Poll shows 'free-for-all' GOP gubernatorial race a week before voting

WASHINGTON — Missouri’s Republican primary for governor is a “free-for-all” contest, a new poll shows, with the four GOP candidates still bunched together even as the Aug. 2 election looms.

If any candidate has momentum, it’s former state House Speaker Catherine Hanaway, according to the poll, conducted by OnMessage Inc., a Republican firm based in the Washington area.

OnMessage does not represent any of the gubernatorial candidates, but is working for Josh Hawley, a Republican running for attorney general. The poll, of 500 likely GOP primary voters, was taken July 17-18.

Hanaway led the pack but just barely, with 25 percent of respondents saying they support her. John Brunner, the millionaire businessman from St. Louis, won 23 percent; Eric Greitens, the former Navy SEAL and political neophyte, came in at 21 percent; and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder snagged 19 percent.

“It’s basically ... a four-way tie,” said Wes Anderson, who conducted the poll for OnMessage. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.38 percent.

But, he added, Hanaway has gained ground among two key segments. First, 26 percent of voters who describe themselves as “very conservative” said they support Hanaway, an uptick from the firm’s July 7 poll.  She is now tied with Brunner among that constituency, which generally represents about half of Missouri’s GOP primary electorate.

Hanaway also gained support in the St. Louis and Kansas City media markets, the poll shows.

“That’s not a bad place to be picking up speed if you are in a statewide primary,” Anderson said. “You have everyone else fighting over the rest of the state.”

In the Springfield area, however, Hanaway is trailing the other candidates at 16 percent. Brunner performs best in the region, winning 30 percent support, compared to 25 percent for Greitens and 20 percent for Kinder.

With a week to go before voters head to the polls, Anderson said it’s not clear if Hanaway can build on her momentum — or if late-breaking developments will shift the contest in another direction.

“Hanaway is showing signs of momentum, but it’s still too close to call," Anderson said. "The race is up for grabs and anyone could win."

In crowded governor's race, GOP contenders woo Springfield voters