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Flexibility Options for RES-E Integration
Dr. Dierk Bauknecht, David Ritter
Leonardo Energy Webinar
17 March 2015
2
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From RES-E development to system integration
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
RES-E
increases
System
Integration and
Transformation
More Flexibility
Demand
A differentiated analysis is required:
• Flexibility demand
• Flexibility options
• Effects of flexibility
• and their evolution.
3
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Analysis of flexibility is based on two models
Dispatch model PowerFlex for
Germany
By Öko-Institut
Written in GAMS, CPLEX solver
Detailed modelling of various of
flexibility options within German
No flexibility demand as a result of
network constraints within
Germany
European network model
By energynautics
European exchange
as a flexibility option
Scenario:
EU Roadmap
Diversified Supply
4
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Flexibility options between networks and markets
1. Flexibility options to manage network constraints
• To what extent can storage and demand side management
(DSM) replace network upgrades?
• How often will these options actually be called from network
operators?
2. Flexibility options to balance generation and demand
• Storage and DSM should primarily be dispatched based on
market signals.
 How can network and market requirements be coordinated?
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
5
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Residual load
Demand
RES-E generation
Residual load
Residual load curve shows the amount of capacity that is needed on top of
RES-E per hour.
The capacity can be positive or negative.
Subtracting the electricity generated by variable renewable power plants from
the demand leads to the residual load curve.
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
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Residual load duration curve
Only Demand
and RES-E
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
Modelled
residual load -
incl. flexibility
already in
place
What are the functions and values of additional flexibility?
7
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Different flexibility functions and values
Deficit:
Flexibility can
replace plant
capacity
Surplus:
Flexibility substitutes
conventional
generation
Supply = Demand:
Competition with existing flexibility options by
1) Increased efficiency
2) High value from replacing fossil with RES-E
generation
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
hours per
year
GW
8
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Which options can be used?
Deficits:
New flexible
power plants
Load Management
(Reduction)
Import
Surplus:
Flexibilization of power plants
Load Management (Increase)
Use of „excess energy“ in other
sectors
Export
RES-E curtailment
Supply = Demand:
Load Management (Shifting and Reduction)
Storages with high efficiencies;
Flexible cogeneration
Competition with present options via variable
cost or efficiencies
Shifting surpluses to deficits
Storage and load management (shifting)
Virtual storages
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
9
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Residual load duration curve for Germany
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
40 % RES-E 60 % RES-E 75 % RES-E 100 % RES-E
Hours of the year [h]
No significant peak reduction
More hours with RES-E surplus
10
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Development of flexibility demand: deficit and surplus,
Existing flexibility; no import and export
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
-80
-60
-40
-20
-
20
40
60
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
GW
Hours
ca. 40% RES-E ca. 61% RES-E ca. 75% RES-E40 % RES-E 60 % RES-E 75 % RES-E
11
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Scenario 2030 for Germany, ca. 60% RES-E
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
748
7.275
1.464
8.394 4.308 1.210 2.869 2.004
-1.0022.170 1.327 0
- -
-
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20.000
MW
Reduction of flexibility demand
Used potentials
Not used for deficit reduction
12
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Linking the electricity sector to other sectors
Power-to-Gas, Power-to-heat etc often seen as a way to provide
flexibility to the electricity sector.
However, it is mainly a way to use renewables in other sectors.
• This needs to be done in a flexible way.
Linking sectors can also lead to additional inflexibility, e.g. limited
flexibility of heat demand profile.
Systems that can use power and other sources are preferable,
e.g. power-to-heat.
If additional consumers are introduced too early, there is a
danger of increasing conventional sources
 L2H: Lignite-to-heat
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
13
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Economic ranking of options
What is the cheapest combination of options to meet flexibility
demand?
• Focussing on the capacity deficit
• 2030 snapshot
Result
• DSM, especially industry and commerce/trade/services
• CHP with heat storage
• Electric vehicles: Smart charging (needed anyway)
• Plus load curtailment for a few hours needed
Other combinations are possible – but storage not yet required.
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
14
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Full Costs of Flexibility Options
depending on full load hours
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
DSM
Gas turbine
CAES
PHS
Battery
P2G H2
P2G CH4
Interruptible Loads
Reference:Öko-Institute.V.(2014).
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
15
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Flexibility Roadmap
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Scenario year /
RES-E share
2020
ca. 40%
2030
ca. 61%
2050
ca. 75%
Flexibility
demand and
options
No deficits,
Very low surpluses
New flexibility
competes against
existing options
Relevant surpluses
and especially deficits
Sufficient flexibility
options available
Longer deficit periods
 long-term storage
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
16
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Conclusions
Adding RES-E capacity increases the demand for flexibility.
 Flexibility options should be developed.
However, RES-E flexibility is not a bottleneck that should slow
down progress in setting up RES-E.
• A lot of flexibility can be provided by the options already in
place, i.e. mainly conventional plants.
•  lower full load hours!
• There are a number of additional options available in current
systems that can be exploited to cover that demand.
• Flexible CHP, Power-to-heat, DSM
• especially when electricity exchange between MS is used
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
17
www.oeko.de
Contact
Dr. Dierk Bauknecht
Senior Researcher
Öko-Institut e.V.
