Today is August 3rd. Temperatures are hovering around 90 degrees in New York, with heat indicies well into the 90s. Air conditioners are cranking, and standing in a subway station for more than a few minutes is bordering on unbearable. And despite all this, there are several beer stores in the city that are already carrying pumpkin beer.
And you might be thinking, “that’s absurd. It’s way too early for pumpkin beer.”
And for years, I told you that you were right. And you’re still right, in the sense that if you associate pumpkin beers with the fall, it’s not fall yet. The calendar tells us that.
But unfortunately, whether the growing seasonal creep of pumpkin beers conditioned us or not, there are compelling business reasons for pumpkin beers to be released in August. Here’s why.
1. Pumpkin beer is far more popular than any other seasonal beer trend.
Google Trends is great for helping us judge the popularity of certain styles of beer based on search traffic. The comparison above shows us that when compared to the simple seasonal search terms like “summer beer” and “winter beer,” “pumpkin beer” is more than twice as popular a search term than its closest rival.
The sales data suggests that seasonal beer accounts for up to 25% of craft beer sales volume – and given that pumpkin beer is the most popular of the seasonal beer styles, it is vital to craft brewers’ bottom lines.
2. Pumpkin beer’s season is fast and furious.
Looking closer at Google Trends’ pumpkin beer interest last year, it’s clear when it ends: the last day of October. Pumpkin beer search volume drops like a rock the week after Halloween. It dropped 45% between the last week of October and first week of November in 2012, 55% in 2013, and a whopping 70% in 2014.
More surprisingly, interest in pumpkin beer starts to grow this week. In 2014, search volume for the style was actually higher in the week of August 3rd than in the week of November 2nd. While popularity of pumpkin beer has grown in August over the last several years, it hasn’t grown in November. Despite pumpkin beer becoming more popular overall, there appears to be a hard-and-fast point at which consumers stop looking for it: November 1st.
3. Pumpkin beer’s three-month seasonal cycle starts August 1st.
We saw pumpkin beer trend earlier and earlier every year over the past few years, and one reason for that is likely that the industry is adjusting to consumer demand trends. If a brewery releases seasonal beers in a three-month cycle, it would be shrewd to adjust its seasonal releases to its most popular one. If that brewery makes a pumpkin ale, the ideal three-month sales window is, in theory, August 1st to October 31st.
4. Pumpkin beer’s high demand means some of it will be in market before August 1st.
Every brewery has a maximum capacity. In order to meet the demand of the season, continue to brew their core beers, and not exceed that maximum capacity, it’s likely some brewers will have to take other measures in order to deliver enough to the market. Some have contracted the brewing of their pumpkin beer to other breweries, while others start brewing it in May in order to assure they make enough to meet demand. That beer may trickle into the market before August to make room in the warehouse for more. That’s why some markets saw Pumking at the end of June last year, but we here in New York didn’t see it for another month.
5. Pumpkin beer inspires passion among its biggest fans.
On the Southern Tier product page for Pumking, here’s a guy from Florida who’s angry that he can’t find it in mid-July, and a guy from New York who’s angry that he can.
Who’s going to buy more pumpkin beer? I’m guessing the one who puts his bottles in “deep storage” and drinks them in June.