Open Road)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Sony)LONG SHOTS
Zootopia (Disney)
Arrival (Paramount)
Toni Erdmann (Sony Classics)
I, Daniel Blake (IFC Films)
The Lobster (A24)
Patriots Day (Lionsgate) -
Best Director
FRONTRUNNERS
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Ang Lee (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Garth Davis (Lion)MAJOR THREATS
Martin Scorsese (Silence)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Jeff Nichols (Loving)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)POSSIBILITIES
Oliver Stone (Snowden)
Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)
Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
Pablo Larrain (Jackie)LONG SHOTS
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
Robert Zemeckis (Allied) [pictured above]
David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Matt Ross (Captain Fantastic)
Stephen Frears (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) -
Best Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Tom Hanks (Sully)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden)MAJOR THREATS
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Andrew Garfield (Silence)POSSIBILITIES
Michael Keaton (The Founder)
Joe Alwyn (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk)
Matthew McConaughey (Gold)
Brad Pitt (Allied)
Miles Teller (Bleed for This) [pictured above]
Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)LONG SHOTS
Dave Johns (I, Daniel Blake) NEW
Chris Pine (Hell or High Water) NEW
Adam Driver (Paterson)
Ewan McGregor (American Pastoral)
Alden Ehrenreich (Rules Don't Apply)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals) -
Best Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women) [pictured above]
Viola Davis (Fences)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)MAJOR THREATS
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Marion Cotillard (Allied)POSSIBILITIES
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
Rachel Weisz (Denial)
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)LONG SHOTS
Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
Rebecca Hall (Christine)
Alicia Vikander (The Light Between Oceans)
Isabelle Huppert (Things to Come) -
Best Supporting Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Liam Neeson (Silence)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)MAJOR THREATS
Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply) [pictured above]
Adam Driver (Silence)POSSIBILITIES
Eddie Murphy (Mr. Church)
Timothy Spall (Denial)
Armie Hammer (The Birth of a Nation)
Billy Crudup (20th Century Women)
Andre Holland (Moonlight)LONG SHOTS
Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
David Oyelowo (Queen of Katwe)
Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This)
Mykelti Williamson (Fences)
Garrett Hedlund (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk) -
Best Supporting Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)MAJOR THREATS
Margo Martindale (The Hollars)
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
Molly Shannon (Other People) [pictured above]
Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)POSSIBILITIES
Janelle Monae (Moonlight) NEW
Elle Fanning (20th Century Women)
Jennifer Connelly (American Pastoral)
Dakota Fanning (American Pastoral)LONG SHOTS
Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
Teresa Palmer (Hacksaw Ridge)
Shailene Woodley (Snowden)
Aja Naomi King (The Birth of a Nation) -
Best Adapted Screenplay
FRONTRUNNERS
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Simon Beaufoy, Jean-Christophe Castelli)
Lion (Luke Davies)
Fences (August Wilson)
Silence (Jay Cocks)
Live By Night (Ben Affleck)MAJOR THREATS
Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder)
Snowden (Kieran Fitzgerald, Oliver Stone)
Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
Sully (Todd Komarnicki)
Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)POSSIBILITIES
Denial (David Hare)
The BFG (Melissa Mathison) [pictured above]
The Jungle Book (Justin Marks)
Arrival (Eric Heisserer)LONG SHOTS
Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
The Little Prince (Irena Brignull, Bob Persichetti)
Indignation (James Schamus)
American Pastoral (John Romano) -
Best Original Screenplay
FRONTRUNNERS
Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan) [pictured above]
Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)MAJOR THREATS
Loving (Jeff Nichols)
20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)POSSIBILITIES
The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker)
Allied (Steven Knight)
Julieta (Pedro Almodovar)
Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)LONG SHOTS
Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty)
Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)
Collateral Beauty (Allan Loeb)
Cafe Society (Woody Allen) -
Best Animated Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
Zootopia (Disney)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
Moana (Disney) [pictured above]
Finding Dory (Pixar)
My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)MAJOR THREATS
The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)
The Little Prince (Netflix)
April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
The Breadwinner (GKIDS)POSSIBILITIES
Sing (Illumination/Universal)
Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)
The Girl Without Hands (GKIDS)
Phantom Boy (GKIDS)LONG SHOTS
The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox Animation)
Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
Angry Birds (Sony Animation)
Storks (Warner Bros.) -
Best Documentary Feature
PROJECTED SHORTLIST
Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)
Life, Animated (The Orchard)
O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
13th (Netflix) [pictured above]
Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
