Kevin Love
The Cavs must take into consideration Kevin Love's contract situation before trading for him.
(AP)
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- It will take at least two years. That's what most Cavaliers fans probably don't want to hear.
But even with LeBron James, the Cavs probably will need two years to play for a title. Is that a fact? No. A decent guess? Yes.
That's why the Cavs must receive at least a two-year commitment from Love. He is under contract for $15.7 million this season. He has a player option for $16.7 million in 2015-16.
If Love refuses to pick it up right now, the Cavs drop any trade offer. Yes, Love averaged 26 points and 12 rebounds for Minnesota last season. But the Cavs can't risk trading top pick Andrew Wiggins and others and have Love leave after a single season.
In fact, the idea of trading Wiggins really bothers me -- and I'm not sure I would do it. But my main point of any deal involving Love demands a change in his current contract status -- even if Wiggins is not a part of it.
While 'sources' have said Love is interested in signing long term because of James, do we really know that? Love knows James signed a two-year, $41 million deal -- with the second season a player option. James did it to cash in on the new NBA television contract expected in 2016, which should dramatically increase the cash available for maximum contracts.
What if Love says, "Hey, my deal right now is just like LeBron's. It's a guarantee for this year, a player option for 2015-16. Why should I change that?"
Odds are that James isn't going anywhere for at least a few years. Northeast Ohio is home to him. Love grew up in Oregon. Suppose he is traded to the Cavs, and the first year is very rocky.
Hey, it could happen. Rookie coach. Lots of new players. A team with the NBA's worst record in the last four years. Add in very few players with postseason experience -- Mike Miller, Anderson Varejao, James Jones and James being the only ones.
The presence of James virtually guarantees a playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference. But who knows how far they will advance? A year from now, Love could hit the open market -- and the Lakers could make him very rich as they will have a lot of salary cap space.
Miami Heat's Dwyane Wade (3), Chris Bosh and LeBron James needed a full season before learning what it means to be a championship team.
A TITLE IN ONE YEAR?
Yes, the Cavs need to make aggressive moves to capitalize on the return of James. And yes, James is heading into his 12th season and will be 30 in December, so this is not time for a long rebuild. But it should be viewed as a two-year project.
Consider the 2010-11 Miami Heat. Dwyane Wade recruited Chris Bosh and James to join him.
Do you know what Miami did the season before James? It was 47-35 and made the playoffs. That was not a bad team. Miami replaced Quentin Richardson, Michael Beasley and Jermaine O'Neal with James and Bosh. The Heat also had Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem, and Erik Spoelstra was entering his third season as head coach.
Spoelstra had records of 43-49 and 47-35, losing in the first round of the playoffs both years. In other words, he had some experience as a head coach in the NBA -- and some success.
The Heat opened the first year with Wade, James and Bosh with a 12-10 record. They finished 58-24, reaching The Finals. They were then wiped out by Dallas. It really wasn't until the second season that Miami had the look of a true champion.
David Blatt will have a learning curve as the Cavs rookie head coach.
THE REALITY
The Cavs front office and their fans need to remember this. Just as they need to remember that David Blatt is a very experienced and successful Euroleague coach -- but this is his rookie NBA season in any capacity.
Nor has Blatt ever coached in a long NBA-playoff type series. Overseas, tournaments are single-elimination or a form of round-robin. You don't play best-of-seven against the same team.
It will take Blatt time to develop a system that fits Kyrie Irving, James and Love (assuming a trade is made). He also will need time to get to know the NBA teams and players. Furthermore, his first exposure to the playoffs will probably bring some difficult surprises.
To expect the Cavs to win 60 games -- as some media people do -- is wildly optimistic in the first season.
Yes, Boston added Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to Paul Pierce and finished 66-16, winning the 2008 NBA title in their first year together. But those three were all between 30-32 years old. The coach was Doc Rivers, lots of NBA experience. They had two veterans in James Posey and Eddie House, along with promising youngsters Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins. A lot came together quickly.
Even with Love, the Cavs lack that experienced star power.
That's why the Cavs must secure a minimum of a two-year commitment for Love, or no deal should be made.