There's more at stake in the $1.25 million 2016 Travers Stakes at Saratoga this Saturday than just the money for the fourteen three-year-olds, although the million-plus purse–and the many more millions that will be wagered–does mean something for all the horses, their owners, trainers, and jockeys. Much more so than the Belmont, the Travers functions as the sort of high-school valedictory exercise for the three-year-old stars, before they go meet the big boys in the Breeders' Cup in California this November–which, this year, if they make it, is when Exaggerator, Nyquist, and company must face the dread five-year-old California Chrome, the baddest, richest and racing-est stallion in the world right this minute, with $12.6 million in winnings. To date. For this year's crop of three-year-olds entering that race, this November in California will be like meeting Schwarzenegger's Terminator and Usain Bolt rolled into one giant nightmare in a $6-million race on a track with many other real grown-ups out to slaughter 'em.
Which does not make this Saturday's Travers a cakewalk, but a few things have happened in the last few weeks of runup to the race that have influenced, and will influence, the weekend's field and its performance. First, our beloved Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist has, according to his trainer Doug O'Neill, literally “ shot up a couple of inches,” in other words, has suffered a growth spurt since his loss to Exaggerator in the Haskell at Monmouth last month, and has been moved to a California swimming facility for a couple of weeks of … well, swimming and the California life. We hope he's having some good burritos and catching some good surfing out that way. His team's idea was to keep him going without putting a saddle or a rider on him, in other words, to create no stress on the bones. He will not race this weekend.
As for Exaggerator, the Saratoga morning line favorite at 3-1 and starting from post postion 7 on Saturday, despite his heart-stopping power and winning sureness in the Santa Anita, the Preakness, and the Haskell, many horsemen in the barns and on the backstretch have questions about the athlete. The questions all boil down to this: his three Grade 1 wins, all of which were uplifting and very fine, have been in the mud. We've known all along that Exaggerator is a sort of equine four-wheel-drive vehicle – which is not to say he's a monster truck, but nearly so. If Waterloo were on and you had to charge Bonaparte's lines five or six times a day, you'd definitely want Exaggerator as your war horse.
Unfortunately, the weather does not seem to be cooperating with the Desormeaux brothers or Exaggerator this weekend in Saratoga – it's beautiful today, and Saturday is supposed to produce a dry track.
Then there's the large field, with a passel of lightly-raced newcomers who may function as speed, or who may be real badass spoilers, or may be both, or none of the above. To help us tap our way through this maze and give us some deep horseman insight into the chatter, we call again on the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, whose inside-racing vision has been such a gift to us all through this Triple Crown season and beyond.
But first, let's go to the draw, here in order of post position, and Saratoga's morning line odds:
- Arrogate 10/1
- American Freedom 6/1
- My Man Sam 20/1
- Governor Malibu 12/1
- Forever d'Oro 30/1
- Anaximandros 15/1
- Exaggerator 3/1
- Destin 10/1
- Gift Box 12/1
- Connect 4/1
- Majesto 30/1
- Creator 15/1
- Laoban 15/1
- Gun Runner 20/1
Let's jump the queue to Exaggerator and his dislike of a dry track. At the moment, Saratoga's got a partly cloudy Saturday forecast, with no rain on the horizon between now and then.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: The track is the story for Exaggerator. We know he has plenty of talent. But he won in April at Santa Anita in the mud, which was freaky by the way, mud in the middle of the desert. Then he won the Preakness and the Haskell. Three Grade Ones, all in the mud, all in different parts of the country, what are the odds of that in one season? He didn't like the Derby, and he really didn't like Belmont, which were on dry tracks, so that raises a question about the horse, and what his feet like. We're not gonna know until he tells us.
Give me a break! He won the Preakness and the Haskell, and with power.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: I know people who are racing against him who saw his work at Saratoga before the Jim Dandy in July, before they shipped him down to the Haskell, and that work wasn't just 'not good.' It was terrible. Then they ship him to Monmouth, to the Haskell and the weather forecast came up in their favor and they were jubilant. Desormeaux wasn't even at that race, he was at Delmar, which makes me think they thought he was not even gonna win that race. Until it rained. So the $64,000 question with Exaggerator is, can he show now, this weekend, that he can win on a fast dirt track. There's no way around it for him. Will he like the surface at Saratoga? He didn't in July. So, can he win on that?
Let's move into some of the stars we know in the rest of the field.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Destin will run well for Pletcher, he always does. Destin doesn't necessarily win, but he's always there in the mix, which is to say, he can get in the way and hold it and wreck it. Governor Malibu should run well. Don’t have a feel just yet about who could be a spoiler, but I have to think that the Chad Brown horses are going to make some noise. Chad's hot right now, he's known for racing more on turf than on dirt, but he's doing well during this meeting at Saratoga. He's got three in the race. Any of them. Gift Box, My Man Sam or Connect would be horses to watch. This would be a big dirt win for him.
Saratoga's track is of normal width, but the field is big. Somebody's gonna have a good enough trip to win, but many more somebodies are not gonna have a good trip. Let's talk post positions.
Bluegrass Wise Man: Remember that the Travers is a 1 ¼ mile, so everybody is simply going to want to get in the position they like. That said, outside is not a good draw this Saturday. Inside may not be great either, but I would not want to be outside like Gun Runner is. As in any race, if you draw the inside, you better have speed to get a good position. If you don't have speed, you may get buried in the back and on the rail. Same for the outside. If you are a speed horse, you are going to have fight for your spot. There are no real advantages or disadvantages from the middle. You are not going to want to be too wide going to that first turn, nor are you gonna want to be buried along the rail in traffic.
Given the draw, that's fairly scary. You're good at scaring us, so hit us with your best shot right now.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™ : Little early in the week to say anything about where the money's headed, but let's just say that Exaggerator's owners and the Desormeaux brothers will be praying for rain.