Cameraperson (Janus Films)
The Ivory Game (Netflix)
The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
Tower (Kino Lorber)
Norman Lear: Just Another Version of You (Music Box)
Miss Sharon Jones! (Starz)
Author: The JT Leroy Story (Amazon)
Off the Rails (The Film Collaborative)
First Monday in May (Magnolia)
I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)POSSIBILITIES
Marathon: The Patriots Day Bombing (HBO Films)
Voyage of Time: The IMAX Experience (IMAX)
Tickled (Magnolia)
Amanda Knox (Netflix)
The Witness (FilmRise)
Defying the Nazis: The Sharps' War (PBS)
Audrie & Daisy (Netflix)
Zero Days (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
Mapplethorpe: Look at the Pictures (HBO Films)
The Music of Strangers (The Orchard)
De Palma (A24)
Newtown (Abramorama)
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week (Hulu)
Before the Flood (National Geographic)
Presenting Princess Shaw (Magnolia)
Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
We Are X (Drafthouse)
Sidney Lumet (TBD)
Nuts! (mTuckman Media)
Trapped (Abramorama)
Eat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words (Sony Classics)
Risk (TBD)LONG SHOTS
Into the Inferno (Netflix)
Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (Magnolia)
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (TBD)
Holy Hell (CNN)
The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography (TBD)
Justin Timberlake + The Tennessee Kids (Netflix)
California Typewriter (TBD)
Command and Control (PBS)
Do Not Resist (Vanish Films)
Kate Plays Christine (Grasshopper Film)
Chasing Trane (TBD)
Be Here Now (TBD)
Under the Gun (Lionsgate)
Harry Benson: Shoot First (Magnolia)
Everything Is Copy (HBO Films)
Nothing Left Unsaid: Gloria Vanderbilt & Anderson Cooper (HBO Films)
The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger (Icarus Films)
All Eyes and Ears (TBD) -
Best Foreign Language Film
PROJECTED SHORTLIST
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (Finland)
Elle (France) NEW
Julieta (Spain)
The Idol (Palestine) NEW
Land of Mine (Denmark) NEW [pictured above]
Ma' Rosa (Philippines) NEW
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Desierto (Mexico)MAJOR THREATS
Afterimage (Poland) NEW
Paradise (Russia) NEW
Fire at Sea (Italy) NEW
Tonio (Netherlands)
Sand Storm (Israel) NEW
The Salesman (Iran) NEW
Neruda (Chile)
Nagasaki: Memories of My Son (Japan)
From Afar (Venezuela)
My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
House of Others (Georgia)
Sieranevada (Romania)POSSIBILITIES
Call Me Thief (South Africa) NEW
Alias Maria (Colombia)
Clash (Egypt)
The Age of Shadows (South Korea)
Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe (Austria)
Tanna (Australia)
The Flower of Aleppo (Tunisia)
Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
The Ardennes (Belgium)
The Companion (Cuba)
Little Secret (Brazil)
The Distinguished Citizen (Argentina) NEWLONG SHOTS
It's Only the End of the World (Canada) NEW
Apprentice (Singapore)
Losers (Bulgaria)
Earthquake (Armenia)
On the Other Side (Croatia)
Kills on Wheels (Hungary)
Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia)
Train Driver's Diary (Serbia)
Seneca's Day (Lithuania)
Home Sweet Home (Kosovo)
The Black Hen (Nepal)
Raftan (Afghanistan) -
Best Cinematography
FRONTRUNNERS
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
Moonlight (James Laxton)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (JP Passi)MAJOR THREATS
Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
Voyage of Time: Life’s Journey (Paul Atkins) [pictured above]
The Birth of a Nation (Elliot Davis)
Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
Lion (Grieg Fraser)
Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)
The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)POSSIBILITIES
A Monster Calls (Oscar Faura)
Arrival (Bradford Young)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)
Gold (Robert Elswit)
Hidden Figures (Mandy Walker)
American Pastoral (Martin Ruhe)
Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)
Sully (Tom Stern)LONG SHOTS
Allied (Don Burgess)
Passengers (Rodrigo Prieto)
Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
Eye in the Sky (Haris Zamabarloukos)
Collateral Beauty (Maryse Alberti)
Fences (Charlotte Bruus Christiansen)
20th Century Women (Sean Porter)
Loving (Adam Stone)
The Witch (Jarin Blaschke)
The Neon Demon (Natasha Braier) -
Best Film Editing
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Tom Cross)
Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Tim Squyre)
Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
The Birth of a Nation (Steven Rosenblum)
Jackie (Sebastian Sepulveda)
Hidden Figures (Peter Teschner)POSSIBILITIES
The BFG (Michael Kahn)
Snowden (Alex Marquez, Lee Percy)
Fences (Hughes Winborne)
Sully (Blu Murray)
Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
Passengers (Maryann Brandon)LONG SHOTS
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Jabez Olssen)
The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
A Monster Calls (Jaume Marti, Bernat Vilaplana)
Arrival (Joe Walker)
Allied (Jeremiah O’Driscoll)
Loving (Julie Monroe) -
Best Costume Design
FRONTRUNNERS
Silence (Sandy Powell)
Fences (Sharen Davis)
Alice Through the Looking Glass (Colleen Atwood)
Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
Allied (Joanna Johnston)
Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
La La Land (Mary Zophres)
Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)POSSIBILITIES
The Girl on the Train (Michelle Matland, Ann Roth)
The BFG (Joanna Johnston)
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (Colleen Atwood)
The Dressmaker (Marion Boyce, Margot Wilson)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Joseph G. Aulisi)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)LONG SHOTS
20th Century Women (Joanna Johnston)
American Pastoral (Lindsay McKay)
Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
The Neon Demon (Erin Benach)
The Witch (Linda Muir)
Loving (Erin Benach) -
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
FRONTRUNNERS
Silence
A Monster Calls [pictured above]
Hidden FiguresMAJOR THREATS
Jackie
The BFG
Hacksaw Ridge
Deadpool
Bleed for This
Snowden
Star Trek BeyondPOSSIBILITIES
Live By Night
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Fences
Suicide Squad
Rules Don't ApplyLONG SHOTS
La La Land
Love & Friendship
Passengers
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Florence Foster Jenkins
Captain America: Civil War
The Witch -
Best Original Score
FRONTRUNNERS
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Mychael Danna, Jeff Danna) [pictured above]
Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer)
La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
The BFG (John Williams)
Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)MAJOR THREATS
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
Manchester by the Sea (Lesley Barber)
The Birth of a Nation (Henry Jackman)
Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
Jackie (Micachu)
Passengers (Thomas Newman)
Fences (Marcelo Zarvos)
Denial (Howard Shore)POSSIBILITIES
Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
Live By Night (Harry Gregson-Williams)
Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
The Girl on the Train (Danny Elfman)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
Allied (Alan Silvestri)
Arrival (Johann Johannson)
American Pastoral (Alexandre Desplat)LONG SHOTS
Queen of Katwe (Alex Heffes)
The Jungle Book (John Debney)
Snowden (Craig Armstrong, Adam Peters)
Loving (David Wingo)
Nocturnal Animals (Abel Korzeniowski)
The Neon Demon (Cliff Martinez)
The Little Prince (Richard Harvey, Hans Zimmer)
The Light Between Oceans (Alexandre Desplat) -
Best Original Song
FRONTRUNNERS
"Audition" (La La Land) — Emma Stone
"City of Stars" (La La Land) — Ryan Gosling
"Letters to the Free" (13th) — Common NEW
"Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po) — Burt Bacharach
"We Know the Way" (Moana) — Lin Manuel MirandaMAJOR THREATS
"Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls) — Justin Timberlake [pictured above]
"A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood) — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross NEW
"Victory" (Hidden Figures) — Pharrell Williams
"Start a Fire" (La La Land) — John Legend
"Go Now" (Sing Street) — Adam Levine
"Running" (Hidden Figures) — Pharrell Williams
"Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress) — SiaPOSSIBILITIES
"Try Everything" (Zootopia) — Shakira
"Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply) — Lorraine Feather
"Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy) — Tori Amos
"Set It Free" (Sing) — Scarlett Johansson
"Hoping and Healing" (Gleason) — Mike McCready
"I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones) — Sharon Jones NEW
"The Veil" (Snowden) — Peter GabrielLONG SHOTS
"Friends" (Angry Birds Movie) — Blake Shelton
"The Empty Chair" (The James Foley Story) — J. Ralph, Sting
"Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass) — Pink
"I'm So Humble" (Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping) — Adam Levine
"No Man's Land" (Citizen Soldier) — Joe Walsh
"Waving Goodbye" (The Neon Demon) — Sia
"The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party) — Alan Menken, Chris Lennertz -
Best Production Design
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (David Wasco) [pictured above]
Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)MAJOR THREATS
Allied (Gary Freeman)
The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)
The BFG (Rick Carter)
Alice Through the Looking Glass (Dan Hennah)
A Monster Calls (Eugenio Caballero)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (Gavin Boxquet)POSSIBILITIES
Live By Night (Jess Gonchor)
The Birth of a Nation (Geoffrey Kirkland)
Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)
Love & Friendship (Anna Rackard)
Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
Fences (David Gropman)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)LONG SHOTS
Gold (Maria Djurkovic)
The Neon Demon (Elliott Hostetter)
20th Century Women (Chris Jones)
Loving (Chad Keith)
Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor)
Cafe Society (Santo Loquasto)
The Little Prince (Celine Desrumaux, Lou Romano) -
Best Sound Editing
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
PassengersMAJOR THREATS
Sully [pictured above]
Deepwater Horizon
Allied
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Patriots DayPOSSIBILITIES
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deadpool
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
The BFGLONG SHOTS
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne
Independence Day: Resurgence
X-Men: Apocalypse -
Best Sound Mixing
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
PassengersMAJOR THREATS
Sully
Deepwater Horizon
Allied
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi [pictured above]
Patriots DayPOSSIBILITIES
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deadpool
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
The BFGLONG SHOTS
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne
Independence Day: Resurgence
X-Men: Apocalypse -
Best Visual Effects
FRONTRUNNERS
The Jungle Book
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
A Monster Calls
Passengers [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Star Trek Beyond
Deadpool
The BFG
Deepwater Horizon
Sully
10 Cloverfield LanePOSSIBILITIES
Arrival
Jason Bourne
Captain America: Civil War
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
Suicide SquadLONG SHOTS
Alice Through the Looking Glass
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
X-Men: Apocalypse
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