Which American airports are most likely to leave passengers stranded?
By A.W. | WASHINGTON, DC
FOR business travellers in America late last month, Winter Storm Jonas was a massive headache. More than 10,000 flights were cancelled the weekend the storm hit, and cancellations continued into the next week. Political reporters and campaign workers trying to get to Iowa in preparation for the first votes in the country’s presidential race found themselves stranded a thousand miles away. (For Gulliver’s parents, forced to spend an extra four days on the beach in Puerto Rico before they could nab a return flight to Newark, the consequences were less dire.)
Each disruptive winter storm raises a question among business travellers: can such hassles be avoided? Predicting the weather more than a few days out is generally a futile task, but should road warriors avoid certain American cities at certain times of the year to minimise their risk of being marooned far from home or work?
Yes and no. On a broad level, there are certain airports that are always more likely to suffer delays, regardless of the season. The worst, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight, is LaGuardia in New York, where delays add an average of nearly an hour to round trips through the airport. Unfortunately, decamping to a nearby competitor isn’t going to ease the pain: the other two airports serving New York—JFK and Newark—are the second and third worst for delays, respectively, due largely to the huge volume of traffic flowing through them. (In a cruel twist, the city where you are least likely to be delayed is the one in which you might most prefer to be stranded: Honolulu.)
But how about in the winter? Monthly data from the Department of Transportation offer some helpful guidance. One approach is to look back at the stats from one year ago, February 2015. (February is the snowiest month in some parts of the country, so it is an instructive example.) In that month, LaGuardia had an abysmal track record, with the lowest percentage of on-time arrivals (52.6%) and departures (56.5%). In other words, if this February is like the last one, you’ll have little better than even odds of taking off or landing on time. Boston and Chicago’s airports were the next worst for on-time arrival and departures, while Salt Lake City and Portland fared best.
Annoying as delays may be, what business travellers really want to avoid is cancellations. The government data aren’t as helpful here in breaking that down by airport, but there are certain airlines to avoid. Last February, Envoy Air, an American Airlines subsidiary, had the most frequent cancellations: more than 14% of all flights. Next were ExpressJet, JetBlue and American itself. Hawaiian Airlines had the fewest, with just three cancellations out of 5,779 flights.
But not all delays and cancellations are due to the elements. How about weather delays specifically? Last February, the worst airline in this category was Virgin America, 2.7% of whose flights either took-off or landed late due to extreme weather. The best was Alaska Airlines.
This is where things start to seem paradoxical. How could it be that snowy Alaska and Salt Lake City perform so well in the winter? Partly it is that they don’t get the same traffic volumes as places like New York, and so are better equipped to handle disruptions. But the main reason is that extreme weather just isn’t a huge factor in flight delays. Last February, 1% of all flights were delayed due to extreme weather. Compare that to the 7.8% that were held up because the aircraft arrived late. In other words, weather delays are pretty rare, even in the winter. You are better off choosing a well-managed airline and airport to fly through.
And there is one final twist. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, the months when American flights experience the most weather-related delays are May, June and July. That’s right: summer rain and thunderstorms are significantly more likely to set you back than winter snow.
So do yourself a favour and forget the weather. Book your winter travel and hope for the best. But maybe try to avoid LaGuardia.