Postfach 17 71
79017 Freiburg
Telefon: +49 761 45295-230
E-Mail: d.bauknecht@oeko.de
Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter

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How demand for flexibility will develop in the German power system

  • 1. www.oeko.de Flexibility Options for RES-E Integration Dr. Dierk Bauknecht, David Ritter Leonardo Energy Webinar 17 March 2015
  • 2. 2 www.oeko.de From RES-E development to system integration Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter RES-E increases System Integration and Transformation More Flexibility Demand A differentiated analysis is required: • Flexibility demand • Flexibility options • Effects of flexibility • and their evolution.
  • 3. 3 www.oeko.de Analysis of flexibility is based on two models Dispatch model PowerFlex for Germany By Öko-Institut Written in GAMS, CPLEX solver Detailed modelling of various of flexibility options within German No flexibility demand as a result of network constraints within Germany European network model By energynautics European exchange as a flexibility option Scenario: EU Roadmap Diversified Supply
  • 4. 4 www.oeko.de Flexibility options between networks and markets 1. Flexibility options to manage network constraints • To what extent can storage and demand side management (DSM) replace network upgrades? • How often will these options actually be called from network operators? 2. Flexibility options to balance generation and demand • Storage and DSM should primarily be dispatched based on market signals.  How can network and market requirements be coordinated? Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
  • 5. 5 www.oeko.de Residual load Demand RES-E generation Residual load Residual load curve shows the amount of capacity that is needed on top of RES-E per hour. The capacity can be positive or negative. Subtracting the electricity generated by variable renewable power plants from the demand leads to the residual load curve. Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
  • 6. 6 www.oeko.de Residual load duration curve Only Demand and RES-E Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter Modelled residual load - incl. flexibility already in place What are the functions and values of additional flexibility?
  • 7. 7 www.oeko.de Different flexibility functions and values Deficit: Flexibility can replace plant capacity Surplus: Flexibility substitutes conventional generation Supply = Demand: Competition with existing flexibility options by 1) Increased efficiency 2) High value from replacing fossil with RES-E generation Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter hours per year GW
  • 8. 8 www.oeko.de Which options can be used? Deficits: New flexible power plants Load Management (Reduction) Import Surplus: Flexibilization of power plants Load Management (Increase) Use of „excess energy“ in other sectors Export RES-E curtailment Supply = Demand: Load Management (Shifting and Reduction) Storages with high efficiencies; Flexible cogeneration Competition with present options via variable cost or efficiencies Shifting surpluses to deficits Storage and load management (shifting) Virtual storages Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
  • 9. 9 www.oeko.de Residual load duration curve for Germany Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter 40 % RES-E 60 % RES-E 75 % RES-E 100 % RES-E Hours of the year [h] No significant peak reduction More hours with RES-E surplus
  • 10. 10 www.oeko.de Development of flexibility demand: deficit and surplus, Existing flexibility; no import and export Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter -80 -60 -40 -20 - 20 40 60 1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001 GW Hours ca. 40% RES-E ca. 61% RES-E ca. 75% RES-E40 % RES-E 60 % RES-E 75 % RES-E
  • 11. 11 www.oeko.de Scenario 2030 for Germany, ca. 60% RES-E Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter 748 7.275 1.464 8.394 4.308 1.210 2.869 2.004 -1.0022.170 1.327 0 - - - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 20.000 MW Reduction of flexibility demand Used potentials Not used for deficit reduction
  • 12. 12 www.oeko.de Linking the electricity sector to other sectors Power-to-Gas, Power-to-heat etc often seen as a way to provide flexibility to the electricity sector. However, it is mainly a way to use renewables in other sectors. • This needs to be done in a flexible way. Linking sectors can also lead to additional inflexibility, e.g. limited flexibility of heat demand profile. Systems that can use power and other sources are preferable, e.g. power-to-heat. If additional consumers are introduced too early, there is a danger of increasing conventional sources  L2H: Lignite-to-heat Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
  • 13. 13 www.oeko.de Economic ranking of options What is the cheapest combination of options to meet flexibility demand? • Focussing on the capacity deficit • 2030 snapshot Result • DSM, especially industry and commerce/trade/services • CHP with heat storage • Electric vehicles: Smart charging (needed anyway) • Plus load curtailment for a few hours needed Other combinations are possible – but storage not yet required. Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
  • 14. 14 www.oeko.de Full Costs of Flexibility Options depending on full load hours 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001 DSM Gas turbine CAES PHS Battery P2G H2 P2G CH4 Interruptible Loads Reference:Öko-Institute.V.(2014). Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
  • 15. 15 www.oeko.de Flexibility Roadmap Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Scenario year / RES-E share 2020 ca. 40% 2030 ca. 61% 2050 ca. 75% Flexibility demand and options No deficits, Very low surpluses New flexibility competes against existing options Relevant surpluses and especially deficits Sufficient flexibility options available Longer deficit periods  long-term storage Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
  • 16. 16 www.oeko.de Conclusions Adding RES-E capacity increases the demand for flexibility.  Flexibility options should be developed. However, RES-E flexibility is not a bottleneck that should slow down progress in setting up RES-E. • A lot of flexibility can be provided by the options already in place, i.e. mainly conventional plants. •  lower full load hours! • There are a number of additional options available in current systems that can be exploited to cover that demand. • Flexible CHP, Power-to-heat, DSM • especially when electricity exchange between MS is used Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter
  • 17. 17 www.oeko.de Contact Dr. Dierk Bauknecht Senior Researcher Öko-Institut e.V. Postfach 17 71 79017 Freiburg Telefon: +49 761 45295-230 E-Mail: d.bauknecht@oeko.de Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter