Gulliver | Grounds for fear

American travellers may be focused on the wrong terrorist threat

By A.W. | WASHINGTON, DC

EVEN before it has begun, the joy of this year’s holiday season has already been shaded by a tinge of fear. When the New York Times and CBS News asked people across America in April whether they expected a terrorist attack in the United States in the next few months, just 44% said it was very likely or somewhat likely. When they asked the same question this month, that figure had climbed to 79%.

In between, of course, came two of the most horrific acts of terror since September 11th: the attacks on Paris on November 13th and the shootings that killed 14 people in San Bernardino, California, on December 2nd. Last month, the U.S. State Department issued a worldwide travel alert, warning of the “possible risks of travel due to increased terrorist threats”. Americans are now more concerned about the dangers posed by terrorism than they have been at any time since the immediate aftermath of the World Trade Center attacks.

Yet their anxiety doesn’t seem to be affecting their travel plans—or maybe just barely. Yahoo Travel polled 2,670 American adults, of whom 1,000 plan to travel during the holiday season. Half of them said the recent terror attacks hadn’t changed their feelings about travelling. An additional 44% said they were more nervous to travel, but wouldn’t change their plans. Only 6% reported that they had changed at least some portion of their plans due to terrorism fears.

Americans may be a courageous bunch in the face of terror. But their fears may also be misplaced. Travel worries tend to centre on the skies, particularly with 9/11 still fresh in the collective memory. But security experts say the much greater risks are on the ground. The government has focused its efforts on airports, leaving vulnerabilities at train stations and on local public transit systems. As a recent congressional report noted, “Passenger rail systems—primarily subway systems—in the United States carry about five times as many passengers each day as do airlines, over many thousands of miles of track, serving stations that are designed primarily for easy access.”

Tom Ridge, the country’s first secretary of Homeland Security under George W. Bush, pointed to the recent attack by a gunman on a train from Amsterdam to Paris as evidence of the security gaps in the rail system. “By nature, I’m not an alarmist,” he told the New York Times, “but when you see the attempted attack on the train in Europe that was stopped by the three Americans, it would be cavalier of us to think it won’t happen here.”

Travellers who are abandoning the skies due to fears of terrorism are probably making the wrong choice, particularly if they are switching to other transit modes instead. But the best choice is to keep the actual risk of terrorism in perspective—in America, you’re more likely to die from being crushed by furniture—travel as you always would, and enjoy the holidays.

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