NFL teams
Dan Graziano, senior NFL national reporter 8y

Rating each NFL team's confidence in QB situations

NFL

Everybody has a quarterback, but not everybody feels all that great about it. There aren't enough franchise quarterbacks to go around in the NFL, and there sure as heck aren't enough reliable backups. So while each of the 32 teams starts the season with high hopes, many of them know the answer to the question at their most important position likely won't turn out to be the one they have right now.

With that in mind, we ranked the NFL's 32 teams according to how much confidence they have in their overall quarterback situation -- not just their starter -- to begin the 2016 season.


1. Green Bay Packers

QB Confidence Index: 9.8

Aaron Rodgers is the best there is, and his favorite target is returning. After a year playing backup for QB Jedi Mike McCarthy, Brett Hundley likely could acquit himself pretty well if anything were to happen to Rodgers. The Pack secured the top QB confidence spot once Tom Brady opted to serve his suspension.

2. New England Patriots

QB Confidence Index: 9.6

Jimmy Garoppolo was ready to go a year ago. He can keep the Jet Ski upright until Brady returns in Week 5. If Brady had been playing all 16, the Patriots might have been a 10.0. Come Week 5, the confidence index will soar.

3. Carolina Panthers

QB Confidence Index: 9.3

Well, they do have the reigning league MVP, and he gets his best receiver (Kelvin Benjamin) back after not having had him last season because of a knee injury. Cam Newton has missed two games in five years, and backup Derek Anderson won them both.

4. Seattle Seahawks

QB Confidence Index: 9.1

Russell Wilson is always underrated, but his 2015 passer rating was 132.8 over the final seven games, largely without Jimmy Graham and Marshawn Lynch. If Tarvaris Jackson were still the backup instead of Trevone Boykin, Seattle might rank even higher.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

QB Confidence Index: 9.1

Ben Roethlisberger's completion percentage was up in each of the past five years, to 68.0 in 2015. When he's healthy, Pittsburgh's confidence is Ricky Bobby thinking he can live to age 245; if Landry Jones is starting, it's Ricky Bobby sticking a knife in his leg to prove he can't walk.

6. Arizona Cardinals

QB Confidence Index: 8.6

When Carson Palmer starts, the Cardinals are 20-4, counting playoffs, the past two seasons. When he doesn't, they're 5-6. Still, the Cards have confidence in backup Drew Stanton.

7. New Orleans Saints

QB Confidence Index: 8.5

Drew Brees' passing yardage total last season was his lowest since 2010 but was still a league-leading 4,870 yards. At 37, he probably has a couple more years of high-end production.

8. Cincinnati Bengals

QB Confidence Index: 8.3

Andy Dalton was on track for 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns before he got hurt in December. Backup AJ McCarron acquitted himself well in relief. So the Bengals are looking good at QB -- unless it was all some Hue Jackson magic trick.

9. San Diego Chargers

QB Confidence Index: 8.2

Philip Rivers hasn't missed a game since taking over for Brees in 2006. No one threw or completed more passes last season. There are plenty of questions about the group around him, but Rivers is a known quantity in San Diego.

10. New York Giants

QB Confidence Index: 8.2

Eli Manning hasn't missed a game since taking over for Kurt Warner as the Giants' starter in 2004. The past two seasons have been two of his best statistically. Plenty of questions surround the group around him, but the Giants know exactly what they have in Manning.

11. Atlanta Falcons

QB Confidence Index: 8.1

Matt Ryan doesn't miss games, but something seems amiss in Atlanta. Last year's Falcons had the league's top receiver and its seventh-leading rusher, and somehow Ryan came up with only 21 touchdowns against 16 interceptions. Matt Schaub waits in the wings.

12. Chicago Bears

QB Confidence Index: 7.8

What? Are we sure about a confidence rating this high with exciting-as-rye-toast Jay Cutler still under center? His underwhelming career includes one 4,000-yard season ... eight years ago. But the Bears get a bump because Brian Hoyer might be the league's best backup.

13. Indianapolis Colts

QB Confidence Index: 7.8

The richest contract in NFL history screams confidence, but Andrew Luck is coming off injury, and veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck has been replaced by Scott Tolzien. No problem if Luck can stay healthy and get that 58.1 career completion percentage up. Until he does, we'll leave the Colts here.

14. Baltimore Ravens

QB Confidence Index: 6.9

Hey, remember Joe Flacco's 2012 playoff run to the Super Bowl? His performance since then hasn't been the same. And did you know he has never passed for 4,000 yards? The Ravens were 2-4 without him last season but only 3-7 with him.

15. Detroit Lions

QB Confidence Index: 6.4

Did you know Matthew Stafford's completion percentage last season was a career-high 67.2? That was with Megatron, who is now gone. With veteran Dan Orlovsky backing up, it's now a middling situation.

