NASCAR at Dover International Speedway 2015 weather: Lots of unknowns in the forecast

This is one of the most challenging weather forecasts I've worked on in a very long time. Started looking at the forecast for Dover International Speedway back on Tuesday when Hurricane Joaquin was a possible threat for the East Coast. Since then, we've seen the outlook for that storm bring it in right over Dover as of the weekend, to the Carolinas and not making the turn more north and easterly and keeping it away from the United States.

While the expected forecast keeps Hurricane Joaquin at a safe distance from Dover, Del. and the eastern coast of the United States, there are other features that will keep the threat of rain around the Monster Mile all weekend long.

Stalled boundary will linger off the coast of Delaware and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. That along with the upper-level storm system over the southeastern United States where major flooding will occur in North Carolina, and especially South Carolina where rain amounts will be between 4 to 8 inches by Monday with some places seeing 10 inches or more. For Delaware, rain amounts could range between 1 to 2 inches for the weekend.

Friday is definite soaker and it is very unlikely we will see much if any on track activity at the Monster Mile. I give the odds of anything happening on Friday 15 percent or less. It will also be very windy on Friday with winds out of the north-northeast between 15 to 25 mph and gust reaching 30 mph or more.

Saturday and Sunday are tricky because we are still not 100 percent sure the track Joaquin will take and exactly how it will influence the weather over Dover. With a stalled boundary near Delaware and moisture streaming in off the Atlantic thanks to the upper-level storm system to the southeast and possibly from Hurricane Joaquin, there is plenty of moisture to work with and cause areas of showers. I expect to see off-and-on showers Saturday. With that said, it does look drier than Friday but there could be delays and even some on track activities cancelled as well as the Xfinity race. Odds of racing Saturday afternoon are between 40 and 50 percent. Winds will also be strong this weekend with northeast winds between 15 to 25 mph and gust up to 30 to 35 mph.

As for Sunday, weather information is all over the place, but right now I am going with scattered showers. Delays could very well be possible and depending on timing of any rain we get, a Monday race can't be ruled out. It's possible they could get some racing in on Sunday but confidence is still relatively low. My odds of racing the Sprint Cup race Sunday are a little better, but still between 45 to 55 percent.

This forecast will be ever changing and while I feel pretty confident Hurricane Joaquin will stay out over the Atlantic and make a turn to the northeast. Stranger things have happened with tropical systems. I don't trust the weather features that are around Dover this weekend making my thinking a little more pessimistic.

While some forecasts have Monday wet, I think if NASCAR is forced to move Sunday's race to Monday it would be drier than Sunday. You can see my detailed weather forecast below.

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Conditions in Dover, Del.: Click here for Current Weather Conditions | Look at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site |Mobile Radar

FRIDAY:
11 a.m. ET
Sprint Cup Series practice – Rain, heavy at times, windy and cool – temp: 55
1:30 p.m. ET
Xfinity Series final practice – Rain, some heavy at times, windy and cool – temp: 56
3:45 p.m. ET
Sprint Cup Series qualifying – Rain, some heavy at times, windy and cool – temp: 54

SATURDAY:
11 a.m. ET
Sprint Cup Series practice – Chance of a rain shower, windy – temp: 61
12:15 p.m. ET
Xfinity Series qualifying – Chance of a rain shower, windy – temp: 63
2 p.m. ET
Sprint Cup Series final practice – Possible shower and windy – temp: 62
3:30 p.m. ET
Xfinity Race – Possible shower and windy – temp: 62

SUNDAY:
1:30 p.m. ET
Sprint Cup Pre-race – Cloudy, windy, with a chance of a shower – temp: 68
2:30 p.m. ET
Sprint Cup Race – Cloudy, windy, with a chance of a shower – temp: 67
3:30 p.m. ET
Sprint Cup Race – Cloudy, windy, with a chance of a shower – temp: 67
4:30 p.m. ET
Sprint Cup Race – Cloudy, windy, with a chance of a shower – temp: 66
5:30 p.m. ET
Sprint Cup Race – Cloudy, windy, with a chance of a shower – temp: 66

Sunset at Dover: 6:41 p.m. EDT

MONDAY (If needed):
Clouds, some sunshine, chance of a shower or two. Winds will remain breezy and afternoon temperatures near 70 degrees.