Stocks were reeling again Monday, as technology and energy shares paced steep declines in U.S. markets alongside the latest fall in crude oil and a further flight into the supposed safety of Treasuries.
The major averages dropped more than 2%, with the Dow Jones industrial average shedding 375 points to 15,829. The S&P 500 fell to 1,832, down 48 points.
Energy was easily the hardest hit sector, with bankruptcy worries lopping 50% off
Banks were faring no better, with the biggest in the U.S. falling sharply Monday.
JPM Price to Book Value data by YCharts
J.P. Morgan's global equity research team warned clients not to step in front of the southbound stock train in a note Monday, even if bottom-fishing feels tempting.
More than 40% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are at least 20% below their highs, J.P. Morgan notes, but any relief rallies likely won't last. "[I]n '11, this ratio was as high as 60% and that was even without a recession materializing," writes J.P. Morgan's Mislav Matejka. "In '08, the ratio rocketed to 95%, more than double current levels."
The stabilization that would signal a market bottom is nowhere to be seen, the firm notes, a sentiment shared by Raymond James' chief investment strategist Jeff Saut.
Saut points out "boogiemen" like
Goldman Sachs' David Kostin offered at least a minor reason for optimism in his weekly kickstart note, pointing out that the wind-down of fourth-quarter earnings season means corporate buybacks should resume in the weeks ahead.
"A flood of new authorizations have boosted the already ample store of 'dry powder' for buybacks in 2016," Kostin writes, pointing to $60 billion of new program announcements year-to-date. That's great if management teams see this year's market weakness as a reason to buy shares at cheaper prices than they did last year, but not so great if they get just as skittish as investors.
Buybacks and M&A have been the greatest source of demand for U.S. stocks since 2010. "We expect this pattern will repeat in 2016," Goldman says. Among the companies that could benefit are those that have returned the most capital (on a percentage basis) to shareholders over the trailing four quarters. Firms like
There was little reason to think anything like that was happening Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 1.74%, crude oil fell back below $30 a barrel and so-called "safety stocks" were holding up better than most, but in the red. Utilities were the best-performing sector, down only about 1%, while telecom giants