16. Oakland Raiders

QB Confidence Index: 6.3

In the up-and-comers category, Derek Carr is as hot a young QB as this league has. The gains he made in his second year, as well as his four fourth-quarter comebacks, have inflated the Raiders' confidence in the 25-year-old.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

QB Confidence Index: 6.1

Fun fact: Blake Bortles' backup is still 31-year-old Chad Henne. (We know, right?) Bortles has weapons all around him but has to bring down the interceptions (35 in two years).

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB Confidence Index: 5.3

It's hard to be confident in any player after one year, but Jameis Winston was everything the Bucs could have hoped for in a rookie. There's no reason he can't build on it. Backup Mike Glennon has 18 starts, making this situation as solid as any other built around young guys.

19. Miami Dolphins

QB Confidence Index: 5.1

Coach Adam Gase coaxed a steady, productive, drama-free year out of Cutler in Chicago last season, so his confidence should be sky-high. Backup Matt Moore is fine, but it's tough for anyone to be confident in Ryan Tannehill, who failed to finish above .500 in any of his first four NFL seasons.

20. Washington Redskins

QB Confidence Index: 5.1

Nothing against Kirk Cousins in 2015, but he did it in the NFC East, and if Washington were truly confident, it would have talked contract instead of slapping a franchise tag on him. He's 11-14 as a starter, and his backup is Colt McCoy. This could fall apart in a hurry.

21. Kansas City Chiefs

QB Confidence Index: 5.1

With Alex Smith, you're getting confidence when it comes to avoiding turnovers (no more than seven INTs in a season since 2010). On the flip side, he has had 20 or more TD passes only twice.

22. Minnesota Vikings

QB Confidence Index: 4.5

From Teddy Bridgewater to Shaun Hill to Sam Bradford in the span of a week, not much has really changed with this one. Bridgewater was just 21st in the league in pass attempts while starting all 16 games last season. Having Peterson makes quarterback confidence less critical, and Bradford's primary job will be to run the offense through the run game and maybe hit a couple of play-action deep shots up the field.

23. Buffalo Bills

QB Confidence Index: 4.5

No one is confident of anything in Buffalo. Tyrod Taylor is a bit like Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater in that little was asked of him in 2015. His 20 touchdowns and six interceptions indicate the Bills could ask more. Will they? And if he goes down, it's unclear whether EJ Manuel has any tricks left.

24. Tennessee Titans

QB Confidence Index: 4.4

The entire league feels confident that Marcus Mariota will be great, but the Titans seem so far away in all other areas that you wonder how he'll hold up. Tennessee could move quickly up this list if some questions around Mariota -- at wide receiver and O-line -- get answered early.

25. Houston Texans

QB Confidence Index: 4.1

Any confidence we have in Brock Osweiler stems from the fact that coach Bill O'Brien started four different quarterbacks last season and made the playoffs. Osweiler took 23 sacks in his eight games with Denver, so he'll feel right at home if the Texans' line can't protect him.

26. New York Jets

QB Confidence Index: 3.9

Ryan Fitzpatrick's return helps the Jets. But how can we think the Jets have any confidence in him after holding firm for so long on an offer that was half of Osweiler's salary?

27. Philadelphia Eagles

QB Confidence Index: 3.8

It appears they will go with the rookie out of North Dakota State to start the season. Carson Wentz almost certainly isn't ready for this, which means there will be some ugly moments. But Chase Daniel is in Philadelphia because coach Doug Pederson knows he knows the offense. If things fall apart for the rookie, there is a reasonable safety net in place. But the Eagles are clearly in rebuild, and they'd better be confident they won't wreck Wentz by playing him before he's ready.

28. San Francisco 49ers

QB Confidence Index: 3.6

Blaine Gabbert has beaten out social activist Colin Kaepernick for the starting job, but there's been little indication of long-term confidence in this arrangement. It's possible Kaepernick could start a few games before it's over. It's still possible he could end up getting cut. Regardless, Kelly has tremendous confidence in Kelly after coaching the likes of Nick Foles and Sam Bradford to strong seasons in Philadelphia.

29. Denver Broncos

QB Confidence Index: 3.3

All Mark Sanchez had to do was hold off seventh-round pick Trevor Siemian. He couldn't. As a result, the champs will ask Siemian not to steer their repeat train into a ditch while the defense carries them and Paxton Lynch gets ready.

30. Dallas Cowboys

QB Confidence Index: 2.7

The Cowboys would be really freaked out about Tony Romo's injury if Dak Prescott hadn't had so much success in the preseason. Coaches think he'll do fine, but they can't be that confident.

31. Los Angeles Rams

QB Confidence Index: 1.9

Until top pick Jared Goff is ready, it's Case Keenum, who has 15 career NFL starts and wasn't invited back to Houston last year. The Rams will take as much time as Goff needs, but they're hoping it's not much.

32. Cleveland Browns

QB Confidence Index: 0.8

This is easily the NFL's worst QB situation. Robert Griffin III hasn't seen the field since 2014, when his QBR was 33.5. Josh McCown is a good bet to start more games, as is Cody Kessler.

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