Click here to view or print the entire April report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.
Sales: Alabama residential sales totaling 4,324 units in April reflect an increase of 12.9 percent growth from the same period a year earlier. Sales for the month are 19.7 percent above the five-year April sales average('10-'14) of 3,612 units. Year-to-date sales through April are up 13.0 percent from 2014.
Forecast: April sales were 5.8 percent or 237 units above our monthly forecast. ACRE's year-to-date sales forecast through April projected 14,188 closed transactions while the actual sales were 14,629 units, a 3.1 percent cumulative variance.
Supply: The statewide housing inventory in April was 32,887 units, a decrease of 2.1 percent from April 2014 and 22.9 percent below the month of April peak in 2008 (42,675 units). There was 7.6 months of housing supply in April (7.0+/- months NSA considered equilibrium), which represents a favorable drop of 13.3 percent from April 2014 (8.8 months). April inventory did increase 2.1 percent from the the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data that indicates April inventory on average ('10-'14) increases from the month of March by 2.2 percent.
Demand: April residential sales increased .8 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical statewide data indicating that April sales on average ('10-'14) increase from the month of March by 5.2 percent. This trend is consistent with sentiment expressed by industry professionals in the Center's 2015 Q2 Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The average Days on Market (DOM) until a listing sold was 160 days, 2.0 percent faster than last year. Nationally, April sales were 6.1 percent above the same period last year (SA). See more details of how Alabama compares to the broader US market here.
In April across Alabama, 76 percent of local markets report positive sales growth compared to last April. In comparison, this figure was 80 last month, 68 percent in February, 64 percent in January, and 60 percent in both November and December. Sales during the month were 42.7 percent above the month of April bottom experienced in 2011.
Pricing: The April median sales price slipped 3.6 percent from the same period last year. Despite four years of year-over-year sales gain, many markets still favor the buyer. In April, 15 of 25 or 60 percent of local markets experienced price gains from April 2014. Keep in mind that pricing can fluctuate from month-to-month due to sampling size of data and seasonal buying patterns. The April median sales price was also 1.7 percent below the prior month. This direction contrast with historical data ('10-'14) reflecting that the April median sales price increases 5.1 percent from the month of March.
Seeking Balance: The metro markets in Alabama representing 70 percent of all sales were mostly balanced in April where buyer and seller share equal bargaining power. Outside of the metro markets, Alabama still has a significant level of housing supply in several local markets (14 of 25 markets or 56 percent still have 10.0+ months of supply). The supply of "quality" inventory is impacting sales according to some local professionals with boots on the ground.
National Industry Perspective: "The spring and summer home buying season has gotten off to a stronger start, reflected in some of the improvement in consumer housing sentiment," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "The share of consumers who intend to own rather than rent their next home rebounded after a two-month slide. Meanwhile, home price growth expectations strengthened to the strongest pace since last October. Nevertheless, consumers continue to express concerns about the recent weakening economic conditions...When we consider both the continued caution of consumers and the positive start to the year, we believe that these results support our expectation that 2015 will be a year of modest growth in housing activity." For full report, go HERE.
This monthly report is provided compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.
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The Alabama Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Alabama Association of REALTORS and its local associations.
ACRE was founded by legislative act in 1996 due to the efforts of the Alabama Real Estate Commission, the Alabama Association of REALTORS and the Office of the Dean, UA Culverhouse College of Commerce to serve the State of Alabama real estate industry and the consumers it serves. ACRE is not a state-funded entity, rather its operates in part because of the support of Alabama real estate licensees and goodwill & generosity of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet and our statewide ACRE Partners.
The Alabama Association of REALTORS serves as the voice of the real estate industry in Alabama. AAR is the largest statewide organization of real estate professionals who sale, lease, appraise, and develop residential, commercial, rural and resort properties.
The Alabama Center for Real Estate's core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach. Follow us on twitter at @uaacre.