The Webinar presents the results of a research project on flexibility in the German power sector. It analyses the flexibility demand with a rising share of RES-E and compares different flexibility options.
The project consists of a model-based scenario analysis for 2020, 2030 and 2050 and applies the electricity system model PowerFlex together with a European network model to analyze import and export as a flexibility option.
Flexibility becomes an issue only in the scenario 2030 with 60 % RES-E. In 2020 additional flexibility can increase efficiency, but is not essential to run the system or to integrate RES-E.
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webinar/how-demand-flexibility-will-develop-german-power-system
2. 2
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From RES-E development to system integration
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
RES-E
increases
System
Integration and
Transformation
More Flexibility
Demand
A differentiated analysis is required:
• Flexibility demand
• Flexibility options
• Effects of flexibility
• and their evolution.
3. 3
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Analysis of flexibility is based on two models
Dispatch model PowerFlex for
Germany
By Öko-Institut
Written in GAMS, CPLEX solver
Detailed modelling of various of
flexibility options within German
No flexibility demand as a result of
network constraints within
Germany
European network model
By energynautics
European exchange
as a flexibility option
Scenario:
EU Roadmap
Diversified Supply
4. 4
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Flexibility options between networks and markets
1. Flexibility options to manage network constraints
• To what extent can storage and demand side management
(DSM) replace network upgrades?
• How often will these options actually be called from network
operators?
2. Flexibility options to balance generation and demand
• Storage and DSM should primarily be dispatched based on
market signals.
How can network and market requirements be coordinated?
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
5. 5
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Residual load
Demand
RES-E generation
Residual load
Residual load curve shows the amount of capacity that is needed on top of
RES-E per hour.
The capacity can be positive or negative.
Subtracting the electricity generated by variable renewable power plants from
the demand leads to the residual load curve.
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
6. 6
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Residual load duration curve
Only Demand
and RES-E
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
Modelled
residual load -
incl. flexibility
already in
place
What are the functions and values of additional flexibility?
7. 7
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Different flexibility functions and values
Deficit:
Flexibility can
replace plant
capacity
Surplus:
Flexibility substitutes
conventional
generation
Supply = Demand:
Competition with existing flexibility options by
1) Increased efficiency
2) High value from replacing fossil with RES-E
generation
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
hours per
year
GW
8. 8
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Which options can be used?
Deficits:
New flexible
power plants
Load Management
(Reduction)
Import
Surplus:
Flexibilization of power plants
Load Management (Increase)
Use of „excess energy“ in other
sectors
Export
RES-E curtailment
Supply = Demand:
Load Management (Shifting and Reduction)
Storages with high efficiencies;
Flexible cogeneration
Competition with present options via variable
cost or efficiencies
Shifting surpluses to deficits
Storage and load management (shifting)
Virtual storages
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
9. 9
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Residual load duration curve for Germany
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
40 % RES-E 60 % RES-E 75 % RES-E 100 % RES-E
Hours of the year [h]
No significant peak reduction
More hours with RES-E surplus
10. 10
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Development of flexibility demand: deficit and surplus,
Existing flexibility; no import and export
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
-80
-60
-40
-20
-
20
40
60
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
GW
Hours
ca. 40% RES-E ca. 61% RES-E ca. 75% RES-E40 % RES-E 60 % RES-E 75 % RES-E
11. 11
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Scenario 2030 for Germany, ca. 60% RES-E
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
748
7.275
1.464
8.394 4.308 1.210 2.869 2.004
-1.0022.170 1.327 0
- -
-
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20.000
MW
Reduction of flexibility demand
Used potentials
Not used for deficit reduction
12. 12
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Linking the electricity sector to other sectors
Power-to-Gas, Power-to-heat etc often seen as a way to provide
flexibility to the electricity sector.
However, it is mainly a way to use renewables in other sectors.
• This needs to be done in a flexible way.
Linking sectors can also lead to additional inflexibility, e.g. limited
flexibility of heat demand profile.
Systems that can use power and other sources are preferable,
e.g. power-to-heat.
If additional consumers are introduced too early, there is a
danger of increasing conventional sources
L2H: Lignite-to-heat
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Economic ranking of options
What is the cheapest combination of options to meet flexibility
demand?
• Focussing on the capacity deficit
• 2030 snapshot
Result
• DSM, especially industry and commerce/trade/services
• CHP with heat storage
• Electric vehicles: Smart charging (needed anyway)
• Plus load curtailment for a few hours needed
Other combinations are possible – but storage not yet required.
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
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Full Costs of Flexibility Options
depending on full load hours
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
DSM
Gas turbine
CAES
PHS
Battery
P2G H2
P2G CH4
Interruptible Loads
Reference:Öko-Institute.V.(2014).
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
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Flexibility Roadmap
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Scenario year /
RES-E share
2020
ca. 40%
2030
ca. 61%
2050
ca. 75%
Flexibility
demand and
options
No deficits,
Very low surpluses
New flexibility
competes against
existing options
Relevant surpluses
and especially deficits
Sufficient flexibility
options available
Longer deficit periods
long-term storage
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
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Conclusions
Adding RES-E capacity increases the demand for flexibility.
Flexibility options should be developed.
However, RES-E flexibility is not a bottleneck that should slow
down progress in setting up RES-E.
• A lot of flexibility can be provided by the options already in
place, i.e. mainly conventional plants.
• lower full load hours!
• There are a number of additional options available in current
systems that can be exploited to cover that demand.
• Flexible CHP, Power-to-heat, DSM
• especially when electricity exchange between MS is used
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter