Google's dashboard that tracks the versions of Android OS being used has been updated with numbers from January 2015, and it shows Lollipop's non-existent impact on Android devices. Version five of Mountain View's mobile operating system has not even gathered the minimum 0.1% of usage to show up in the charts.
Lollipop was announced in June 2014 at Google's annual I/O conference, source code was released on November 3rd 2014, and the first over-the-air updates were available from November 12th 2014 (for a number of Google Nexus devices). Since then, Samsung has started a limited roll-out of Android 5.0 in Central Europe, Motorola and LG have started deployment to a few key devices, and Sony has promised to start the updates to its Xperia line 'during 2015'.
Still, you would have expected Lollipop to show up even a little bit, But no. Given the Android dashboard does not report any version of Android that does not reach a 0.1% share, the actual uptake of Lollipop could be even smaller than the 0.1% mark.
Android 4.4 (Kitkat) is now the most popular version of Android, with 39.1% of all devices connecting to the Google Play Store in the seven-day period ending January 5th 2015 running that variant. Historically, Kitkat reached a 1.1% share within four weeks of its release in a similar timeframe at the end of 2013.
Why has Lollipop only achieved less than a tenth of the Kitkat distribution? As with every version of Android, Google does not have a direct relationship with the customers' OS. Any new version of the OS has to be passed to the manufacturers, who then tailor it to each handset and the individual SKU's of that handset, which are then passed to networks for testing and certification, and then the system to push the over-the-air update to subscribers can begin.
For whatever reason, the manufacturers have stalled on this latest roll-out. Maybe they need more time to adapt their own apps to Google's new 'Material' design that is infused into Android 5.0, maybe there are some budgetary pressures reducing engineering time, maybe a subtle message about control and direction is being communicated back to Google. Arguably manufacturers would rather consumers buy new handsets running Android 5.0 and boost their revenue, rather than a free over-the-air update which offers no new revenue stream.
Irrespective of the reasons, the rollout of Lollipop is not going smoothly. Google is spending a huge amount of time and momentum to push the message out of the new operating system. Meanwhile two bug-fix updates have already been announced, and at the current rate the fixes in Android 5.1 might not be available to consumers before the end of July 2015.
Contrast this to Apple. While iOS 8 has had its fair share of bugs to hunt down, 70% of iOS devices are now running the latest version of Apple's mobile OS (data via Mixpanel). It reached a 48.8% share (and overtook iOS 7 with 47.2%) twenty-nine days after it was released.
I expect Android Lollipop to start showing up in reasonable numbers during Q1 and Q2 of 2015. With a number of key devices expected to be launched in this period running the new version of the OS (such as the next Samsung Galaxy, which everyone expects to be called the Galaxy S6), these will increase the number of Lollipop handsets connecting to the Google Play
But these numbers illustrate a systemic issue in the Android ecosystem. The underlying operating system cannot be updated with any haste. Google can talk about design changes, united user interfaces, and smart design, but if it takes more than a year for a stable version to reach consumers, Android will forever be behind the technology curve. Manufacturers can talk about over-the-air updates, the ability to patch security holes as required, and maintaining a secure platform, but if bug-fixes can be announced in December but not be made available until July, seven months is a long window for hackers to exploit.
Some small steps have been taken to patch up some of the issues. One area is the use of Google Play Services for many functions is now on a six-week roll-out using the Google Play Store update mechanism, but this cannot address all the issues. Google's Android One project gives Mountain View the right to update the OS directly with no interference from the manufacturers, although Android One is still in its infancy.
Unfortunately this system of approval by multiple organisations and extended periods between announcement and availability is the system that Google has built. The slow roll-out and delays should not be an acceptable part of a fast-moving mobile world. The design of Android updates is broken, and I'm struggling to see an easy way to fix this issue.
(Now read why the Android eco-system still needs Google for its survival).
