Breeders’ Cup Distaff 2016 should be a Classic

Breeders’ Cup Distaff 2016 should be a Classic
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

While the cream of the crop of older dirt females east of the Mississippi are set to battle it out in Saturday’s Grade 1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga, it occurs to me that even an impressive victory would only set up the winner as the fourth choice for the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. No offense intended to such top mares as Cavorting, Curalina, Forever Unbridled, I’m A Chatterbox, and Paid Up Subscriber, but that’s how good the big three are. Each champions already, Beholder, Songbird, and Stellar Wind all look to be in top form, ten weeks away from what is shaping up to be a classic edition of the Distaff.

Beholder is rightfully the Queen B. The six-year-old daughter of Henny Hughes has been a marvel of consistency and excellence for five consecutive seasons. Trained by the Hall of Famer, Richard Mandella, Beholder is currently in unchartered territory, though, coming off two straight losses for the first time in her magnificent career. Is it a sign that the Spendthrift Farm mare is finally starting to slow down? Not a chance, Lance. In her most recent race, she finished second in last Saturday’s Pacific Classic against the boys. Behind only the world’s richest horse, California Chrome, Beholder easily defeated a slew of good older males, including Dortmund and Hoppertunity. Not only was it a typical Beholder performance, but the fact that she did so well at the classic distance of ten furlongs demonstrates to me that she is very fit, and still oozing with class.

As for her prospects in the Distaff, Beholder has already won twice at the Breeders’ Cup, in 2012 and 2013. Unfortunately, she was forced to miss the World Championships the past two autumns due to illness, otherwise who knows how impressive her Breeders’ Cup tally may be. She has enough speed to take the race to Songbird early, and enough class to brace for the challenge of Stellar Wind late. Throw in her record at Santa Anita of: 14-13-1-0, and where she has already won both of her BC races, and you can see why I still rate the three-time Eclipse Award Champion as still the one to beat come November.

Speaking of flashy records, Songbird is simply perfection. Since the afternoon she first broke from the starting gate, none of her peers have been able to come close to the running machine that is Songbird. The Fox Hill Farm superstar made it ten races, ten majestic victories, with another dazzler in Saturday’s Alabama. She has done it in California, Kentucky, and New York. She has realistically already clinched her second championship. While it is true that she seemingly has run out of serious competition among her division, you cannot argue the fact that she has run in all the big races for three-year-old fillies in which she was able. Eventually, she will step outside of her division to face the test of older horses or males. Happily, all signs point to that happening in this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

There can be little doubt that Songbird is one of the more special young fillies we have seen in a long time, but on what level of greatness she will ultimately be judged can only come when she faces the best. Beholder and Stellar Wind should provide just the sort of challenge for her to prove just how special she is. Generally, top older horses take the measure of their younger counterparts. Seattle Slew did it to Affirmed, and Affirmed in turn did it to Spectacular Bid. Every once in a while, though, the great three-year-old can step up and dethrone their older and excellent competition. Is Songbird such a horse? She may be. I, for one, cannot wait to find out.

Stellar Wind might not get the press of the two above her, but I’m convinced that the John Sadler trained four-year-old filly will be a force to be reckoned with on November 4. She may lack the longevity of Beholder, and the domination of her peers enjoyed by Songbird, but Stellar Wind has also been a model of consistency in her career. In fact, since finishing third in her career debut at Laurel in November of 2015, the Virginia-bred daughter of Curlin has run big every time. She has won six of those nine starts, with two seconds, and with a little racing luck that record would be even brighter. Her last five wins have come in graded stakes, none of which were bigger than her most recent start. A heavy underdog against Beholder in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch, the 3yo Champion of 2015 and Victor Espinoza aggressively went after the great champion the entire race, before powering on by. It was a career defining win by the Hronis Racing charge, but likely not her last.

This year’s Distaff will not be Stellar Wind’s first try in the race. Few would argue that she deserved better than second in last year’s edition. Not only was her losing margin narrow, but she was certainly hampered by a series of bumps handed her in the stretch by race winner, Stopchargingmaria. Now, as a more mature older horse, and with the Breeders’ Cup at her backyard in Santa Anita, you would have to like her chances to run even bigger this time around. She is now enjoying a little rest with the goal of having her at her best for the big one. Will it all be good enough to defeat the likes of Beholder and Songbird? Take her lightly at your own risk.

I’m looking forward to Saturday’s Personal Ensign as part of a great racing card at Saratoga. It looks to be an excellent, competitive race, but moving forward, the Breeders’ Cup Distaff is the one in which I am truly excited. Three horses from California, each champions, and all three looking to arrive at the big race in tip-top form after one final prep. November 4 cannot get here fast enough!


Meet Brian Zipse

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat, Forego, and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, American Pharoah and Justify. Before coming to HRN, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. His racing partnership venture, Derby Day Racing, invites more fans to experience the thrill of racehorse ownership.

The Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, Brian authored a daily column as Zipse at the Track, created the popular racing webcast HorseCenter, and added his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Now a Senior Writer for HRN, Brian continues to contribute his thoughts on racing, as well as hosting HorseCenter. A big supporter of thoroughbred aftercare, he serves on the Board of The Exceller Fund.

Brian's work has also been published on several leading industry sites. He has consulted for leading contest site Derby Wars and is a Vox Populi committee member. He is a voter for racing's Hall of Fame, as well as a weekly NTRA poll voter. 

A horse owner and graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives just outside of Louisville with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra.

 
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