It's January, and a great time to offer some thoughts on what we might see this year. What follows are my predictions for 9 things to expect in the world of search in 2015:
1. We Will See Massive Expansion of Google's Knowledge Graph: This is a one of the bigger areas of investment for Google, and they are going to keep pushing more and more new answer boxes and related search features into the search results. They are pushing steadily towards building the Star Trek computer, i.e., a computer that you can have a natural language conversation with, and it can understand you and answer your questions.
If you are not sure what I mean when I reference an "answer box", here is an example of one in response to the query "apples vs oranges":
Notice how Google answers the question you have asked directly, and shows that answer above the regular search results.
2. Google Will Acquire One or More Companies Related to Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI is integral to the Google strategic plan. Yet, the field is still very much in its early days. Google will look for companies that have developed technologies that can help them accelerate their progress. In some cases, the acquisition might be as much about hiring the people as it is about the tech they have developed so far.
3. Mobile Search Will Become a Confirmed Ranking Factor: On November 18th, Google let it be known that they are experimenting with mobile friendliness as a ranking factor. I believe that they will make this permanent, and that Google will set this up as something that impacts the rankings users see only when they are on a mobile device. In other words, your site might rank differently for mobile searches than it will for desktop searches.
Currently, if you are able to get a mobile friendly designation using this tool, you will get the rankings boost. You will also get a "Mobile-friendly" label added to the search results for your site when someone searches for it on a mobile device:
In addition, I predict that they will turn up the significance of this factor. As early as March of 2014, Google was saying that mobile search volumes would start to exceed desktop search volumes before the end of 2014. That's a big deal, and Google is going to place a tremendous amount of emphasis on this.
As a bonus element to this prediction, I also believe you will see the needs of the mobile device UI dictate the overall UI (including that for desktop searches). Google is always looking towards the future, and they believe the future is mobile.
4. Google+ Will Not Die: I am sure this one reads a bit oddly, but the reality is that there are tons of search industry media that keep writing articles about Google+ dying. It's the social platform that the tech media loves to hate, and to be fair, it's not a runaway success.
But, sadly for those media people, Google is going to continue to invest in this platform. No doubt that it has a long way to go to be what Google wants it to be, but they do make money on it. How you ask? It drives a great deal of personalization in the search results, allowing them to serve better results and more targeted ads, and this increases ad click-through rate.
It's also a source of data on people, and for this reason, succeeding in social is just way too important for Google.
5. Google Will Acquire at Least One Social Media Platform: As I just noted, building a powerful presence in social media is critical for Google. Google+ is currently just one piece of this. So is YouTube (which is linked to Google+ via the commenting system), and no one will dispute the success of YouTube. But, this is not enough. I think they are looking for other ways to develop a strong presence in social media.
I don't think that the acquisition targets will be any of the current top players (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest). I think that the targets will be smaller up and coming players that can fit into their social media portfolio.
6. Bing Will Focus Their Business on Embedded Partnerships: At the November Web Summit conference in Dublin, Bing's Stefan Weitz talked about Bing's focus:
The question is, where is search really going? It’s unlikely we’re going to take share in [the pure search] space, but in machine learning, natural language search… and how we can make search more part of living. For us, it’s less about Bing.com, though that’s still important. It’s really about how we can instead weave the tech into things you’re already doing.
Look to Bing to keep working on partnerships to embed search technology in other people's devices and apps, and to acquire companies with devices or apps that they can enhance with search technology.
7. Yahoo Will Continue to Build Their Presence in Search: Yahoo's Marissa Mayer was recently able to complete a deal with Mozilla Corp to take over as the default search engine in Firefox. This was just a start for Yahoo, and you should expect that they will pursue more such opportunities.
This will put them head to head with Bing in pursuing these types of strategies. This creates an interesting dynamic because the Yahoo - Bing search partnership arrangement is due to last until July of 2019, so there is a long way to go there yet! But, Yahoo will work around the edges of this deal in as many ways as possible. One way or another, Yahoo is staying in search.
8. The EU Will Continue to Go After Google: It's no secret that the European Union is not fond of Google. To be sure, much of this is because of the ignorance of many regulators on how the Interwebs work, but, there is also the very real concern with how important Google has become.
Google is more powerful, and independent of, most governments. This has come about because the value of their service is so high, and so far ahead of competition. You can say what you want about their motives/morality/evilness, but the basic fact of their power does raise concerns.
I, for one, believe they remain a pretty ethical organization (not perfect, but better than most), but that does not mean that this will last indefinitely. The EU is going to continue pushing them hard. Don't be surprised if you see some shocking rulings coming out of Europe.
9. Net Neutrality Will Suffer a Setback in the US: I hate this prediction, but I do believe there is a decent chance that network neutrality will take a hit this year. A ruling is expected out of the FCC early this year. This could mean that network carriers can start treating service providers differently. For example, they could choose to lower bandwidth for YouTube videos, either to offer a competing service, or to make YouTube pay fees to get higher bandwidth.
This would severely hamper the fundamental freedoms which the Internet provides. I know, you may disagree with what I just wrote about that, and this is your right. But whether or not you agree with me on whether or not this is good or bad, I do believe that there will be some changes to Network Neutrality in the US in 2015. Hopefully, they will be small ones!
Summary
There are 9 predictions for you for 2015. I'd love to hear what your thoughts are on what will happen in the coming year. Let me know what you think in the comments below!
