How the UK economy will THRIVE outside EU – and we’ll earn MORE

Higher wages, output growth and lower unemployment would be among the financial benefits of voting out of the bloc, independent analysis by the experts shows.
The economy’s competitiveness would jump by five per cent if outside the EU, while prices would decrease and boost GDP.

Economists for Brexit also highlight Britain overall gives more money to the EU than it gets back, and says the money could be used more efficiently elsewhere.

Much has been made over trade deals post-Brexit, but the group's research shows why the UK does not need a deal.

Under the rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Britain can carry on trading with EU countries in the same way the US, Japan and China do.

And outside of Europe, the City of London woud retain its role as the world’s leading financial centre, according to the group formed of Dr Gerard Lyons, Professor Patrick Minford, Roger Bootle, Ryan Bourne, Professor Kent Matthews, Neil MacKinnon, Warwick Lightfoot and Professor Tim Congdon.

The research comes after the Treasury published a leaflet claiming a Brexit would harm the economy.

Professor Minford said: “The Treasury report on the financial impact of an EU exit on the UK is nothing short of a totally misleading piece of propaganda, based on almost no proper economic thought and does not stand up to any kind of scrutiny.

"In particular, the so-called analysis of possible trade options on an EU exit 'focuses mainly on evaluating two of the least preferable trade arrangements and doesn’t even do that very well.

"Its analysis of a World Trade Organisation model is deeply flawed, in that it fails to account for the benefits of falling consumer prices, rising export competitiveness, assumes absurdly high WTO barriers and makes no recognition of the benefits of removing all EU regulations. It simply churns out pessimistic GDP forecasts without any real justification.”

He added: “Walking away from the EU, not negotiating a new agreement with the EU or putting up any new trade barriers will bring about a 4 per cent gain in GDP.

"These forecasts, together with the rest our Economists for Brexit pamphlet gives a proper, independent analysis of life outside of the EU and the group believes it is our duty to present that to the voting public.”

Research by the group also found inflation and interest rates will rise by between two and three per cent, while exchange rates will fall by six per cent.

Mr Bootle said only 12 per cent of the UK’s GDP is accounted for by exports to the EU yet all of Britain is subject to its bureaucracy.

He said: “Over the last 20 years, the EU’s economic record has been very poor indeed when compared with other developed countries, not just as a result of the Euro but by a series of bad decisions which have reduced efficiency.

"Regulatory burden, misuse of EU funds and the continual absorption of political attention on EU reform matters have all contributed to poor economic performance.

"Some argue that poor EU decisions are more than made up for by the benefits of the Single Market, as if it was a door which could be opened or closed depending on EU membership status.

“The reality is that many countries sell into the Single Market without membership (the US being the largest exporter to the EU).

"This, combined with the fact that the benefits of the Single Market continue to dwindle in a global market, means the EU is a club of which the UK should not want to be a member."