Dry weather may play spoilsport for snow enthusiasts

SHIMLA: Dry weather conditions prevailing in Himachal Pradesh have made the days warm and nights cold, leaving those associated with tourism industry worried. With weather pattern changing during the last few decades, people in the state are wondering if there would be any snowfall this December.
During winters, especially during Christmas and New Year, snowfall lures tourists to hill stations of Shimla, Manali and Dharamshala.While hoteliers in the state are praying for snow and rain, according to Shimla meteorological centre Himachal Pradesh would witness dry weather conditions till November 21. Snowfall on Christmas eve has been eluding Shimla for the past two decades. It was in 1991 that the hill town of Shimla had last witnessed snowfall on Christmas eve. Himachal Pradesh, especially Shimla, has been waiting for white Christmas for last over two decades.
A study data released by the department of economics and statistics in June 2012 had shown that Himachal Pradesh had 31,757.71 sq kms of area under snow cover and change in rain and snowfall cycle was due to greenhouse gases. The report said that other major source for emitting carbon-dioxide had been vehicles, which numbered only 9,116 four decades ago and now 1,67,264.
It was in 2011 that snowfall had occurred on New Year and New Year eve in 2010 had received mild snowfall while the Shimla had observed a white Christmas last in 1991. Between the year 1901 and 1992 the mean maximum temperature of Shimla in the Month of November has remained at 14.1 degrees celsius while in December at 11.1 degrees celsius. The mean minimum temperature of Shimla in November has remained at 7 degrees celsius while in December at 4.1 degrees celsius, sources said.
The study revealed that warming rate of Shimla was higher during 1991 to 2002 as compared to earlier decades while decreasing trend in seasonal snowfall is very conspicuous since 1990 and it was lowest in 2009. About 17% decrease in rainfall in Shimla was observed from 1996 onwards, the study revealed.
Officials from the Shimla meteorological centre have predicted dry weather conditions till November 21, which means that day temperature would rise further in coming days. During winter season snowfall remains a major attraction for tourists but climate change has now changed the snow pattern. They said that Shimla's harsh winter, which normally commenced in November and ended in March, has declined after the mid-1980s. "The snowfall pattern has undergone a drastic change after 1991 with snowing days shrinking at the rate of 11 days per decade," they added.
A Kufri-based hotelier said that when there is snowfall during winter seasons average 4,500-5,500 people visit the tourist spot otherwise not more than 500-600 persons visit the place on daily basis. "Snow is a big boon for the tourism industry but climate change is slowly reducing snowing days," he added.
Shimla meteorological centre director Manmohan Singh said that dry weather conditions are prevailing in the state due to which days would continue to remain warm and nights colder. "It would be premature to comment about snowfall pattern for this winter. "Picture would become clear only after December 15," he added.
Manali Hoteliers Association president Anup Thakur said that snow is the biggest attraction for tourists and considering continuing dry weather conditions chances are bleak that Manali may get snow in the first week of December. "We are praying to the weather god to ensure snowfall before Christmas as snow is biggest attraction for tourists. We hope that in the coming days weather conditions would change for the benefit of tourism industry," he said.