Pokémon Going Going Gone?

Pokémon Going Going Gone?

Pokémon Go is over. It's been a massive success. For a brief moment in time it had more users than all other games combined 

Unfortunately this is no longer the case.  

Looking at Superfly Insights data the game is still adding users to its base of paying customers.  

But the growth rate of all metrics - users, revenue and transactions - is now negative and crashing.

 

According to a TechCrunch piece from August 7th 2016 (yesterday), Niantic's light is still shining bright: "the biggest Asian markets still aren’t live for Pokémon Go: Korea, India and China still have yet to come online. Those should help Niantic extend its revenue winning streak." 

Don't hold your breath. According to Superfly Insights data paying users in international markets where Pokémon Go has already launched - including India and Japan - are closely mimicking the behavior of domestic paying customers.

The last 7 days have been absolutely abysmal for all major international markets. Pokémon Go is gone. It's been one hell of a ride. 

Superfly Insights covers hundreds of public and private companies.  For more valuable insights on revenue projections, user growth, attrition, in-app product mix, please sign up at insights.superfly.com 

UPDATE #1:

Thanks for all the likes, comments and shares. This post received over 25K views in the first 24 hours. I'm not sure if this is a lot but my last post about Uber China merger with Didi received only 2000 views.  

There are some great insights in the comments sections below. Not everyone agrees with our assessment, some argued that it is too early to tell, and that future updates may still turn the tide.


UPDATE #2:

Wow! 425 shares and over 100K views in 48 hours!

Following up on some of the comments:

1) We have nothing personal against Pokemon, Nintendo in general or the Niantic team - in fact many of our employees love playing the game.

2) Of course Pokemon Go is still generating significant revenue for its publisher, and will most likely continue being a top revenue generating app for months to come. We simply pointed out that the number of paying customers has dropped significantly and this behaviour is consistent across all countries.  

3) Yes the goal of the post was to get people to sign up to our newsletter and demo.

UPDATE #3:

1) There were a bunch of questions regarding the timing of our data. Readers suggested that it was premature and that new releases might change the tide.  Our data is showing that as of August 23rd the trend hasn't changed. The rate of decline is slowing but the numbers are still pointing down.

2) Many people that have never spent money on the app were curious to learn what were people actually buying.  Here is the breakdown over time of the in-app transactions. All in-app digital currency sales are on the decline but the 100 PokeCoins are the most popular item.

But the highest grossing product is by far the 1200 PokeCoins. Responsible for over 31% of total revenue.  

 

Superfly Insights covers hundreds of public and private companies.  For more valuable insights on revenue projections, user growth, attrition, in-app product mix, please sign up at insights.superfly.com 

Notes:

(1) Superfly Insights has a panel of 2.5M users. 25% domestic, 75% international.

(2) The Pokémon Go panel contains 20K paying customers.  

Steven Petrovich

Operations and Sourcing Consultant

7y

What a waste of human endeavor Flash in the pan

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Craig Ostrander, M.B.A., CSM

Scrum Master - Senior Producer at PlayStation

7y

kids must be back in school...

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