The UK cannot leave the EU customs union without HMRC and the Border Force employing thousands more customs staff. Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

One way or another, Brexit will bump up the size of the state

Contrary to what many libertarian Leavers believe, ‘taking back control’ of the UK’s borders will have to mean bigger, not smaller, government

Thu 29 Sep 2016 01.34 EDT

Brexit is good news for consultants. Their pay this summer is up 9% in a year, as companies demand more handholding and strategic advice. And viewed purely as a job opportunity, there is cheer, too, for parts of the public sector after the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, with tens of millions of pounds needing to be spent on additional civil servants

The UK cannot leave the EU customs union without HMRC and Border Force employing thousands more – at least 5,000 more customs staff, according to consultancy KPMG. There is, despite what some technology-utopians say, no IT fix; you can’t leave companies to self regulate and choose whether or not to declare goods subject to duty.

As for control of people, tighter migration policy doesn’t just mean more booths at Heathrow. It also requires more command of emigration, more staff to round up overstayers and illegals and closer checks on who leaves the UK.

And that’s before any of the social policy implications of Brexit are taken into account. Leave aside campaign lies about extra funding for the NHS, there are plenty of Tory MPs who would vote to boost public services employment in areas where migration has been significant in recent years. It’s up to chancellor Philip Hammond and his autumn statement whether they will get the chance this year. But sooner or later, Brexit must bump up the size of the state.

The thinktank British Future says today’s £28 annual spend per person on managing migration will have to rise, if the status of the UK’s 3.5 million EU nationals is to be sorted out and the borders made more secure. Border Force staffing has risen since this division of the Home Office was created in 2012. But only a few months ago, on these pages, Lucy Moreton of the ISU, the union for borders, immigration and customs, complained about poor morale and intolerable pressure on her members, especially in Dover and Calais and at Heathrow. The UK has 5,000 customs staff and Border Force has 8,000: a very lean operation by international standards. The Home Office will have to recruit.

That’s pretty much what Mark Harper, former immigration minister, told an audience at the Institute for Government. Brexit has to mean more bodies. Administering work permits is going to be complicated under whatever system emerges, and will bring a lot more intervention in firms’ recruitment schemes. Some say policy logic leads back to where former home secretary David Blunkett found himself 12 years ago, introducing identity cards – at a cost then of up to £3.1bn.

Theresa May’s line when she was at the Home Office was that visa charges ought to cover the cost of immigration and border control. But today’s gap – income from visas at £1.3bn and spending at £1.8bn – can now only grow.

Also, migration control is likely to bring more work for the police. That might be impossible with today’s staffing levels: police numbers have been cut by 14% since 2010.

Some Leavers were libertarians, claiming that emancipation from the EU would see government further reduced. That’s the position adopted by Liam Fox and David Davies. It’s now plain that “taking back control” – of borders and customs – brings bigger not smaller government.

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